Paul Mitchell
@paulmitche11.bsky.social
Owner of Redistricting Partners, Vice President of Political Data, Cat 3 cyclist, Cat 1 dad. First Partner of CA Planned Parenthood.
Sarah! Hope all is well!
August 18, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Sarah! Hope all is well!
The next report comes Friday, but there could be newer information from
Political Data before then on additional ballots received by the county, and where those are from will be telling.
Political Data before then on additional ballots received by the county, and where those are from will be telling.
a man wearing a suit and tie is standing in a field of yellow flowers
ALT: a man wearing a suit and tie is standing in a field of yellow flowers
media.tenor.com
April 16, 2025 at 6:26 PM
The next report comes Friday, but there could be newer information from
Political Data before then on additional ballots received by the county, and where those are from will be telling.
Political Data before then on additional ballots received by the county, and where those are from will be telling.
There is also a distinct geographic split, and these voters in the hills are traditionally earlier voters, so ballots that are received in the coming days from renters and younger voters... again, that looks like a chance for @BarbaraLee_CA to pull this out.
April 16, 2025 at 6:26 PM
There is also a distinct geographic split, and these voters in the hills are traditionally earlier voters, so ballots that are received in the coming days from renters and younger voters... again, that looks like a chance for @BarbaraLee_CA to pull this out.
One theory of the case is that older voters cast their ballots earlier, and they have known and voted for Barbara Lee for decades... But another theory is that renters and younger vote later, and her stances on Gaza and progressive causes helps her with these later voters.
a man in a blue shirt says i 'm playing both sides
ALT: a man in a blue shirt says i 'm playing both sides
media.tenor.com
April 16, 2025 at 6:26 PM
One theory of the case is that older voters cast their ballots earlier, and they have known and voted for Barbara Lee for decades... But another theory is that renters and younger vote later, and her stances on Gaza and progressive causes helps her with these later voters.
Yeah. Just fyi, those point in time counts aren’t actually measuring how many new registered in each party. If 85 year olds are more likely to be Dem than rep, then more dems are dying too. Or if Dem counties are doing more voter file cleanup then dems will drop. I will look at registrations.
November 26, 2024 at 5:26 AM
Yeah. Just fyi, those point in time counts aren’t actually measuring how many new registered in each party. If 85 year olds are more likely to be Dem than rep, then more dems are dying too. Or if Dem counties are doing more voter file cleanup then dems will drop. I will look at registrations.
I will look at that. What’s your methodology for the counting?
November 26, 2024 at 5:03 AM
I will look at that. What’s your methodology for the counting?