3)
Nobody will do anything about it. (8/8)

They will portray Trump lifting the settler sanctions as the right moment to carry out a renewed ethnic cleaning campaign, as if to say “ball don’t lie.” (7/8)

The settlers have been ramping up their demands to do to Jenin, Nablus, and Tulkarm what was done to Gaza. This is the part they’ve been waiting for. Settlers will try and drive entire Palestinian communities off their land, as they did after Oct 7. (6/8)

2)
Israel will launch a major military operation in the West Bank soon. The Israeli army will largely withdraw from Gaza per the ceasefire deal, but will regularly send in troops to operate there. The world will be too focused on the killing and destruction in West Bank to even object. (5/8)

I’m reminded of the days before Mohammed Abu Khdeir was murdered. But at such larger of a scale. It’s terrifying. (4/8)

Netanyahu will use this manipulatively aggravated national trauma to double down on the need to eliminate Hamas completely, but it will also tear at an already fractured Israeli society. And the genocidiers will use it as a tool to further dehumanize and demonize Palestinians. (3/8)

Hamas has long been saying the two children and their mother were killed in an airstrike but Israel has never declared the family to be dead, so Israeli society has been holding up photos of this baby for 15 months as a symbol of the urgency of a hostage release—and to dehumanize Palestinians. (2/8)

Define winning and losing however you want, but this man always figures out how to live to see another day.

This way Netanyahu buys himself another six weeks to avoid making up his mind about whether to go back to genocide and stay in power or end the war and face uncertain elections.

Meanwhile, Lapid has publicly offered to keep the government in power in order to get a hostage deal done (but only that long).

"Ending Israel's genocidal campaign against Palestinians in Gaza is of course a long-overdue welcome development but without guarantees that Israel can never again carry out such atrocities, it is but a single gulp of fresh air," said DAWN's Israeli-Palestine research director @omerman.bsky.social.

Of course Netanyahu is the one who put Ben Gvir in charge of the prisons. And of course Israel doesn't even have a law explicitly criminalizing torture. Scapegoating the extremist he himself empowered allows Netanyahu to make a systemic issue seem like the non-systemic work of a bad apple.

"Israel Bonds are one of the most significant sources of financing for illicit Israeli activities in Palestine, from the violent expansion of West Bank settlements to offsetting the enormous costs of the genocidal campaign in Gaza," said DAWN's @omerman.bsky.social.