Russia shouldn't be allowed to set rules of war — former Finnish intel chief
Russia continues to stage provocations. We have seen Russian drones entering the airspace of Poland, Romania, and Denmark, while tensions across the Baltic Sea remain extremely high. Europe may now be facing the prospect of a major war.I say that this is a very typical Russian hybrid operation. These two actions cause fear and uncertainty among the population and create problems, for example for air-traffic safety.At the same time, they can keep some deniability about who is behind the actions, even though everybody knows it’s the Russians. "Unfortunately, this kind of activity has been increasing for a decade, and it will continue to grow as long as we don’t make Russia pay for it. When there’s no attribution, there’s no motive for Russia to stop, because it sees that this works for them."What we should do is make Russia pay through economic sanctions, for example, so that every time there are such activities we impose sanctions on Russia. For example, intelligence services say that Russian “shadow-fleet” tankers are being used as platforms for these drone activities. Therefore, we should hit the shadow fleet hard.Russia appears ready to escalate further. The EU and the U.S. are prepared to respond with sanctions and possibly more – including potential discussions on supplying Tomahawk missiles.As for the European Union’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, will that support hold as Russia continues to step up its provocations? Moscow is clearly signaling a readiness to escalate. Article 5 of the Euro-Atlantic Treaty is supposed to apply, yet Russian drones still penetrate the airspace of the Baltic states, Denmark, and others.Russia is threatening us in multiple ways. It creates a military threat, but it also uses hybrid operations against us.The main target is to break the unity of the NATO Alliance and the European Union, because NATO and the EU are what prevent Russia from taking over Ukraine and Europe. That is why they are attacking us by all possible means. I don’t think we should wait for the Americans to act.It is primarily Europe’s responsibility to respond to Russian aggression in different ways. We need both NATO and the EU. NATO is the military arm that has defended Europe for over 80 years. But when it comes to hybrid threats, NATO has a limited toolbox, while the EU, through its economic power, can impose sanctions on Russia and hit its economy where it is most vulnerable.At the same time, we must continue supporting Ukraine. This is not a question of money. "If we were to fully replace American support for Ukraine and continue it ourselves, it would cost about 0.3% of the European Union’s gross national product annually to keep Ukraine fighting. That is less than most European countries give in development aid to Africa and the Middle East."This is a question of political will. But I am confident we will find this political will, because the majority of European leaders understand that if we let Ukraine fall, it will not be enough for Putin – he will then go after the next country.When Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, our military partly looked to Finland’s own history – the Winter War and Soviet aggression. Now, much of Europe, and indeed the wider world, is looking to Ukraine’s experience.What key lessons has Finland drawn from the way Ukraine has organized its defense? Your country has since joined NATO, and we know how harshly and aggressively the Kremlin has always reacted to NATO enlargement. It is quite possible that the next provocation could be aimed at Finland.Finland prepared to defend itself independently even while a member of the EU. We built a system that uses all national resources for defense. "The war in Ukraine has shown this is a good solution: when Russia attacks, it does not only target the armed forces – it attacks the whole nation; society as a whole becomes a target."Armed forces therefore need large reserves. Unfortunately, the only sure things in war are that people die and are wounded, so you need many reserves to be able to continue fighting longer than small professional armies can. You also need the best possible technology: long-range engagement capability, a strong air force, electronic warfare, and so on. We have procured 64 F-35s, long-range cruise missiles, powerful artillery and armor, and we maintain among the largest reserves in Europe.At the same time you must protect civil society – a concept we call total defence. The whole society must be prepared for war: shelters for 70% of the population, civil authorities ready to operate under attack, and people trained to act and survive in a crisis.The entire society needs to be prepared for Russian activity, whether it is a cyber attack, an information operation, or a military strike.The world seems to be on the brink of a Third World War. One can only hope that Russia recognizes the risks and dangers its actions carry. Much will depend on the positions taken by the United States and China. For Europe, the best approach is to remain properly prepared. When it comes to the possible expansion of the war across the continent, what kind of timeframe are we really talking about?I totally agree that tensions are very high and we are sitting on a geopolitical powder keg because the United States and the West have shown weakness. Dictatorships like Russia and China see an opportunity to take what they want.One possible scenario is that China, which has prepared for decades to take Taiwan by force, decides now is the time to act. An attack on Taiwan would tie up the United States in the Pacific just as tensions in Europe escalate."If the U.S. Armed Forces were unable to participate in Europe’s defence, I am not overly pessimistic. I think Europe can defend itself without the Americans."We have three times as many fighter planes, several times more armour than Russia, and forces that are better trained and more motivated. Of course, without U.S. joint capabilities and leadership, defending Europe would be far more difficult and we would suffer greater losses. But we are adults with resources – we can do it ourselves if we choose to.Generals are often accused of preparing for the wars of the past. Today military strategy is being reshaped by the reality of drone warfare. Russia is rapidly expanding production and Ukrainian commanders are warning that every country must rethink its approach to air defense. Is there now a sense that Europe urgently needs to adjust its strategy for protecting its skies? The scale of Russia’s drone production, possibly with help from North Korea, is staggering. And these are not just drones; they are death falling from the sky.We must remember that there is rarely a “silver bullet” in military history, no single weapon system decides a war. Drones are a new weapon on the battlefield, and when a new system arrives it dominates for a while until countermeasures are developed.We’re now creating counter-UAV and counter-drone systems and developing our own offensive drone capabilities. Very soon the impact of drones will return to a normal level.The most important thing is not to let Russia fight on its terms. Russia uses attrition warfare in Ukraine and employs drones in a very static way. "If we end up fighting on Russian territory, we should fight the way the West wants to fight: achieve air supremacy, destroy the attackers’ command-and-control, logistics, and support systems from the air, then insert mechanized forces and wage maneuver warfare – something the Russians do not do well."To do that we must both defend against enemy drones and use our own. Above all, we must not let the Russians dictate how the war is fought.In addition to drones, Russia is also using its strategic and tactical aviation. Not long ago, Russian aircraft violated Estonian airspace. There was no response, and officials dismissed it as a situational, one-off incident. But is there genuine readiness to stop Russian aerial provocations? Such incidents have happened before, with Russia provoking both the British and the Americans. Now, however, this is no longer just provocation but a clear signal of readiness to escalate. Donald Trump has said Europeans should shoot down Russian planes, while the Russian ambassador to France has publicly warned that doing so would mean war.I’d say the bottom line is that every time something or someone enters your airspace without permission, whether it’s a drone, a large Shahed UAV, or a fighter jet, you have the right to defend yourself and to chase it away or destroy it if it does not follow your orders.The challenge is that Russia knows NATO’s procedures and rules of engagement well. In the Baltic region, for example, NATO’s air policing mission is essentially defensive and tries to avoid the use of force. We should change the rules and declare this an air defense mission.Baltic airspace should be defended with force if needed. We should remove the weakest link from the command chain, which is politicians. In the incident in Estonia, Italian F-35s were escorting a Russian aircraft and trying to get it to leave the airspace, but the decision to use force rested with the Italian prime minister.A long chain of command takes time to reach the leader and obtain approval. We should declare an Air Defence Mission and delegate decisions on the use of force to the military, so that the combined air operation centre responsible for air defence in the Baltic Sea region, for example, has the authority to act.After that, we would operate normally. If there is an airspace violation, a NATO plane would intercept, order the violating aircraft to leave, fire a warning shot if it does not comply, and, if necessary, shoot it down.I think even this alone would stop many Russian airspace violations because they would understand that NATO is prepared to use force and that the decision to do so is delegated to military commanders who can act immediately.There are certain direct military indicators that support the assumption that Russia may be trying to expand the geography of its aggression or raise the level of escalation. But there are also indirect indicators linked to the militarization of society and the creation of a new enemy image. This is not secret information. Russians are starting to speak of a “bad Europe preparing to go to war against Russia,” which is a clear sign that they are getting ready. How far is Russian propaganda now from the actual material preparations for a major war? At present, there are no joint European armed forces, but every NATO member state has a sufficient level of both ground forces and aviation.I totally agree. Our problem is no longer just Putin. Our problem is Russia. Putin has poured huge effort into propaganda at home, telling Russians that the West is attacking Russia, that we want to destroy Russia as an independent country and culture, and that a new Great Patriotic War is needed to defend Russia from Western aggression. Many Russians have lived their whole lives under Putin’s rule and do not know anything different.In Finland, for example, Russians now claim we are fascists and that we want territories we supposedly lost after the Second World War. These are lies, but more and more Russians are beginning to believe them. From kindergarten onward children are exposed to propaganda and are taught that they must be prepared to die for the fatherland against an impending Western attack."At the same time, Russia is preparing for a second round against the West by building strategic reserves. Not all recruited soldiers are sent to the Ukrainian front. Some are stationed in garrisons on the western borders. Not all newly produced tanks and artillery go to Ukraine; many are being held back for the western front. Not all missiles are used against Ukraine; some are sent to storage. They are concentrating forces against the West."The situation becomes especially dangerous if Donald Trump remains in power, because his response to a small, limited military operation against a NATO country would be uncertain. Putin hates democracy, despises what he sees as Western weakness, and believes that if he pushes hard enough the West will not respond and will crumble like dominoes. He is willing to take risks and sacrifice thousands of soldiers to test whether the West will push back. We must be prepared.I recently spoke with the European Commissioner for Defence and Space, Kubilius, who assured me that there is a united position on funding. But we also know that money alone is not enough. In the face of a possible new attack, what is needed is rearmament, expanded weapons production, and additional air defense systems. How would you assess the pace of reassurance, preparation, and production of the essential resources required for defense?Well, I'd say we have to be very careful not to mix the roles of NATO and the EU. NATO is the organisation that defends Europe and has the plans and command structures to do it.The European Union’s role must be to build the tools for NATO to help rebuild our defence industry so we have the capacity to produce weapon systems, ammunition, and whatever else is needed. We also must invest in research and development. Even though everyone is asking now for more artillery shells, more tanks, and so on, in 20 years the capabilities we need may be very different.Now is the time to research and develop those new capabilities, whether they are autonomous drones, AI-powered systems, or defensive systems designed to counter them. We need to put effort into that. At the same time, we must improve military mobility. As you mentioned, Europe has a lot of military power, but it is often in the wrong place.To move millions of soldiers, if necessary, from western Europe to the east or south, we need better military mobility capabilities. The EU must build those. When we talk about defence production and weapon systems, it is also hard to predict how long a war will last. Putin thought he could seize Ukraine in three days; now we are in the fourth year. No one planned ammunition stockpiles for a four-year war.What is more important is that we build up defence-industry capacity so we can multiply production very quickly if needed. We must ensure we have sufficient ammunition depots and factories so we can ramp up output fast.We need larger stockpiles than we have now so we can fight through the first six months while the defence industry scales up. Europe must be more united in this. We must adhere more closely to NATO standards; only about half of those standards are currently implemented NATO-wide.We need an industry that produces the same products to the same standards across countries, and we must pursue more joint efforts so we do not end up with many incompatible types of main battle tanks or fighter aircraft in the future. We also need new capabilities to replace or supplement what the United States provides: command and control, intelligence and targeting, strategic airlift, strategic air refuelling, and long-range weapon systems. Europe must be able to build those systems if the Americans cannot provide them.The key is producing fast and in sufficient quantity. It is no coincidence that Russia is now threatening EU countries with possible escalation – their goal is to make Europe divert the very resources we are receiving from our European partners. In the Baltic states and in Denmark, concern is running high. People who only recently lived in peace are struggling to grasp that military provocations could now be aimed at them.As for support for Ukraine, the U.S. administration has, over the past six months, both surprised and unsettled us. No one knows what Donald Trump or JD Vance might say tomorrow, and that uncertainty affects both defense readiness and strategic planning. Turkish President Erdoğan has said that NATO and Europe cannot support Ukraine forever. We are not asking for eternal support – only until victory. But the road to that victory is still a long one.I think that even though building up the European defence industry has been painfully slow in most countries, it is happening.Now we see that when the industry ramps up, the curve is very steep. For example, before Russia’s attack, Europe produced barely 300,000 artillery shells a year. Next year we will produce over three million, and production is still increasing. The industry is coming up and capabilities are growing.What we should do now is not focus only on our own short-term national interests but on Ukraine’s needs. We should be willing to take a calculated risk and draw down some of our stockpiles to give Ukraine what it really needs. We still have a lot of material. Europe has more than 5,000 main battle tanks. We have thousands of artillery pieces and millions of shells in storage, and we are producing more every month."If we make the political decision to do so, I believe we can provide Ukraine with the support it needs."But it is also important to learn from how this war is being fought. We do not want to lock Ukraine into an attritional front-line conflict where Russia sends small infantry units and then relies on artillery to inflict mass casualties. We should do more to support Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities.The Ukrainians have shown how effective domestically built drones and missiles can be when used against Russian energy infrastructure. About a quarter of Russia’s petroleum infrastructure has been damaged, and fuel shortages are widespread.We should invest more in our own long-range systems so we can produce many more Taurus and Storm Shadow cruise missiles and do so faster. We should also help Ukraine develop similar capabilities so it can conduct long-range strikes more effectively. With those kinds of weapons, Ukraine can seriously degrade the Russian war industry and economy.How do Europeans view the developments in Ukraine today? The European Parliament recently passed a rather troubling resolution on the country. You lead a European Parliament delegation that closely follows specific areas – what progress is being made and where gaps remain. Ukrainians face a highly ambitious task: despite the war, we must prepare our country for EU membership.But the path is far from smooth. The United States has pressed President Zelensky on the issue of elections. Yet holding them now could seriously endanger Ukraine’s stability, with emotions running high and the added risk of Russian political provocations. How is Europe evaluating Ukraine’s democratic progress under these conditions?I think that although building up the European defence industry has been painfully slow in most countries, it is happening."Most members of parliament and European leaders understand that Europe is not safe until Ukraine is safe, and Ukraine is not safe until it becomes a member of the European Union and NATO."Our role in the European Parliament is to safeguard Ukraine’s integration into Europe, which is essential for its future. As a member of the EU, Ukraine would gain certain security guarantees. For example, Article 42(7) TEU can be used to ensure that European nations provide support to other member states. Most importantly, membership would integrate Ukraine’s economy into the European economy. Over the past three decades, we have seen that all former Warsaw Pact countries and Eastern European states once under Soviet domination improved dramatically after joining the EU. Their living standards rose, their GDP multiplied, and their economies grew much stronger. At the same time, their democratic institutions were reinforced. That is why it is so important to stay on this track, even though some countries, like Hungary and Slovakia, try to obstruct our efforts. I am confident we will continue the process and integrate Ukraine into the EU. Our aim is that by 2030 Ukraine will be a member of the European Union, and I firmly believe this is achievable.Do you personally believe there is any prospect for peace talks with Russia – in any format at all?Unfortunately, I do not believe that Putin has any real interest in peace talks. He is simply buying time, still trapped in his own bubble. No one dares to tell him that the war is not going well at the front.He continues to believe that with enough time and one more offensive, he can force Ukraine to surrender and achieve his goals. That is why there are no genuine peace talks taking place – nothing meaningful is happening.The only way to create the conditions for peace talks is to support Ukraine strongly while at the same time hitting the Russian economy with sanctions and other measures so severely that Russia is forced to come to the negotiating table ready to accept a peace that Ukraine can accept.For this, we must continue to support Ukraine and continue to punish Russia for its actions. It will take time. Unfortunately, I believe it will take more than a year to reach that point, but giving up now is not an option.