Sheepdog John
@panoptes000.bsky.social
Bane of Coyotes | Keeper of the Flock | Tinkerdog-in-training
"The three qualities most sought after in [sheepdogs] are trustworthiness, attentiveness, and protectiveness; [...] protective in that they attempt to drive off predators."
"The three qualities most sought after in [sheepdogs] are trustworthiness, attentiveness, and protectiveness; [...] protective in that they attempt to drive off predators."
I have high hopes for Carney and the DIA.
November 20, 2025 at 10:44 PM
I have high hopes for Carney and the DIA.
Again, I am not opposed to diversifying our hardware and making more friends.
But South Korea also uses American engines. Their next-gen KF-21 uses the F414 engine, also licensed from GE.
But South Korea also uses American engines. Their next-gen KF-21 uses the F414 engine, also licensed from GE.
November 20, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Again, I am not opposed to diversifying our hardware and making more friends.
But South Korea also uses American engines. Their next-gen KF-21 uses the F414 engine, also licensed from GE.
But South Korea also uses American engines. Their next-gen KF-21 uses the F414 engine, also licensed from GE.
I am not personally opposed to Gripen.
November 20, 2025 at 10:37 PM
I am not personally opposed to Gripen.
Sweden does not run an engine and materials science research division.
They license a last generation American engine from GE and took twice the time to develop an objectively inferior jet. This is not to detract from the fact we should buy Gripen.
They license a last generation American engine from GE and took twice the time to develop an objectively inferior jet. This is not to detract from the fact we should buy Gripen.
November 20, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Sweden does not run an engine and materials science research division.
They license a last generation American engine from GE and took twice the time to develop an objectively inferior jet. This is not to detract from the fact we should buy Gripen.
They license a last generation American engine from GE and took twice the time to develop an objectively inferior jet. This is not to detract from the fact we should buy Gripen.
Let me be clear. Defense is very capital and technically intensive. I do not expect another GE, PW, Rolls-Royce, another high-end engine prime to pop up in my lifetime.
You will only see more options if a large, rich nation pours billions of dollars into standing up an (inferior) competitor.
You will only see more options if a large, rich nation pours billions of dollars into standing up an (inferior) competitor.
November 20, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Let me be clear. Defense is very capital and technically intensive. I do not expect another GE, PW, Rolls-Royce, another high-end engine prime to pop up in my lifetime.
You will only see more options if a large, rich nation pours billions of dollars into standing up an (inferior) competitor.
You will only see more options if a large, rich nation pours billions of dollars into standing up an (inferior) competitor.
I'd like to point out that I'm not talking about F-35 at this time. I'm talking about all the other projects that were procured through UOR.
November 20, 2025 at 10:28 PM
I'd like to point out that I'm not talking about F-35 at this time. I'm talking about all the other projects that were procured through UOR.
In our case with the F-35, we kinda have to go with the technically worse option just because we're not sure we can rely on the supply chain for our preferred option.
November 20, 2025 at 10:26 PM
In our case with the F-35, we kinda have to go with the technically worse option just because we're not sure we can rely on the supply chain for our preferred option.
The point is that sometimes (a lot of times), there is no competition and your options are to sole source the one product that fits your requirements or run a competition with options that objectively don't fit your requirements.
November 20, 2025 at 10:25 PM
The point is that sometimes (a lot of times), there is no competition and your options are to sole source the one product that fits your requirements or run a competition with options that objectively don't fit your requirements.
It's always been the case. Defense technology is by definition cutting edge and has a limited market.
It's expensive to run a jet engine and materials science R&D program and even more so when you can only sell to maybe ten clients.
It's expensive to run a jet engine and materials science R&D program and even more so when you can only sell to maybe ten clients.
November 20, 2025 at 10:22 PM
It's always been the case. Defense technology is by definition cutting edge and has a limited market.
It's expensive to run a jet engine and materials science R&D program and even more so when you can only sell to maybe ten clients.
It's expensive to run a jet engine and materials science R&D program and even more so when you can only sell to maybe ten clients.
The F-35 program is a more than decade long project. It is not an UOR.
November 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
The F-35 program is a more than decade long project. It is not an UOR.
Another example: GD is the only company that manufactures APCs in Canada. The Canadian government had a fleet of 650 LAV3s that they upgraded to LAV6.
Do you honestly believe that any foreign competitor would submit a bid with the actual expectation of winning? Would the government ever pick them?
Do you honestly believe that any foreign competitor would submit a bid with the actual expectation of winning? Would the government ever pick them?
November 20, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Another example: GD is the only company that manufactures APCs in Canada. The Canadian government had a fleet of 650 LAV3s that they upgraded to LAV6.
Do you honestly believe that any foreign competitor would submit a bid with the actual expectation of winning? Would the government ever pick them?
Do you honestly believe that any foreign competitor would submit a bid with the actual expectation of winning? Would the government ever pick them?
If you want jet engines, your options are basically GE, Rolls-Royce, or Pratt and Whitney. Don't like the Americans? Great. That means your only option is Rolls-Royce which means there's no point of holding a competition.
November 20, 2025 at 10:05 PM
If you want jet engines, your options are basically GE, Rolls-Royce, or Pratt and Whitney. Don't like the Americans? Great. That means your only option is Rolls-Royce which means there's no point of holding a competition.
The other thing about defense is that there is inherently less competition in the defense industry. It's not like you can just go into Walmart and buy a dozen APCs.
November 20, 2025 at 10:03 PM
The other thing about defense is that there is inherently less competition in the defense industry. It's not like you can just go into Walmart and buy a dozen APCs.
And that's if no future cabinet comes in and cancels it.
We definitely need UORs.
We definitely need UORs.
November 20, 2025 at 9:59 PM
And that's if no future cabinet comes in and cancels it.
We definitely need UORs.
We definitely need UORs.
You're right. It should not take years to do a major purchase.
However, practically, if you are spending >$10 million on a procurement (basically every project), it's classified as a major capital project (it'll take at least 10 years to complete).
However, practically, if you are spending >$10 million on a procurement (basically every project), it's classified as a major capital project (it'll take at least 10 years to complete).
November 20, 2025 at 9:51 PM
You're right. It should not take years to do a major purchase.
However, practically, if you are spending >$10 million on a procurement (basically every project), it's classified as a major capital project (it'll take at least 10 years to complete).
However, practically, if you are spending >$10 million on a procurement (basically every project), it's classified as a major capital project (it'll take at least 10 years to complete).
A lot more than 159 Canadian soldiers would be casualties in Afghanistan if UORs for Leopard 2, RG-31 MRAPs, C-IED equipment, and LAV III were not executed. UORs are your only option when you're out of time.
November 20, 2025 at 9:41 PM
A lot more than 159 Canadian soldiers would be casualties in Afghanistan if UORs for Leopard 2, RG-31 MRAPs, C-IED equipment, and LAV III were not executed. UORs are your only option when you're out of time.
I don't have internal insight into the program. But Lockheed will have to have an upgrade package for pre Block 4 jets unless they want to lose customers. No one is going to buy new jets with every upgrade package.
November 19, 2025 at 7:00 PM
I don't have internal insight into the program. But Lockheed will have to have an upgrade package for pre Block 4 jets unless they want to lose customers. No one is going to buy new jets with every upgrade package.
The Australians have their own metrics on how to fight China. Thankfully, we're much farther away so we have less stringent requirements.
A Block 3 F-35 has less processing power, munition flexibility, and kinematic performance than a Block 4. It will still kill everything that isn't an F-35.
A Block 3 F-35 has less processing power, munition flexibility, and kinematic performance than a Block 4. It will still kill everything that isn't an F-35.
November 19, 2025 at 6:57 PM
The Australians have their own metrics on how to fight China. Thankfully, we're much farther away so we have less stringent requirements.
A Block 3 F-35 has less processing power, munition flexibility, and kinematic performance than a Block 4. It will still kill everything that isn't an F-35.
A Block 3 F-35 has less processing power, munition flexibility, and kinematic performance than a Block 4. It will still kill everything that isn't an F-35.
I remind you that Israel tore apart the Iranian A2AD network, purposely designed against F-35, and suppressed ballistic missile launches across the country with just 45 planes. By comparison, the US required an order of magnitude more planes to do the same in Iraq.
November 19, 2025 at 6:37 PM
I remind you that Israel tore apart the Iranian A2AD network, purposely designed against F-35, and suppressed ballistic missile launches across the country with just 45 planes. By comparison, the US required an order of magnitude more planes to do the same in Iraq.
Let me put it this way. If you have 4th gen fighters and want to strike a peer opponent or fend off a 5th gen fighter, you'll need around 4 fighters. With F-35, you only need the one.
November 19, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Let me put it this way. If you have 4th gen fighters and want to strike a peer opponent or fend off a 5th gen fighter, you'll need around 4 fighters. With F-35, you only need the one.
I've written to you saying that I believe in a mixed fleet solution. However, the F-35 has no real Western competitor. Even if it's expensive (not that much more by fighter jet standards), nothing else can do the job as well.
November 19, 2025 at 6:19 PM
I've written to you saying that I believe in a mixed fleet solution. However, the F-35 has no real Western competitor. Even if it's expensive (not that much more by fighter jet standards), nothing else can do the job as well.
Russia/China in the Arctic and Russia in Europe.
November 19, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Russia/China in the Arctic and Russia in Europe.
Take some advice from a defense observer. FPVs and small drones cannot replace stealthy airpower. Just because it may be a bad idea to go all in on F-35 doesn't mean they don't do their jobs very well.
November 19, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Take some advice from a defense observer. FPVs and small drones cannot replace stealthy airpower. Just because it may be a bad idea to go all in on F-35 doesn't mean they don't do their jobs very well.
I don't think we disagree about diversification. It's just nuance over how many more we should buy. It would be wasteful to buy and support a jet that only comprises 20% of your fleet. Maybe 32-44 F-35s would be a good compromise?
November 17, 2025 at 1:42 AM
I don't think we disagree about diversification. It's just nuance over how many more we should buy. It would be wasteful to buy and support a jet that only comprises 20% of your fleet. Maybe 32-44 F-35s would be a good compromise?
4. We are not going to buy hundreds of fighters.
November 17, 2025 at 1:21 AM
4. We are not going to buy hundreds of fighters.