Definitely also a confounding factor! Not one that goes in Zohran’s favor though.

lol. I didn’t realize people still tweeted like this. It’s like a brain frozen in 2018 was just thawed.

As good a reason as any I suppose.

I think it is totally plausible that marginal voters broke for Trump 66/33 in Michigan.

Also - wow, I knew turnout was up in swing states, but I didn’t realize just how high it was in MI. Up 6.6pp from 2020 to 77 percent.

Marginal voters were more Trump friendly than in 2020. If turnout were lower, fewer marginal voters would have cast their ballots for Trump.

Harris probably would have won if turnout were 2-3 points lower nationally. If it were 2012 levels, it would have been a blowout.

*reams of polling, not teams of polling.

Here’s a piece I wrote for Noahpinion laying out the arg, though if you follow me on social media you’ll know I’ve been signing this tune since 2018. It just took a while for the conventional wisdom to acknowledge the new reality.

www.noahpinion.blog/p/dont-rock-...

When turnout is low — particularly in special elections, Dems
Overpreform.

Heck - a solid 6.8% of Trump voters didn’t bother to vote for the GOP senate candidate in swing states. Compare that to 0.1% drop off for Harris voters.

Turnout was up in the swing states. We know from teams of polling that Trump preformed best with lower propensity voters, and voters who don’t follow the news.

We’ve seen evidence of this in basically every election of the Trump era. When Trump is on the ballot turnout is high and GOP does well.