3. The final fireworks - the fact that Sauron & his lackey Gerasimov are acting absolutely irrationally on strategic level has been clear since “Kyiv in 3 days” & all the “encirclement of the Donbass” plans. We'll know in a few weeks whether this is the case again. #UkraineVictory2025 #MUGA

2. GSUA counts mortar systems with caliber < 100mm. Possible, but would be misleading and inaccurate. The loss of mortars would be just as difficult and nonsensical to count as broken rifles or grenade launchers. Also inconclusive that only 5000 such systems were lost by mid-2023 ...

1. GSUA counts incorrectly/redundantly - GSUA always conveys that they only count what can irrevocably no longer be used. But then it must stop at 26000-26500 lost systems. The combination of Soviet stocks + North Korea + some new production does not allow for more than that ...

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 24561
Average daily artillery loss since 16.02.25 (last 30 days): 46.52
Days remaining: (26100-24561)/46.52=33.08

rounded up: 34 days from today
-> We land on April 19, 2025

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 24206
Average daily artillery loss since 09.02.25 (last 30 days): 47.29
Days remaining: (26100-24206)/47.29=40.05

rounded up: 41 days from today
-> We land on April 19, 2025

...a too strong Europe with a victorious Ukraine and a defeated russia, he is now trying to ruin this calculation shortly before this point in time. I at least hope that he is too late with this attempt. #MUGA #MEGA #UkraineVictory2025 #Ukraine

... away from the time when at least the stalemate will be broken and the Orks will only have the strategic defense as an option, which will lead to months of humiliating retreat battles. Since Trump/MAGA fears ... <3/4> #UkraineWillWin #Ukraine

Nevertheless I'm still of the opinion that russian warfare will simply not work without artillery. And I think that the mass deployment of combat drones will only change this to a limited extent. So I'm convinced that we are only a few weeks... <2/4> #Ukraine #UkraineWillWin

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 23959
Average daily artillery loss since 02.02.25 (last 30 days): 49.24
Days remaining: (26100-23959)/49.24=43.48

rounded up: 44 days from today
-> We land on April 15, 2025

Prediction of last Sunday:
bsky.app/profile/p-ol...

#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #MUGA

Details of that forecast:

Total number pre-war systems: 25600
DPRK systems: 500
Systems lost so far: 23582
Average daily artillery loss since 23.01.25 (last 30 days): 42.77
Days remaining: (26100-23582)/42.77=58.87

rounded up: 59 days from today
-> We land on April 23, 2025