Oyster Analytics
@oysteranalytics.bsky.social
Two former college ballplayers modeling the next generation of MLB Talent. Made it to Bluesky!
Check out our shiny app: https://oysteranalytics.shinyapps.io/HitterProjections/
Check out our shiny app: https://oysteranalytics.shinyapps.io/HitterProjections/
The DUNOSAUR roars again! 4 dingers in 2 playoff games have turned around Duno's previously lukewarm fall, showcasing his top-end raw pop. An elite walker with great power and decent contact skills, Duno is a strong C and bilingual pitcher's pal behind the dish. One of our faves!
November 14, 2025 at 9:30 PM
The DUNOSAUR roars again! 4 dingers in 2 playoff games have turned around Duno's previously lukewarm fall, showcasing his top-end raw pop. An elite walker with great power and decent contact skills, Duno is a strong C and bilingual pitcher's pal behind the dish. One of our faves!
Check out yesterday's Arizona Fall League Analysis piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social! We look at the breakout performances and cold streaks to see how much the fall season affects a prospect’s future outcomes. Check it out below:
Arizona Fall League Heaters (and Droughts): Signal or Noise?
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Check out yesterday's Arizona Fall League Analysis piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social! We look at the breakout performances and cold streaks to see how much the fall season affects a prospect’s future outcomes. Check it out below:
Our improved Oyster Model is still in production, but these two players are shining through! Tony Blanco Jr. has some of the best power/age/level of any prospect we've tracked, and William Bergolla has the best contact skills. Flawed? Sure. But the model believes!
November 11, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Our improved Oyster Model is still in production, but these two players are shining through! Tony Blanco Jr. has some of the best power/age/level of any prospect we've tracked, and William Bergolla has the best contact skills. Flawed? Sure. But the model believes!
Like most outlets, Florentino rocketed up our boards in '25. Our model loves his 50%+ FB rate but below 15% infield FB rate, and his plus power and discipline. Fears about K are diminished for us with his great contact rates for his power. If it travels to A+, he's T10 for sure!
November 7, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Like most outlets, Florentino rocketed up our boards in '25. Our model loves his 50%+ FB rate but below 15% infield FB rate, and his plus power and discipline. Fears about K are diminished for us with his great contact rates for his power. If it travels to A+, he's T10 for sure!
Nate George nearly cracks our T100 with his great contact skills and respectable power. Still extremely raw, George plays a good OF due to elite speed, but went an inefficient 50 for 75 in SB. He hits a ton of GB (47%), but flashed a line drive, 5 tool profile. Polarizing for sure!
November 5, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Nate George nearly cracks our T100 with his great contact skills and respectable power. Still extremely raw, George plays a good OF due to elite speed, but went an inefficient 50 for 75 in SB. He hits a ton of GB (47%), but flashed a line drive, 5 tool profile. Polarizing for sure!
The @marlins.com Starlyn Caba has lit up the AFL, hitting .327 in 67 PA, but our model is concerned with his contact. While BB are nice, they're devalued in R and A, and he's struggled to impact the game with the bat.
November 3, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The @marlins.com Starlyn Caba has lit up the AFL, hitting .327 in 67 PA, but our model is concerned with his contact. While BB are nice, they're devalued in R and A, and he's struggled to impact the game with the bat.
Anderson has been another AFL superstar in 2025, but our model holds his age against him. Despite a high power ceiling and good bat-to-ball, he put up his best work in AA as a 23YO, less than a year younger than league average. His '26 in AAA will see if the B2B can translate!
October 30, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Anderson has been another AFL superstar in 2025, but our model holds his age against him. Despite a high power ceiling and good bat-to-ball, he put up his best work in AA as a 23YO, less than a year younger than league average. His '26 in AAA will see if the B2B can translate!
Get ready for Game 3 with last week's World Series Preview! We yet again use the Oyster Sim to project the productivity of these two big-swinging lineups and highlight the difficulties of constructing the ideal postseason lineup.
World Series Preview: What Our Simulations Say About the Blue Jay and Dodger Offenses
Spoiler: we're believers in the Dodger juggernaut
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Get ready for Game 3 with last week's World Series Preview! We yet again use the Oyster Sim to project the productivity of these two big-swinging lineups and highlight the difficulties of constructing the ideal postseason lineup.
It's not hot take Tuesday, but... Valdez has been the star of the AFL, clubbing 8 dingers with flattering metrics, but the Oyster model isn't entralled by his regular season work. The power is there for sure, but most of his power was at age 21 in a hitter's park in A+.
October 23, 2025 at 10:07 PM
It's not hot take Tuesday, but... Valdez has been the star of the AFL, clubbing 8 dingers with flattering metrics, but the Oyster model isn't entralled by his regular season work. The power is there for sure, but most of his power was at age 21 in a hitter's park in A+.
For this #hottaketuesday, we have a mystery player! His closest comps are the solid company of Franklin Arias, Colt Emerson, and Miguel Vargas, and he's been a solid hitter at the R and A levels. Unheralded and unranked by most, we think he's got a great shot. Who is this player?
October 21, 2025 at 8:32 PM
For this #hottaketuesday, we have a mystery player! His closest comps are the solid company of Franklin Arias, Colt Emerson, and Miguel Vargas, and he's been a solid hitter at the R and A levels. Unheralded and unranked by most, we think he's got a great shot. Who is this player?
Game 7… who do we got? One admin is rooting for the M’s! A lifetime Julio fantasy owner, I’ll be cheering for the Mariners. How about you all?
October 21, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Game 7… who do we got? One admin is rooting for the M’s! A lifetime Julio fantasy owner, I’ll be cheering for the Mariners. How about you all?
One qualm we had with the Mariners' lineup was Arozarena in the leadoff spot; we like Rodriguez's added pop there a bit more, especially with their playoff performances thus far. They've made the change for game 5; will it pay off?
ALCS Preview: Who Has the Advantage at the Plate According to the Oyster Simulator?
We use the Oyster Simulator to assess whether the Blue Jays or the Mariners are truly the more potent offensive force
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 17, 2025 at 10:38 PM
One qualm we had with the Mariners' lineup was Arozarena in the leadoff spot; we like Rodriguez's added pop there a bit more, especially with their playoff performances thus far. They've made the change for game 5; will it pay off?
Farmelo is a rarity: an underappreciated power bat and good fielder with acceptable contact and discipline skills. Battling injuries, he had an above-average '25, but had his K-rate rise and avg fall. '26 will be key for Farmelo; can he raise his con% to a more sustainable level?
October 16, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Farmelo is a rarity: an underappreciated power bat and good fielder with acceptable contact and discipline skills. Battling injuries, he had an above-average '25, but had his K-rate rise and avg fall. '26 will be key for Farmelo; can he raise his con% to a more sustainable level?
The Jays jiggle their lineup for game 3, moving Santander to the cleanup spot, Lukes to the 2 hole, and moving Barger down. As we mentioned below, the M's likely still hold a hitting advantage, especially against the righty Bieber.
Check out our piece:
Check out our piece:
October 15, 2025 at 10:41 PM
The Jays jiggle their lineup for game 3, moving Santander to the cleanup spot, Lukes to the 2 hole, and moving Barger down. As we mentioned below, the M's likely still hold a hitting advantage, especially against the righty Bieber.
Check out our piece:
Check out our piece:
Despite favoring facing lefties this season, the Brewers were shut down by Blake Snell last night. Today, they face Yamamoto and counter with Peralta, a RHP vs RHP showdown that favors LA's bats. Read our Oyster Simulator's take on the matchup:
NLCS Breakdown: Whose Bats Reign Supreme According to the Oyster Simulator?
We use the Oyster simulator to compare the star-studded Dodger offense to the above-average-Joes Brewers lineup
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Despite favoring facing lefties this season, the Brewers were shut down by Blake Snell last night. Today, they face Yamamoto and counter with Peralta, a RHP vs RHP showdown that favors LA's bats. Read our Oyster Simulator's take on the matchup:
We've got ALCS predictions! Through our new Oyster Simulator, we compare the Mariners and the Blue Jays to see which squad has the best bats. One of these teams outperforms its wRC projections in our simulated seasons. Can you guess who?
ALCS Preview: Who Has the Advantage at the Plate According to the Oyster Simulator?
We use the Oyster Simulator to assess whether the Blue Jays or the Mariners are truly the more potent offensive force
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 12, 2025 at 10:17 PM
We've got ALCS predictions! Through our new Oyster Simulator, we compare the Mariners and the Blue Jays to see which squad has the best bats. One of these teams outperforms its wRC projections in our simulated seasons. Can you guess who?
The big swinging Mendez comps to Josh Naylor, and Mendez can learn from Naylor's success. Both guys had good contact, high EV, took BB (Mendez better), and hit too many GB (Mendez worse). Naylor has upped his game by trading GB for FB; if Mendez can do the same, bat is monstrous!
October 12, 2025 at 5:59 PM
The big swinging Mendez comps to Josh Naylor, and Mendez can learn from Naylor's success. Both guys had good contact, high EV, took BB (Mendez better), and hit too many GB (Mendez worse). Naylor has upped his game by trading GB for FB; if Mendez can do the same, bat is monstrous!
Walcott is a beast and one to watch in the AFL! He's a rare combo of well-rounded hitting and exceptional athleticism. He was an above-average hitter (111 wRC+) at AA at over 4 years younger than his competition, and had none of the flaws that plague young players (has pop+BB+low K). Future star!
October 8, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Walcott is a beast and one to watch in the AFL! He's a rare combo of well-rounded hitting and exceptional athleticism. He was an above-average hitter (111 wRC+) at AA at over 4 years younger than his competition, and had none of the flaws that plague young players (has pop+BB+low K). Future star!
This #hottaketuesday, we encourage you to remain higher than high on Franklin Arias! While his overall numbers weren't incredible, he held his own in A-AA with elite contact numbers. An 89.1% contact rate in '25 is standout, and with age comes power. Top 5 prospect potential!
October 7, 2025 at 10:31 PM
This #hottaketuesday, we encourage you to remain higher than high on Franklin Arias! While his overall numbers weren't incredible, he held his own in A-AA with elite contact numbers. An 89.1% contact rate in '25 is standout, and with age comes power. Top 5 prospect potential!
ABS Challenge Thread! First off, we're pro ABS challenges. As a frequent MiLB attendee, the system may be the best in American sports (bar tennis). It's quick, visually appealing to the fans, and adds some fun drama to the game without the tedious redundancy that plagues
October 6, 2025 at 10:59 PM
ABS Challenge Thread! First off, we're pro ABS challenges. As a frequent MiLB attendee, the system may be the best in American sports (bar tennis). It's quick, visually appealing to the fans, and adds some fun drama to the game without the tedious redundancy that plagues
This week's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social introduces the Oyster Simulator, an analytical tool we use to project how players' production changes in context with the rest of their team's lineup. Read why the sim would swap Cronenworth and Arraez here:
Introducing the Oyster Simulator, and Why the Padres Should Have Been Leading Off Jake Cronenworth
We unveil our new tool for evaluating lineup run production holistically, and in a case study of its value, show why San Diego should have dropped Luis Arraez to the eight hole
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 10:47 PM
This week's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social introduces the Oyster Simulator, an analytical tool we use to project how players' production changes in context with the rest of their team's lineup. Read why the sim would swap Cronenworth and Arraez here:
Playoff debuted DeLauter has been one of our fav prospects for a while; he was T20 for us until injuries stalled his dev in 2025. He's a rare breed of player who walks, hits HR, and has solid contact ability. With an odd but powerful swing, we're excited to see him contribute in the playoffs!
October 1, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Playoff debuted DeLauter has been one of our fav prospects for a while; he was T20 for us until injuries stalled his dev in 2025. He's a rare breed of player who walks, hits HR, and has solid contact ability. With an odd but powerful swing, we're excited to see him contribute in the playoffs!
Who are your biggest prospect prediction wins and losses of the year? We loved Jacob Wilson more than most before his great '25, and had Daylen Lile as a top 60 prospect! We missed on Drake Baldwin, who we weren't sold on due to his slightly older debut age. How about y'all?
September 29, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Who are your biggest prospect prediction wins and losses of the year? We loved Jacob Wilson more than most before his great '25, and had Daylen Lile as a top 60 prospect! We missed on Drake Baldwin, who we weren't sold on due to his slightly older debut age. How about y'all?
Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?
Over- and Under-Leveled Prospects: Who's Got the Juice?
Highlighting several of our favorite case studies, we show a path to contextualizing age in prospect prognostication
downonthefarm.substack.com
September 26, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?
The youngest of the Salases, Andrew had a tough 2025, hitting only .186 with a poor .564 OPS. Why do we still like him? He was the youngest player in Single-A, has a respectable K-Rate, and pulls the ball well. As he adds strength, we expect him to become a well-rounded player!
September 25, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The youngest of the Salases, Andrew had a tough 2025, hitting only .186 with a poor .564 OPS. Why do we still like him? He was the youngest player in Single-A, has a respectable K-Rate, and pulls the ball well. As he adds strength, we expect him to become a well-rounded player!