Our findings demonstrate that in an era of heightened polarization, corporate-political alignment represents a significant economic component of stock returns. This provides novel evidence on how electoral uncertainty transmits through financial markets 4/4 Link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

We analyzed 71 firms using PolyMarket & PredictIt data alongside OpenSecrets contribution records. Our local projection framework revealed a clear "dose-response" relationship - stronger partisan ties = larger stock price effects when electoral odds shifted 3/4

When Trump's election probability increased by 1 percentage point, Republican-affiliated firms outperformed Democratic-leaning counterparts by ~0.3%. Effects emerged within hours and persisted for weeks, suggesting markets efficiently price political connections 2/4