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orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Orla Hegarty
@orla-hegarty.bsky.social
4.9K followers 3K following 1.2K posts
Architect Asst Professor @UCDDublin @UCDArch FRIAI RIBA ARB opinions my own #Housing #Architecture #Construction #CovidIsAirborne #ClimateAction
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orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Housing crisis in a nutshell

“Our adult children would love to move out

There’s a beautiful new apartment block 5 minutes away. Sadly they are all for rent at extortionate prices

What’s more infuriating is many of these apartments are still vacant” (text in alt) www.irishtimes.com/opinion/lett...
Housing and young people Sir, – Shame on our Government is all that I can say, given the state of housing availability in our country. When I look at the properties in my own community, I just get so mad. Our adult children would love to move out. No hope of that in the current climate. There’s a beautiful new apartment block only five minutes up the road. Sadly, they are all for rent at extortionate prices which any single young person, on relatively low wages, just cannot afford. What’s even more infuriating is that many of these apartments are still vacant despite having been available to rent since early summer! Then there’s the old people’s complex, not so far away either, which is all boarded up with not a sign of anything being done to upgrade it to current living standards. I despair when I see and read about the effect the lack of housing has on the mental health of people, particularly our younger people. I love my country but it makes me sad that it has nothing to offer my children, in terms of housing. It’s no wonder so many people are emigrating. – Yours, etc, DEE DELANY, Raheny, Dublin 5.
November 17, 2025 at 8:34 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
here’s a permitted building that goes to 29 floors (so no ladder rescue possible), 1 stairs, open plan kitchens without internal lobbies.. how do you firefight here without filling the escape stairs with smoke, & trapping occupants above?
floor plan of residential tower, single stairs
November 16, 2025 at 5:20 PM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
👀
November 16, 2025 at 12:32 PM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Again with the “seomra” shed-sit www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Orla Hegarty: No. Without careful handling, this could be less 'Dermot Bannon' and more 'hermit cabin' The proposal to permit small homes in back gardens is the offer of a hospital trolley when you really need a bed. In some circumstances it suits people to live in close quarters with others, and the planning system can accommodate this. But the risk is that this proposal represents the continued erosion of hard-won standards, with potential unintended consequences in the housing sector, and new challenges for State authorities. Currently, a greenhouse, garage, store or shed up to 25sq m is generally exempt from planning permission, but it may not be lived in. The Government's proposal is to increase this to 40sq m for a separate residence. Worryingly, no no minimum has been mentioned, so how low can we go? Irish apartment regulations specify at least 37sqm) equivalent to just three standard parking spaces) for a one-person studio, and 45sq m for a two-person unit. This is important. Space is critical to wellbeing and health, and for human needs, activities, hygiene, comfort, safety, socialising, disability and so on. This is why the recent “co-living” experiment of 15sq m rooms was ended just two years after its introduction. The small size of a garden cabin suggests the initiative is intended for single people, although the reality will likely mean they are used by couples and families, and overcrowding may ensue. Not being “officially” available for rent will put them outside the scrutiny of the Residential Tenancies Board and inspection of minimum standards. It is already evident from rental and holiday websites that unauthorised “chalets” are in use, some costing more than €100 per night. A 2021 US study by the National Association of Realtors found that accessory dwelling units (ADUs) added 35 per cent per cent to the value of a home. So, whether the new “site” is developed or not, there could be an inflationary effect in some residential neighbourhoods.
November 16, 2025 at 11:34 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
“supply is not cause of Ireland’s housing problems..existing output & vac­ant dwellings have been sufficient for rise in households since 2011

The real problem is housing costs are too high & Govt determination to turbo- charge housing delivery is making it worse” www.independent.ie/irish-news/w...
If you were travelling northbound on the N2 while trying to get to Cork, flooring the accelerator would not solve your problem. You're going in the wrong direction The Government's latest housing plan doubles down on a blueprint that has delivered lousy outcomes for a decade. Policy has taken a wrong turn, and doing more of the same won't solve anything From the first line of Delivering Homes, Building Communities, the Government's fixation on increasing supply is evident. Its aim of delivering 300,000 units by 2030 represents an 80pc increase on targets in its previous plan, Housing for All But supply is not the cause of Ireland's housing problems CSO data shows that existing output levels, along with the reoccupation of vacant dwellings, have been sufficient to accommodate the rise in household numbers since 2011 The real problem is that housing costs are too high, and the Government's determination to turbo- charge housing delivery at all costs is making this worse The plan's starter homes programme merely repackages a collection of existing home-purchase subsidies. These appear to benefit buyers, but in fact only get added to the price of new homes, driving up prices and leaving consumers worse off. Government consultants recommended that Help-to-Buy, the oldest and largest of these schemes, be scrapped by 2024. Instead, its life has been extended until 2030 Throwing more money at these failed interventions is the policy equivalent of driving faster to the wrong destination. Optimists may welcome the increased emphasis on costs, but new measures for apartments, such as reduced standards and Vat cuts, are designed to reduce costs for developers rather than for home-buyers The goal is to boost development profits, stimulating more building. But it does nothing for the consumers who are left with inferior housing and higher taxes to pay for the Vat cuts. Dr John McCartney lectures in property economics at TU Dublin and is an adjunct associate professor at UCD
November 16, 2025 at 9:05 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
☢️ “Government to hit
'nuclear button' granting itself emergency powers to solve infrastructure crisis” -Business Post
Business Post headline Government to hit 'nuclear button' granting itself emergency powers to solve infrastructure crisis International headline Amazon, Google, and Meta Support Global Initiative to Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity by 2050
November 16, 2025 at 8:49 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
New build 3-bed house price

June 2021
Clonard Wexford €175k
Carlow Town €199k
Sligo €175k
Portlaoise €212k

Nov 2025
Clonard Wexford €360k ⬆️106%
Carlow Town €330k (2bed) ⬆️66%
Sligo €270 (duplex) ⬆️54%
Portlaoise €370k⬆️ 75%

Construction tender inflation 2021-25 ≈⬆️28% (SCSI) so it’s not bricks/mortar
Carlow pic Portlaoise pic Sligo pic Wexford pic
November 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
this 🧵 was originally posted in ~that other place~ on 12 June 2021 & is re-posted here unedited bsky.app/profile/orla...
Pic original thread
November 15, 2025 at 10:30 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the housing affordability problem

#10 Market prices are not in the main driven by construction costs (current difficulties with pandemic & Brexit aside)

As evidenced by sales prices of private developers outside Dublin <€212,000 3-bed houses
new house Wexford €175000 New house Sligo €175000 New house Portlaoise €212500 New house Carlow €199000
November 15, 2025 at 10:26 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the housing affordability problem

#9 Market prices are now being driven by ‘unprecedented amounts of global capital invested in housing as security trading on global markets’
-UN Special Rapporteur Letter to Ireland 2019
We are writing to express our concem with respect to your Government's practice of adopting laws and policies which treat housing as a commodity and undermine the enjoyment of housing as a human right. We invite you to reflect on the following concerns with a view to developing a human rights based response. pur chief concern lies with those laws and policies which have allowed unprecedented amounts of global capital to be invested in housing as security for financial instruments that are traded on global markets, and as a means of accumulating wealth. This expanding role and unprecedented dominance of unregulated financial markets and corporations in the housing sector is now generally referred to as the "financialization of housing" and it is having devastating consequences for tenants Contrary to international human rights obligations, investment in housing in the Republic of Ireland has disconnected housing from its core social purpose of providing people with a place to live in with security and dignity.
November 15, 2025 at 10:24 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#8 In 2006, 90,000 new homes were built in Ireland & house prices didn’t drop

House prices fell during 2008-13 in a fire sale following a financial crash, caused by property speculation (pic @finfacts)
Graph of prices falling from 2007/8 to 2013 before beginning to recover
November 15, 2025 at 10:23 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#7 supply of residential property ≠ supply of housing

In London ‘score of flats lie empty’

(Dublin already has high vacancy rates in new high-price build-to-rent developments) www.theguardian.com/artanddesign...
The capital is well used to high-rise, high-end totems by now, but VNEB takes the iniquities of the real estate-industrial complex to extremes. It is a place where penthouses with private chapels and running tracks loom above crumbling council estates across the railway line, where scores of flats lie empty, held by secretive shell companies in off-shore tax havens, and where the division between absentee investors and owner-occupiers confined to poor doors could not be more stark. Dogged by allegations of cronyism and gerrymandering, it is the product of politicians in thrall to property developers, driven by a blind faith in the market - even when investors started to realise that they might have bought into a mirage.
November 15, 2025 at 10:22 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#6 ‘additional 1% housing stock expected to lower house prices (& rents) by around 1.5-2%, all else equal’

In Dublin an extra 5,000 new homes may cut €350,000 price by €5,250-7,000 housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
Chapter 5 Chapter 5
November 15, 2025 at 10:20 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#4 European Commission say it’s not costs that are the problem, it’s a lack of competition

Market is almost closed to new entrants because of high barriers to accessing land & finance commission.europa.eu/document/dow...
The surge in house prices in recent years seems to have been mainly driven by increases in land prices and construction margins. Market reports (SCSI, 2016-2019) suggest a significant growth in residential land values since 2015, particularly in Dublin, also pointing out to insufficient land supply. Land Price inflation in Dublin, while slightly declining since 2016, still records two-digit values, well exceeding housing price inflation from 2015 to 2017 (Graph 8). However, land price inflation alone cannot explain high house price inflation since land prices only represent between 17% and 30% of house prices. Neither can construction cost inflation, which has been relatively low in recent years. In particular, in the three years to mid-2019, the annual average rate of inflation of the wholesale price of building and constructions materials and of weekly construction labour costs has been, respectively, 2% and 0.9% in Ireland. Taxes, levies and fees and finance and marketing costs have not surged. Therefore, high inflation values may be partly explained by an increase in margins, which may indicate insufficient competition
November 15, 2025 at 10:18 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#3 Speculative developers now have high sales prices baked-in to financing.. if market prices drop they may lose funding, they can’t build & sell at a loss

*this from current apartment proposal in Dublin 7
List of sales prices > €500,000
November 15, 2025 at 10:15 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
🇮🇪 Data centre map www.datacentermap.com/ireland/
Map showing 110 data centres in Dublin, 1 Cork, 1 Limerick, 2 Galway, 139 in total
November 14, 2025 at 6:07 PM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
“as incomes catch up, houses will become more affordable” - TCD Economist Barra Roantree on RTE Primetime

..I’m not an economist, but wanting wage inflation in order to put more money into housing, & damaging Ireland’s competitiveness in the process? Very high risk & very unnecessary #Speirgorm
November 14, 2025 at 3:10 PM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Minister Coveney, the property lobbyists & the disastrous “fast track” SHD process that led to all the judicial reviews
pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/portalfil...
Page 14-15 in link
November 13, 2025 at 2:18 PM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
DeHoBuCo* is out

*Delivering Homes, Building Communities 2025-2030: An Action Plan on Housing Supply and Targeting Homelessness

www.gov.ie/en/departmen...
Cover page
November 13, 2025 at 9:32 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
“Rebuilding Ireland” (2016 housing plan) has disappeared for the web, so shared here for anyone who’d like a look back drive.google.com/file/d/1wEZJ...
Cover page
November 13, 2025 at 9:08 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
here’s the actual ACP decision (now published). The news headlines are very misleading. This site is zoned for open space. www.pleanala.ie/anbordpleana...
Page 3 on link Page 4 on link
November 13, 2025 at 8:39 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
‘Irish Times headline “Brent geese put paid to 580 Dublin apartments” does a disservice both to journalism & to environmental protection’
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/lett...

(Irish Independent blamed the geese too, & both papers published the story before the decision was publicly available)
Irish Independent: Concerns for Brent goose help block 580 new homes in Dublin Irish Times: Brent geese put paid to 580 new apartments near St Anne's Park in Dublin
November 13, 2025 at 8:31 AM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
“Who knows how many children I & my friends would have with [affordable housing] -enough to maintain pension-paying workforce. Govt strategy of pinning pension hopes on migrants is incredibly short-sighted & a tragedy for Irish women
-Emma Murphy (full text in alt) www.irishtimes.com/opinion/lett...
Sir, – David McWilliams hits the nail on the head in his article when he offers the following explanation as to why “we are having fewer children later; from an economic perspective, an obvious reason for this is precariousness” (“The middle-aged run Ireland. But the young have to pay for it,” November 8th). I cannot express how seriously the housing crisis has impacted me (35 years old and female) and my friends. I and my peers, all high-achievers, have been unable to have any (dearly wanted) children to date due to severe lack of financial security. Who indeed would want to bring a child into life sleeping in their parents’ spare bedroom, or in a flat share or rental, with no way to provide the stability and financial security that home ownership brings? On a recent visit to a friend in Copenhagen, I was struck by how many couples in their young 20s had multiple babies. She explained the maternity benefits there (up to €680/week), split between parents so both have equal opportunity to spend time with the baby/return to careers; housing benefits, etc. Women there are in no way disadvantaged by having children. Housing is secure, high quality and affordable for all, so women leave college and don’t put off having children in order to attain security later in life. Their security is guaranteed and women have more children, younger, because of it. Who knows how many children I and my friends would have had with such supports – certainly more than enough to maintain or increase the pension-paying workforce into the future. The Government’s strategy of pinning pension hopes on migrant workers (who are nevertheless welcome here), is incredibly short-sighted and a tragedy for Irish women. – Yours, etc, EMMA MURPHY, (Written from my childhood bedroom), Ballybougal, Co Dublin
November 12, 2025 at 6:11 PM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
So nobody (NOBODY?) in Depts Finance or Housing knows how to calculate a residual land value? 😬

Minister ”impact [VAT reduction] is going to have on price of development land is not a matter that has been raised with me so far in analysis we have done” www.kildarestreet.com/committees/?...
November 11, 2025 at 6:42 PM
orla-hegarty.bsky.social
Waiting for the Christmas tree.. #Miggeldy #Speirgorm #Aras25
Christmas knitted ornament of former President Michael D. Higgins
November 11, 2025 at 2:54 PM