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paulkirkwood.bsky.social
@paulkirkwood.bsky.social
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Another wee push for yesterday's analysis piece; if for some reason the inadvertently candy floss coloured map doesn't draw you in, there is a TL;DR version here, but if you do just read this screengrab you won't see my bit about Anas Sarwar's nightmares or a mildly spiced take on radicalisation.
1. Reform have absolutely devoured the Conservative’s 2021 support. This makes up by far the biggest portion of their voter base with reference to 2021, and combined with specific local reasons leads to especially strong backing in Banffshire, Buchan and Galloway. 2. Having effectively lost their entire gain in support compared to 2019 (and 2021), Labour’s voters are narrowly the biggest portion of Reform’s voter base with reference to 2024. This will reflect some 2021 Conservative to 2024 Labour to 2026 Reform movement. This is being seen most strongly in the mid-Central Belt, where Labour were historically highly successful. 3. Compared to the rest of the UK, where Labour’s losses are seemingly going 2-to-1 to broadly left wing parties versus right wing parties, in Scotland the two destinations are statistically tied. This is likely to reflect ongoing constitutional polarisation with a side helping of radicalisation, which isn’t unique to Scotland but has unique Scottish dimensions. 4. The SNP have lost relatively few of their 2021 voters base to Reform, but given how many voters they had at that election, they make up a sizeable chunk of Reform’s support. However, the past tense there is crucial. They are losing almost none of their 2024 support in that direction. That is made up for by 2024 Labour voters turning (or returning) to the SNP. 5. In general, the Lib Dems are not contributing much of the Reform vote regardless of what election you compare with. However, as a proportion of their own voter base, past Lib Dem voters are more likely than past SNP voters to vote for Reform. Overall, Reform support can therefore be said to be drawn overwhelmingly from the Pro-Union camp.
October 5, 2025 at 3:18 PM