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overshot.bsky.social
Overshot the Carrying Capacity
@overshot.bsky.social
120 followers 95 following 680 posts
Opinionated cartoons and views on how we are doing, backed with evidence, but happy to learn more.
Unfortunately my limited talent to draw isn't matching the ideas in my head. I seem to be using this account for commentary.
Posts Replies Media Videos
overshot.bsky.social
That chart design seems perfectly clear.
I think that approach could catch on.
Spoof chart of Mauna Loa CO2 readings in ppm It messes around with the axis, to give an incorrect impression that CO2 ppm is level / downwards.
November 14, 2025 at 10:56 AM
overshot.bsky.social
The blue sky areas around the Mediterranean seem to map well with the areas at risk of desertification.
Map showing the countries around the Mediterranean, highlighting areas that are already desert, or at risk of desertification. 2013. https://www.grida.no/resources/8333 credit (in this case Emmanuelle Bournay and Matthias Beilstein, Zoï Environment Network)
October 23, 2025 at 9:21 PM
overshot.bsky.social
The next few years will be interesting, to see if the global consumption (not just electricity) actually goes down, and at what rate. Record levels in 2024.
Graph from "World in Data", showing the "Coal consumption by region" (Middle east, S&C America, Africa, CIS, Europe, N America, Asia Pacific) as a stacked plot. X axis: 1965 to 2024 Y axis: 0 TWh to 50,000 TWh Overall, globally, coal consumption has been going up and was at record levels in 2024. It has flattened considerably since 2010, with regional declines, but still up overall.
October 13, 2025 at 9:36 AM
overshot.bsky.social
"Due to the lapse in federal government funding, NASA is not updating this website. We sincerely regret this inconvenience."
Website: worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

Sad times.

What an amazing website this has been. Daily satellite views of the Arctic and Antarctic.
A screenshot of the website https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/ which has a new notification: "Due to the lapse in federal government funding, NASA is not updating this website. We sincerely regret this inconvenience."
October 1, 2025 at 3:05 PM
overshot.bsky.social
And a huge amount of very thin ice.
Source: polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-a...

And lots of high anomaly sea surface temperatures.
Source:
climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-we...
Sea ice volume for the Arctic. Lots of ice with under 1.2m thickness. Sea surface temperature anomaly for the Arctic. Large areas with over 8C above normal.
August 24, 2025 at 8:25 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Uk's "first past the post" elections have even bigger extremes, for votes per seat.
Notables:
* 33.7% gets 411 seats
* 14.3% gets 5 seats
* 6.4% gets 4 seats
* 0.7% gets 7 seats
Source: researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
Table showing UK 2024 election results. Each row is a political party, and shows national totals for: votes, vote share, seats, candidates.
August 21, 2025 at 4:29 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Premise 4, from Derrick Jensen's Endgame
Premise Four: Civilization is based on a clearly defined and widely accepted yet often unarticulated hierarchy. Violence done by those higher on the hierarchy to those lower is nearly always invisible, that is, unnoticed. When it is noticed, it is fully rationalized. Violence done by those lower on the hierarchy to those higher is unthinkable, and when it does occur is regarded with shock, horror, and the fetishization of the victims.
August 19, 2025 at 9:09 PM
overshot.bsky.social
My BlueSky timelines for "Climate Change" and "US Fascism" come together.
Cartoon from Private Eye Magazine showing a Whale joining the queue for ice cream ... and below that a post from George Tsakraklides about not stepping outside for ice cream in DC, to going to a concentration camp.
August 12, 2025 at 11:48 AM
overshot.bsky.social
Overlaying the new data onto your October 2023 graphic (climatecasino.net/2023/10/the-...), the line for "Net-Zero sometime in mid-October, 2076" is facing headwinds. That said, the article ends on a more "optimistic" note, with (your definition of) net zero happening earlier.
August 7, 2025 at 8:38 AM
overshot.bsky.social
There is plenty of sea ice with low concentrations near Alaska. Also looking at @polarportal.bsky.social website there is a lot of thin ice around.

Source: data.seaice.uni-bremen.de/amsr2/today/...
Map of the Arctic, showing the sea ice concentration on 24th July 2025. Plenty of lie concentrations of sea ice near northern Alaskan coasts. "Universität Bremen" web page
July 24, 2025 at 8:34 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Change! I did have a tasty vegan sausage roll yesterday, but generally still too many poor personal choices. Also systemically too many trends going the wrong way, within a destructive culture.
Two cartoon images. Top image: speaker at podium saying: "who wants change?", with the crowd being enthusiastic. Bottom image: same set up, but speaker asks: "who wants to change", the crowd looking down at the floor. Artist? no idea! I have seen it posted with tag: https://successpictures.io/
July 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Last Friday, England and Wales were cloudless in the NASA "World View" satellite viewer
worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov?v=1381490.50...

@metoffice.gov.uk - the browner colours match the areas that had very little rain in the Spring? (as per your round-up video: youtu.be/HTW3n8-blEw?... )
Satellite image from 11-Jul-2025 from Nasa Worldview, with England and Wales being cloud-free.
July 14, 2025 at 5:32 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Comparing 2020 IMO Sulphur regulations affected regions, with 2025 mid July Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies.
Image Title: Comparing 2020 IMO Sulphur regulations affected regions, with 2025 mid July Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Upper Image: Shows map of Northern Hemisphere, showing where Sulphur emissions happen. Lower Image: Shows map of Northern Hemisphere, showing Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on 12th July 2025 Red boxes are added to both images, to cover Northern Atlantic/Pacific regions. Note: the area in the red box on the lower image was manually added by me. Not quite the same as the red box in the top image, but close enough for this comparison.
July 14, 2025 at 1:44 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Tour De France Stage 8, cycling 171km, from St. Meen to Laval will be brutal then!
Taking the image from wxcharts.com posted by @firehorse249791.bsky.social‬ ... and overlaying the Tour De France Stage 8 route. Both are for Saturday 12th July Looks like the tour will be cycling through temperatures +12C over the normal climate temperature.
July 11, 2025 at 9:23 AM
overshot.bsky.social
The NSIDC graph for Greenland melting has moved into some kind of abstract art mode.

Source: nsidc.org/ice-sheets-t...
A graph of Greenland Ice Sheet Melting, from NSIDC Title: Greenland Surface Melt Extent Interactive Chart X-Axis: 1st April to 31st October Y Axis: Melt Area in square kilometres Each line on the graph represents a year of melting The line for 2025 is broken up (not continuous) and has multiple values for some dates.
July 8, 2025 at 9:32 AM
overshot.bsky.social
@tomgauld.bsky.social
Two image cartoon by Tom Gauld First image: person giving a tour of office, saying: "This is the room where you can discuss our climate study with the politicians" Second image: "and this is the supplies closet, you can shut yourself away in and scream afterwards"
June 28, 2025 at 10:46 AM
overshot.bsky.social
The Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly of the Western Mediterranean Sea is hella hot compared to 1971-2000 baseline.
Map of the Mediterranean Sea, showing the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on 17th June 2025 . The western half is particularly hot with much of it being 3C above 1971-2000 baseline.
June 17, 2025 at 3:39 PM
overshot.bsky.social
That thin sea ice has converted into record low sea ice extent for this day (only just). How low will we go.
Graph from @kevpluck.bsky.social at seaice.visuals.earth
Arctic sea ice extent on 14th Jun 2025. Graph is highly zoomed in because we are only just lower than previous record for this day.
June 15, 2025 at 11:40 AM
overshot.bsky.social
That looks very similar to graph from @drjamesehansen.bsky.social "Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?"
doi.org/10.1080/0013...
E.g. the Berkeley loess 30 smoothing, is similar to the GISS 2010-present linear best fit.
Graph from Dr James Hansen "Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?" Shows 1880-2025 global warming with GISS data. The smoothing lines include "best linear fit 1970-2010, extended into the future" and "best linear fit 2010-present". Graph suggests acceleration is under way.
June 12, 2025 at 10:24 PM
overshot.bsky.social
NSIDC site "can't be reached" again. Maintenance or TACO'd?
nsidc.org/sea-ice-toda...
I guess it's time to switch to jaxa data.
Web browser error message saying NSIDC website can't be reached.
June 12, 2025 at 11:32 AM
overshot.bsky.social
Just seen the same reported in science.org
Screenshot of text from science.org: For nearly 4 decades, researchers have tracked one of the most prominent harbingers of global warming—dwindling Arctic sea ice—with data from aging weather satellites run by the U.S. military. But this continuous record is now at risk, after the Department of Defense (DOD) quietly told climate scientists it would be “deprioritizing” access to the data. The move comes as Arctic sea ice approaches a possible new record low. “The [satellites] are up there and functioning,” says Walt Meier, a remote-sensing scientist at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). “But we’re not getting all the data anymore, at least regularly.” NSIDC and Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service compile the two most prominent global records of sea ice, and both groups rely on these data. The only options for similar observations come from either an aging Japanese satellite, launched in 2012, or a series of Chinese weather satellites, which the country is already using to produce its own record of sea ice.
June 7, 2025 at 7:47 AM
overshot.bsky.social
NYT: Stephen K. Bannon on Musk:

“They should initiate a formal investigation of his immigration status because I am of the strong belief that he is an illegal alien, and he should be deported from the country immediately,” he said in a phone interview with me.
Screenshot from New York Times. Text is as per main tweet.
June 5, 2025 at 8:36 PM
overshot.bsky.social
SST Anomaly for UK does look particularly impressive to the West of Ireland and North of Iceland.

Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org (Alt Text for details)
Map adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, showing the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly for Western Europe. Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=sstanom&ortho=3&wt=1 (22-May-2025) The region around Ireland is particularly hot. 4C+ anomaly vs 1971-2000 baseline. The SST Anomaly on the Northern coast of Iceland is also high, at 5C+
May 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Comforting "progress" can be the enemy of wide scale systemic reform. I doubt that Nirvana is a high odds option at this point.
Still image from "Apollo 13" film, where a proposed "solution" gets the astronauts closer to safe return to home. Unfortunately they would still die.
May 15, 2025 at 5:10 PM
overshot.bsky.social
Derrick Jensen covered this in his book "Endgame"
derrickjensen.org/endgame/prem...
Image of text from the Premises in the book Endgame from Derrick Jensen. Premise Four: Civilization is based on a clearly defined and widely accepted yet often unarticulated hierarchy. Violence done by those higher on the hierarchy to those lower is nearly always invisible, that is, unnoticed. When it is noticed, it is fully rationalized. Violence done by those lower on the hierarchy to those higher is unthinkable, and when it does occur is regarded with shock, horror, and the fetishization of the victims. Premise Five: The property of those higher on the hierarchy is more valuable than the lives of those below. It is acceptable for those above to increase the amount of property they control—in everyday language, to make money—by destroying or taking the lives of those below. This is called production. If those below damage the property of those above, those above may kill or otherwise destroy the lives of those below. This is called justice.
May 14, 2025 at 1:31 PM