Pat Kerrane
@patkerrane.bsky.social
Austin Ekeler is a legend.
I write and pod about fantasy football at http://LegendaryUpside.com (legendaryupside.bsky.social)
Co-host Ship Chasing podcast.
My posts: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:srg5lf2bjlxso6awlhr5s245/feed/aaaebp76f
I write and pod about fantasy football at http://LegendaryUpside.com (legendaryupside.bsky.social)
Co-host Ship Chasing podcast.
My posts: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:srg5lf2bjlxso6awlhr5s245/feed/aaaebp76f
Welcome to Dallas, George
May 7, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Welcome to Dallas, George
Working on my rookie TE deep dives and and this sums up where I've landed on Harold Fannin.
March 31, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Working on my rookie TE deep dives and and this sums up where I've landed on Harold Fannin.
Tenet was a perfectly cromulent movie
December 23, 2024 at 11:19 PM
Tenet was a perfectly cromulent movie
Thomas Brown has shown a serious willingess to pass, posting 77% and 83% pass rates last two weeks.
But now gets a 49ers defense that is a major run funnel because they're much worse vs. the run than pass.
With Roschon Johnson out, it's a strong setup for D'Andre Swift if he's good to go w/ quad.
But now gets a 49ers defense that is a major run funnel because they're much worse vs. the run than pass.
With Roschon Johnson out, it's a strong setup for D'Andre Swift if he's good to go w/ quad.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Thomas Brown has shown a serious willingess to pass, posting 77% and 83% pass rates last two weeks.
But now gets a 49ers defense that is a major run funnel because they're much worse vs. the run than pass.
With Roschon Johnson out, it's a strong setup for D'Andre Swift if he's good to go w/ quad.
But now gets a 49ers defense that is a major run funnel because they're much worse vs. the run than pass.
With Roschon Johnson out, it's a strong setup for D'Andre Swift if he's good to go w/ quad.
Bills just had fun running in the snow, with a crazy-low 37% pass rate.
They now get a Rams defense that has been a run funnel (bc they're bad against run). But Rams are also bad against the pass.
With the souther California sun shining, this should an efficient day for the entire offense.
They now get a Rams defense that has been a run funnel (bc they're bad against run). But Rams are also bad against the pass.
With the souther California sun shining, this should an efficient day for the entire offense.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Bills just had fun running in the snow, with a crazy-low 37% pass rate.
They now get a Rams defense that has been a run funnel (bc they're bad against run). But Rams are also bad against the pass.
With the souther California sun shining, this should an efficient day for the entire offense.
They now get a Rams defense that has been a run funnel (bc they're bad against run). But Rams are also bad against the pass.
With the souther California sun shining, this should an efficient day for the entire offense.
Cardinals pass defense has vastly improved since earlier in year. But they're still weak against run.
Kenneth Walker has been a boom/bust play but that's partly blocking related. Walker has been much better in success rate than he was last year.
Potenital get right spot for KW3 in this rematch.
Kenneth Walker has been a boom/bust play but that's partly blocking related. Walker has been much better in success rate than he was last year.
Potenital get right spot for KW3 in this rematch.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Cardinals pass defense has vastly improved since earlier in year. But they're still weak against run.
Kenneth Walker has been a boom/bust play but that's partly blocking related. Walker has been much better in success rate than he was last year.
Potenital get right spot for KW3 in this rematch.
Kenneth Walker has been a boom/bust play but that's partly blocking related. Walker has been much better in success rate than he was last year.
Potenital get right spot for KW3 in this rematch.
Steelers passed signficantly more than expected last week. Wilson delivered his best game of the year.
For passing volume, we need the Steelers to be pushed but nice to see it's possible. Browns, who have the highest passing rate in the NFL, will at least try.
Nice spot for Pickens, who is a star.
For passing volume, we need the Steelers to be pushed but nice to see it's possible. Browns, who have the highest passing rate in the NFL, will at least try.
Nice spot for Pickens, who is a star.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Steelers passed signficantly more than expected last week. Wilson delivered his best game of the year.
For passing volume, we need the Steelers to be pushed but nice to see it's possible. Browns, who have the highest passing rate in the NFL, will at least try.
Nice spot for Pickens, who is a star.
For passing volume, we need the Steelers to be pushed but nice to see it's possible. Browns, who have the highest passing rate in the NFL, will at least try.
Nice spot for Pickens, who is a star.
At the end of Daniel Jones era, Daboll shifted toward the run. But he's now back to passing heavily.
Seems likely he was more careful with Jones—whose injury clause got him cut—than he will be moving forward.
Drew Lock was even worse than DeVito last week... but we should have volume, at least.
Seems likely he was more careful with Jones—whose injury clause got him cut—than he will be moving forward.
Drew Lock was even worse than DeVito last week... but we should have volume, at least.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
At the end of Daniel Jones era, Daboll shifted toward the run. But he's now back to passing heavily.
Seems likely he was more careful with Jones—whose injury clause got him cut—than he will be moving forward.
Drew Lock was even worse than DeVito last week... but we should have volume, at least.
Seems likely he was more careful with Jones—whose injury clause got him cut—than he will be moving forward.
Drew Lock was even worse than DeVito last week... but we should have volume, at least.
You'd expect the worst pass defense in the league to be a pass funnel. But the Jaguars really aren't... bc they're also bad against the run.
With Spears back, Tony Pollard still saw a 73% snap share last week, and I expect the Titans to lean on him here against a weak defense, overall.
With Spears back, Tony Pollard still saw a 73% snap share last week, and I expect the Titans to lean on him here against a weak defense, overall.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
You'd expect the worst pass defense in the league to be a pass funnel. But the Jaguars really aren't... bc they're also bad against the run.
With Spears back, Tony Pollard still saw a 73% snap share last week, and I expect the Titans to lean on him here against a weak defense, overall.
With Spears back, Tony Pollard still saw a 73% snap share last week, and I expect the Titans to lean on him here against a weak defense, overall.
The Vikings truly embraced the pass last week, with a 15% PROE.
One issue with leaning on Darnold is that he takes forever to throw, with a 3.09s time to throw. But Falcons pass rush is terrible. He'll have time.
Despite quiet stretch, Justin Jefferson's profile remains elite. Lots of upside here.
One issue with leaning on Darnold is that he takes forever to throw, with a 3.09s time to throw. But Falcons pass rush is terrible. He'll have time.
Despite quiet stretch, Justin Jefferson's profile remains elite. Lots of upside here.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
The Vikings truly embraced the pass last week, with a 15% PROE.
One issue with leaning on Darnold is that he takes forever to throw, with a 3.09s time to throw. But Falcons pass rush is terrible. He'll have time.
Despite quiet stretch, Justin Jefferson's profile remains elite. Lots of upside here.
One issue with leaning on Darnold is that he takes forever to throw, with a 3.09s time to throw. But Falcons pass rush is terrible. He'll have time.
Despite quiet stretch, Justin Jefferson's profile remains elite. Lots of upside here.
Aaron Rodgers' play since Week 10 is *rough*.
He's playing like a QB who doesn't want to get hit, leaning on quick throws.
But Rodgers quick passing efficiency has cratered. He had 99.1 EPA on quick throws in 2021; he has -6.6 EPA this year.
He now gets a Dolphins defense that pressure quickly.
He's playing like a QB who doesn't want to get hit, leaning on quick throws.
But Rodgers quick passing efficiency has cratered. He had 99.1 EPA on quick throws in 2021; he has -6.6 EPA this year.
He now gets a Dolphins defense that pressure quickly.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Aaron Rodgers' play since Week 10 is *rough*.
He's playing like a QB who doesn't want to get hit, leaning on quick throws.
But Rodgers quick passing efficiency has cratered. He had 99.1 EPA on quick throws in 2021; he has -6.6 EPA this year.
He now gets a Dolphins defense that pressure quickly.
He's playing like a QB who doesn't want to get hit, leaning on quick throws.
But Rodgers quick passing efficiency has cratered. He had 99.1 EPA on quick throws in 2021; he has -6.6 EPA this year.
He now gets a Dolphins defense that pressure quickly.
Saquon Barkley is up to 452 RYOE, the highest total on record. He has five games left...
This week he gets a horrendous Panthers run defense.
Since their bye, the Eagles aren't messing around, even going run heavy vs. pass-funnel Ravens.
This is every bit the smash spot is looks like for Barkley.
This week he gets a horrendous Panthers run defense.
Since their bye, the Eagles aren't messing around, even going run heavy vs. pass-funnel Ravens.
This is every bit the smash spot is looks like for Barkley.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Saquon Barkley is up to 452 RYOE, the highest total on record. He has five games left...
This week he gets a horrendous Panthers run defense.
Since their bye, the Eagles aren't messing around, even going run heavy vs. pass-funnel Ravens.
This is every bit the smash spot is looks like for Barkley.
This week he gets a horrendous Panthers run defense.
Since their bye, the Eagles aren't messing around, even going run heavy vs. pass-funnel Ravens.
This is every bit the smash spot is looks like for Barkley.
Bucs have shifted to the run, taking advantage of Irving's efficiency and recent matchups. But we've also seen they're willing to pass when needed.
Mayfield gets a LV defense that pressures quickly. But he gets the ball out even faster.
If Mike Evans (calf) is good to go, he's in an awesome spot.
Mayfield gets a LV defense that pressures quickly. But he gets the ball out even faster.
If Mike Evans (calf) is good to go, he's in an awesome spot.
December 6, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Bucs have shifted to the run, taking advantage of Irving's efficiency and recent matchups. But we've also seen they're willing to pass when needed.
Mayfield gets a LV defense that pressures quickly. But he gets the ball out even faster.
If Mike Evans (calf) is good to go, he's in an awesome spot.
Mayfield gets a LV defense that pressures quickly. But he gets the ball out even faster.
If Mike Evans (calf) is good to go, he's in an awesome spot.
Tagovailoa was great throwing downfield last week, but offensive foundation was the same—quick throws to keep Tua clean. Tua's 2.41s time to throw is easily the fastest in the NFL.
Packers defend downfield much better than Patriots.
All great for Achane, who has feasted on screens and first reads.
Packers defend downfield much better than Patriots.
All great for Achane, who has feasted on screens and first reads.
November 27, 2024 at 5:17 PM
Tagovailoa was great throwing downfield last week, but offensive foundation was the same—quick throws to keep Tua clean. Tua's 2.41s time to throw is easily the fastest in the NFL.
Packers defend downfield much better than Patriots.
All great for Achane, who has feasted on screens and first reads.
Packers defend downfield much better than Patriots.
All great for Achane, who has feasted on screens and first reads.
Cowboys keep talking about wanting to run more but just posted pass heavy PROE numbers against Commanders.
What they really want is to not get blown out, which they got last week w/ 52% expected pass rate.
This should be another low-ish expected PR game and one of Dowdle's last chances for value.
What they really want is to not get blown out, which they got last week w/ 52% expected pass rate.
This should be another low-ish expected PR game and one of Dowdle's last chances for value.
November 27, 2024 at 5:17 PM
Cowboys keep talking about wanting to run more but just posted pass heavy PROE numbers against Commanders.
What they really want is to not get blown out, which they got last week w/ 52% expected pass rate.
This should be another low-ish expected PR game and one of Dowdle's last chances for value.
What they really want is to not get blown out, which they got last week w/ 52% expected pass rate.
This should be another low-ish expected PR game and one of Dowdle's last chances for value.
Montgomery looks set to play but keep an eye for reports of a limited workload.
Monty leads Lions with 27% TPRR on play action. As the more traditional RB, he gets work on run fakes. If near 100%, this is a nice spot for him.
But any role reduction would help Gibbs' rushing *and* receiving value.
Monty leads Lions with 27% TPRR on play action. As the more traditional RB, he gets work on run fakes. If near 100%, this is a nice spot for him.
But any role reduction would help Gibbs' rushing *and* receiving value.
November 27, 2024 at 5:17 PM
Montgomery looks set to play but keep an eye for reports of a limited workload.
Monty leads Lions with 27% TPRR on play action. As the more traditional RB, he gets work on run fakes. If near 100%, this is a nice spot for him.
But any role reduction would help Gibbs' rushing *and* receiving value.
Monty leads Lions with 27% TPRR on play action. As the more traditional RB, he gets work on run fakes. If near 100%, this is a nice spot for him.
But any role reduction would help Gibbs' rushing *and* receiving value.
Goff leads NFL w/ a 38% play action rate and 4.2 EPA per game on play action dropbacks.
Bears defense allowed 6.2 EPA to Jordan Love on play action (Wk 11), 9.6 to Darnold last week.
Bears also allowing explosives downfield.
Offense should keep rolling. Jameson Williams a fun way to play that.
Bears defense allowed 6.2 EPA to Jordan Love on play action (Wk 11), 9.6 to Darnold last week.
Bears also allowing explosives downfield.
Offense should keep rolling. Jameson Williams a fun way to play that.
November 27, 2024 at 5:17 PM
Goff leads NFL w/ a 38% play action rate and 4.2 EPA per game on play action dropbacks.
Bears defense allowed 6.2 EPA to Jordan Love on play action (Wk 11), 9.6 to Darnold last week.
Bears also allowing explosives downfield.
Offense should keep rolling. Jameson Williams a fun way to play that.
Bears defense allowed 6.2 EPA to Jordan Love on play action (Wk 11), 9.6 to Darnold last week.
Bears also allowing explosives downfield.
Offense should keep rolling. Jameson Williams a fun way to play that.
Jordan Love just posted elite efficiency... but on only 20 dropbacks.
The Packers are a conservative offense.
They now get a 49ers team w/ a weak run defense that will be trying to get CMC going.
Josh Jacobs is set up for a nice workload, attached to an efficient but low-volume passing game.
The Packers are a conservative offense.
They now get a 49ers team w/ a weak run defense that will be trying to get CMC going.
Josh Jacobs is set up for a nice workload, attached to an efficient but low-volume passing game.
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Jordan Love just posted elite efficiency... but on only 20 dropbacks.
The Packers are a conservative offense.
They now get a 49ers team w/ a weak run defense that will be trying to get CMC going.
Josh Jacobs is set up for a nice workload, attached to an efficient but low-volume passing game.
The Packers are a conservative offense.
They now get a 49ers team w/ a weak run defense that will be trying to get CMC going.
Josh Jacobs is set up for a nice workload, attached to an efficient but low-volume passing game.
Bo Nix w/ the opposite dynamic of Will Levis. He's protected very well and great at avoiding sacks. His time to throw is also speeding up.
He gets a Raiders defense that is vulnerable if they don't get home.
The rookie looks ready for this matchup, making Sutton a strong play once again.
He gets a Raiders defense that is vulnerable if they don't get home.
The rookie looks ready for this matchup, making Sutton a strong play once again.
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Bo Nix w/ the opposite dynamic of Will Levis. He's protected very well and great at avoiding sacks. His time to throw is also speeding up.
He gets a Raiders defense that is vulnerable if they don't get home.
The rookie looks ready for this matchup, making Sutton a strong play once again.
He gets a Raiders defense that is vulnerable if they don't get home.
The rookie looks ready for this matchup, making Sutton a strong play once again.
Will Levis has an awful 31% pressure to sack rate. And the Titans aren't protecting him, with a 44% pressure rate.
Gets a Texans defense with an elite pass rush and Will Anderson likely returning.
Texans also good against the run, so hard to hide QB.
A potentially disastrous matchup for Levis.
Gets a Texans defense with an elite pass rush and Will Anderson likely returning.
Texans also good against the run, so hard to hide QB.
A potentially disastrous matchup for Levis.
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Will Levis has an awful 31% pressure to sack rate. And the Titans aren't protecting him, with a 44% pressure rate.
Gets a Texans defense with an elite pass rush and Will Anderson likely returning.
Texans also good against the run, so hard to hide QB.
A potentially disastrous matchup for Levis.
Gets a Texans defense with an elite pass rush and Will Anderson likely returning.
Texans also good against the run, so hard to hide QB.
A potentially disastrous matchup for Levis.
Andy Reid has been calling plays like Andy Reid the last two weeks with a 9% and 11% PROE. Panthers are terrible against the run but are also very poor against the pass.
Chiefs passing game is a leap of faith here, but if they want to put up points through the air, they easily can.
Mahomes week?🙏
Chiefs passing game is a leap of faith here, but if they want to put up points through the air, they easily can.
Mahomes week?🙏
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Andy Reid has been calling plays like Andy Reid the last two weeks with a 9% and 11% PROE. Panthers are terrible against the run but are also very poor against the pass.
Chiefs passing game is a leap of faith here, but if they want to put up points through the air, they easily can.
Mahomes week?🙏
Chiefs passing game is a leap of faith here, but if they want to put up points through the air, they easily can.
Mahomes week?🙏
Cowboys are atrocious against the run, but aren't as big a run funnel as you might expect... because they're also really bad in coverage.
Should be a good day for the Commanders' offense and a potential get-right spot for Jayden Daniels' efficiency.
Terry McLaurin is an intriguing big play bet.
Should be a good day for the Commanders' offense and a potential get-right spot for Jayden Daniels' efficiency.
Terry McLaurin is an intriguing big play bet.
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Cowboys are atrocious against the run, but aren't as big a run funnel as you might expect... because they're also really bad in coverage.
Should be a good day for the Commanders' offense and a potential get-right spot for Jayden Daniels' efficiency.
Terry McLaurin is an intriguing big play bet.
Should be a good day for the Commanders' offense and a potential get-right spot for Jayden Daniels' efficiency.
Terry McLaurin is an intriguing big play bet.
Daniel Jones wasn't good this year.
But Tommy DeVito was still *much* worse last year (as was Jones.
To survive, Nabers needs to have entire offense designed around him and insane route-running skill.
He does.
Nabers remains a WR1 against a very beatable Bucs defense.
But Tommy DeVito was still *much* worse last year (as was Jones.
To survive, Nabers needs to have entire offense designed around him and insane route-running skill.
He does.
Nabers remains a WR1 against a very beatable Bucs defense.
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Daniel Jones wasn't good this year.
But Tommy DeVito was still *much* worse last year (as was Jones.
To survive, Nabers needs to have entire offense designed around him and insane route-running skill.
He does.
Nabers remains a WR1 against a very beatable Bucs defense.
But Tommy DeVito was still *much* worse last year (as was Jones.
To survive, Nabers needs to have entire offense designed around him and insane route-running skill.
He does.
Nabers remains a WR1 against a very beatable Bucs defense.
Lions had just a 49% pass rate last week and ran for three TDs... but Jared Goff still went nuts. Since 2021, only Jordan Love (Wild Card Round) has a better EPA per play.
The Colts provide a similar setup to last week. Lions should run from ahead, but potential for another efficient passing day.
The Colts provide a similar setup to last week. Lions should run from ahead, but potential for another efficient passing day.
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Lions had just a 49% pass rate last week and ran for three TDs... but Jared Goff still went nuts. Since 2021, only Jordan Love (Wild Card Round) has a better EPA per play.
The Colts provide a similar setup to last week. Lions should run from ahead, but potential for another efficient passing day.
The Colts provide a similar setup to last week. Lions should run from ahead, but potential for another efficient passing day.
39% of Sam Darnold's scrimmage yards are on throws of 3+ seconds where he didn't leave the pocket... the highest mark since at least 2017.
Darnold is a product of coaching, weapons, and protection.
But Bears' pass rush isn't elite, and they let up big plays.
Stay the course w/ Vikings this week.
Darnold is a product of coaching, weapons, and protection.
But Bears' pass rush isn't elite, and they let up big plays.
Stay the course w/ Vikings this week.
November 22, 2024 at 6:41 PM
39% of Sam Darnold's scrimmage yards are on throws of 3+ seconds where he didn't leave the pocket... the highest mark since at least 2017.
Darnold is a product of coaching, weapons, and protection.
But Bears' pass rush isn't elite, and they let up big plays.
Stay the course w/ Vikings this week.
Darnold is a product of coaching, weapons, and protection.
But Bears' pass rush isn't elite, and they let up big plays.
Stay the course w/ Vikings this week.