Crucially, the location of JPs in 1700 was not driven by anticipated growth — meaning the effect is causal, not just correlation.
In other words: more JPs → better long-term development outcomes. 5/7

We find that counties with more JPs in 1700 saw:
✅ Higher population growth
✅ Faster urbanization
✅ Greater economic diversification
✅ More infrastructure and innovation
✅ Better human capital (via apprenticeships)
4/7

🔍 Who were the JPs?
They were local elites—usually unpaid, but powerful—tasked with matters from contract enforcement to infrastructure oversight.
Their presence made legal systems more accessible, faster, & cheaper—especially in an age before a professional paid bureaucracy 3/7

We often hear the state had little to do with Britain’s Industrial Revolution. We argue otherwise.
Using novel data, we show that “street-level” legal capacity, via JPs, played a crucial role in enforcing property rights, resolving disputes & managing public goods. 2/7

How did local legal institutions power the British Industrial Revolution?

In a new working paper (with Tim Besley, Dan Bogart, and Jonathan Chapman @jnchapman-econ.bsky.social, we show that Justices of the Peace — magistrates acting locally — were a quiet engine behind modern economic growth. 🧵👇1/7

The state’s failure to monopolize coercive power was the main constraint to the building up of fiscal capacity.

Open access link to the paper (which will also be released as a CEPR discussion paper):
documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx...

We investigate the fiscal trajectory of the Chinese state from the late Qing period to the foundation of the People’s Republic of China. State capacity remained low throughout this long period, preventing economic modernization.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞: 𝐀 𝐅𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚, 𝟏𝟖𝟓𝟎-𝟏𝟗𝟒𝟗
New paper by H. Guan, @kivanckaraman.bsky.social, Z. Xu and myself.

This period in Chinese history is commonly referred to as the “Century of Humiliation” (百年国耻).

𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲
New paper by K. Karaman, A. Henriques, & myself. Contrary to conventional wisdom we find that constrained government & state capacity were not systematically related. England stood out for combining both which helps explain its take-off

Predoc opportunity available! Arthur Lewis Lab Predoctoral Fellow, The Arthur Lewis Lab for Comparative Development, University of Manchester.

2 year position to be announced soon. In the meanwhile, informal enquiries / expressions of interest can be sent to Nuno Palma (by email, please.)