Sven Henrich
@northmantrader.bsky.social
Founder: NorthmanTrader. Financial Market Strategist. Macro & Technical Analysis. Keeping it real. To subscribe: https://northmantrader.com/market-services/
Seems like key decision time upcoming for the US dollar. $DXY
June 12, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Seems like key decision time upcoming for the US dollar. $DXY
As I said: Resistance. $RUT
June 11, 2025 at 6:29 PM
As I said: Resistance. $RUT
$RUT updated, now hitting its 200MA resistance.
June 11, 2025 at 12:42 PM
$RUT updated, now hitting its 200MA resistance.
Market of the unfilled gaps:
8 open gaps since the April lows.
$SPX
8 open gaps since the April lows.
$SPX
June 6, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Market of the unfilled gaps:
8 open gaps since the April lows.
$SPX
8 open gaps since the April lows.
$SPX
The last time the dollar showed 6 monthly red candles in a row was in 2017 during the 1st Trump administration.
$DXY
$DXY
June 5, 2025 at 1:34 PM
The last time the dollar showed 6 monthly red candles in a row was in 2017 during the 1st Trump administration.
$DXY
$DXY
30 year yield updated: Break of wedge followed by short term bounce, now new lows.
June 4, 2025 at 6:07 PM
30 year yield updated: Break of wedge followed by short term bounce, now new lows.
$RUT updated: More follow through on potential right shoulder build.
May 27, 2025 at 6:20 PM
$RUT updated: More follow through on potential right shoulder build.
Are yields in process of peaking?
Big rising wedge on the 30 year. TBD.
Big rising wedge on the 30 year. TBD.
May 27, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Are yields in process of peaking?
Big rising wedge on the 30 year. TBD.
Big rising wedge on the 30 year. TBD.
May 22, 2025 at 12:56 PM
As in last week $SPX has again found resistance at the weekly 50MA with the weekly 20MA still looming above.
For full context see video above.
For full context see video above.
May 9, 2025 at 8:02 PM
As in last week $SPX has again found resistance at the weekly 50MA with the weekly 20MA still looming above.
For full context see video above.
For full context see video above.
After all that's been happening what if I told you the broader $NYSE Composite index $NYA is down only 1% YTD?
April 28, 2025 at 10:54 AM
After all that's been happening what if I told you the broader $NYSE Composite index $NYA is down only 1% YTD?
This.....is quite the quarterly candle on $SPX
Quarter far from over & a lot can happen but still: Lol
Bulls want to close the quarter above the quarterly 5 EMA, bears below it. Key historic control pivot. Price now right at it.
Quarter far from over & a lot can happen but still: Lol
Bulls want to close the quarter above the quarterly 5 EMA, bears below it. Key historic control pivot. Price now right at it.
April 25, 2025 at 6:19 PM
This.....is quite the quarterly candle on $SPX
Quarter far from over & a lot can happen but still: Lol
Bulls want to close the quarter above the quarterly 5 EMA, bears below it. Key historic control pivot. Price now right at it.
Quarter far from over & a lot can happen but still: Lol
Bulls want to close the quarter above the quarterly 5 EMA, bears below it. Key historic control pivot. Price now right at it.
Asset managers better hope this rally doesn't keep going or risk being left behind/having to chase higher up.
They vastly further reduced exposure during the initial bounce off the lows and hardly added exposure since during the 14% move off the lows.
$NAIIM
They vastly further reduced exposure during the initial bounce off the lows and hardly added exposure since during the 14% move off the lows.
$NAIIM
April 24, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Asset managers better hope this rally doesn't keep going or risk being left behind/having to chase higher up.
They vastly further reduced exposure during the initial bounce off the lows and hardly added exposure since during the 14% move off the lows.
$NAIIM
They vastly further reduced exposure during the initial bounce off the lows and hardly added exposure since during the 14% move off the lows.
$NAIIM
Today in conflicting signal headlines jerking markets every which way:
Bessent: sees de-escalation with China and situation unsustainable.
Bessent: China negotiations will be a slog
Bessent: sees de-escalation with China and situation unsustainable.
Bessent: China negotiations will be a slog
April 22, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Today in conflicting signal headlines jerking markets every which way:
Bessent: sees de-escalation with China and situation unsustainable.
Bessent: China negotiations will be a slog
Bessent: sees de-escalation with China and situation unsustainable.
Bessent: China negotiations will be a slog
This may be totally ridiculous to even contemplate given current sentiment & backdrop, but what if this is setting up as major monthly bull flag on the dollar?
Totally unconfirmed at this stage, but hey.
$DXY
Totally unconfirmed at this stage, but hey.
$DXY
April 21, 2025 at 6:25 PM
This may be totally ridiculous to even contemplate given current sentiment & backdrop, but what if this is setting up as major monthly bull flag on the dollar?
Totally unconfirmed at this stage, but hey.
$DXY
Totally unconfirmed at this stage, but hey.
$DXY
Let's bang on Powell some more, that'll really calm down the bond market and help us refinance trillions of dollars of rolling over debt at much higher rates.
And if that doesn't bring the deficit down we don't know what does.
And if that doesn't bring the deficit down we don't know what does.
April 21, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Let's bang on Powell some more, that'll really calm down the bond market and help us refinance trillions of dollars of rolling over debt at much higher rates.
And if that doesn't bring the deficit down we don't know what does.
And if that doesn't bring the deficit down we don't know what does.
2025: The year of permanent fear or extreme fear.
Not a single reading in greed so far.
Not a single reading in greed so far.
April 21, 2025 at 2:34 PM
2025: The year of permanent fear or extreme fear.
Not a single reading in greed so far.
Not a single reading in greed so far.
Day 10. No trade deals. No off ramp.
No visible end game.
Every day this goes on increases recession risk & with it exploding deficits & more debt needs.
The stated goals of lower deficits, tax cuts, explosive growth & tariffs paying off the debt are becoming mutually exclusive.
No visible end game.
Every day this goes on increases recession risk & with it exploding deficits & more debt needs.
The stated goals of lower deficits, tax cuts, explosive growth & tariffs paying off the debt are becoming mutually exclusive.
April 21, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Day 10. No trade deals. No off ramp.
No visible end game.
Every day this goes on increases recession risk & with it exploding deficits & more debt needs.
The stated goals of lower deficits, tax cuts, explosive growth & tariffs paying off the debt are becoming mutually exclusive.
No visible end game.
Every day this goes on increases recession risk & with it exploding deficits & more debt needs.
The stated goals of lower deficits, tax cuts, explosive growth & tariffs paying off the debt are becoming mutually exclusive.
Asset managers keep reducing long exposure.
Now lowest since fall of 2023.
Now lowest since fall of 2023.
April 17, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Asset managers keep reducing long exposure.
Now lowest since fall of 2023.
Now lowest since fall of 2023.
Future General Business Conditions Diffusion Index has fallen off a cliff.
2nd lowest reading on record, worse than the GFC.
Fwiw: All previous low readings of similar magnitude morphed into cycle lows. 2001, 2009, 2022.
2nd lowest reading on record, worse than the GFC.
Fwiw: All previous low readings of similar magnitude morphed into cycle lows. 2001, 2009, 2022.
April 15, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Future General Business Conditions Diffusion Index has fallen off a cliff.
2nd lowest reading on record, worse than the GFC.
Fwiw: All previous low readings of similar magnitude morphed into cycle lows. 2001, 2009, 2022.
2nd lowest reading on record, worse than the GFC.
Fwiw: All previous low readings of similar magnitude morphed into cycle lows. 2001, 2009, 2022.
Fyi: In addition to the yearly 5 EMA on $SPX getting tagged as outlined above, so did $NDX and it also bounced right off of it.
Full context in video above.
Full context in video above.
April 10, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Fyi: In addition to the yearly 5 EMA on $SPX getting tagged as outlined above, so did $NDX and it also bounced right off of it.
Full context in video above.
Full context in video above.