@noname117spore.bsky.social
They're winning contracts; not subsidies. The only SpaceX subsidy I know of was for less than the sticker price of a single one of their Falcon 9 launches. Every other government dollar I know they've gotten has required they launch, operate, and/or develop something.
July 29, 2025 at 4:47 AM
They're winning contracts; not subsidies. The only SpaceX subsidy I know of was for less than the sticker price of a single one of their Falcon 9 launches. Every other government dollar I know they've gotten has required they launch, operate, and/or develop something.
And one last thing, once an issue with a rocket is found it usually gets fixed, and as such and due to experience rockets typically get more reliable over time too, so that risk ratio would be improving.
1/500 is a pessimistic estimate frankly. 6/6
1/500 is a pessimistic estimate frankly. 6/6
July 29, 2025 at 4:27 AM
And one last thing, once an issue with a rocket is found it usually gets fixed, and as such and due to experience rockets typically get more reliable over time too, so that risk ratio would be improving.
1/500 is a pessimistic estimate frankly. 6/6
1/500 is a pessimistic estimate frankly. 6/6
And it was an upper stage engine. And the payload was able to still deploy, although the orbit was too low for it to survive a week.
Also with Starship I'm pretty sure for the 9 integrated test flights the only engines that exploded were either upper stage or on booster descent. 5/6
Also with Starship I'm pretty sure for the 9 integrated test flights the only engines that exploded were either upper stage or on booster descent. 5/6
July 29, 2025 at 4:27 AM
And it was an upper stage engine. And the payload was able to still deploy, although the orbit was too low for it to survive a week.
Also with Starship I'm pretty sure for the 9 integrated test flights the only engines that exploded were either upper stage or on booster descent. 5/6
Also with Starship I'm pretty sure for the 9 integrated test flights the only engines that exploded were either upper stage or on booster descent. 5/6
Now, having 1 engine explosion in a bit over 500 launches doesn't mean you can just estimate 1/500. Each Falcon 9 has 10 engines per flight; 28 if it's a Falcon Heavy.
By my estimates, Falcon 9 and Heavy combined have gone 1/5,387 on engine explosions. 4/6
By my estimates, Falcon 9 and Heavy combined have gone 1/5,387 on engine explosions. 4/6
July 29, 2025 at 4:27 AM
Now, having 1 engine explosion in a bit over 500 launches doesn't mean you can just estimate 1/500. Each Falcon 9 has 10 engines per flight; 28 if it's a Falcon Heavy.
By my estimates, Falcon 9 and Heavy combined have gone 1/5,387 on engine explosions. 4/6
By my estimates, Falcon 9 and Heavy combined have gone 1/5,387 on engine explosions. 4/6
that resulted in a successful ascent.
There have been a lot more Falcon 9 losses on recovery (which for Starship from the payload's perspective only matters for payloads needing recovery), but I have checked, and all those that were engine failures were shutdowns, not explosions. 3/6
There have been a lot more Falcon 9 losses on recovery (which for Starship from the payload's perspective only matters for payloads needing recovery), but I have checked, and all those that were engine failures were shutdowns, not explosions. 3/6
July 29, 2025 at 4:27 AM
that resulted in a successful ascent.
There have been a lot more Falcon 9 losses on recovery (which for Starship from the payload's perspective only matters for payloads needing recovery), but I have checked, and all those that were engine failures were shutdowns, not explosions. 3/6
There have been a lot more Falcon 9 losses on recovery (which for Starship from the payload's perspective only matters for payloads needing recovery), but I have checked, and all those that were engine failures were shutdowns, not explosions. 3/6
were engine related. 2 of the 4 were, but the other 2 (and the 2 that counted as full credit failures) were instead COPVs failing. Only one of the two that was an engine failure was actually the engine exploding; the other was loss of thrust.
And they also had 1 or 2 more engine shutdowns 2/6
And they also had 1 or 2 more engine shutdowns 2/6
July 29, 2025 at 4:27 AM
were engine related. 2 of the 4 were, but the other 2 (and the 2 that counted as full credit failures) were instead COPVs failing. Only one of the two that was an engine failure was actually the engine exploding; the other was loss of thrust.
And they also had 1 or 2 more engine shutdowns 2/6
And they also had 1 or 2 more engine shutdowns 2/6
That's... that's not how these probabilities have worked. Over 500 successful launches doesn't mean 1 failure for that many. It's actually more like 3 they've lost (2.75 with 4 launches counting against it if giving partial credit for partial failures).
Nor does that mean that those failures 1/6
Nor does that mean that those failures 1/6
July 29, 2025 at 4:27 AM
That's... that's not how these probabilities have worked. Over 500 successful launches doesn't mean 1 failure for that many. It's actually more like 3 they've lost (2.75 with 4 launches counting against it if giving partial credit for partial failures).
Nor does that mean that those failures 1/6
Nor does that mean that those failures 1/6
My life feels like when a sports team isn't technically out of playoff contention, but there's a long chain of unlikely events needed to hit that sub-1% odds.
It already feels like it's over for me, even if I don't intend for it to be. At some point I won't effectively have a choice.
It already feels like it's over for me, even if I don't intend for it to be. At some point I won't effectively have a choice.
November 21, 2024 at 5:49 PM
My life feels like when a sports team isn't technically out of playoff contention, but there's a long chain of unlikely events needed to hit that sub-1% odds.
It already feels like it's over for me, even if I don't intend for it to be. At some point I won't effectively have a choice.
It already feels like it's over for me, even if I don't intend for it to be. At some point I won't effectively have a choice.
It's kind of awful realizing you had a window in your life to actually try and succeed in the world, and you spent the 1st 2/3 of it fighting depression and motivation and the last 3rd was robbed by a pandemic.
November 21, 2024 at 5:49 PM
It's kind of awful realizing you had a window in your life to actually try and succeed in the world, and you spent the 1st 2/3 of it fighting depression and motivation and the last 3rd was robbed by a pandemic.
It does increase dv but it also means you can get around the denser parts of the Van Allen belts so I just assumed that was planned as part of Artemis.
Anyways, seems like the only way to get Orion to the Moon without SLS probably involves 3 launches, not 2.
Anyways, seems like the only way to get Orion to the Moon without SLS probably involves 3 launches, not 2.
November 15, 2024 at 12:39 AM
It does increase dv but it also means you can get around the denser parts of the Van Allen belts so I just assumed that was planned as part of Artemis.
Anyways, seems like the only way to get Orion to the Moon without SLS probably involves 3 launches, not 2.
Anyways, seems like the only way to get Orion to the Moon without SLS probably involves 3 launches, not 2.
Ok, fair criticism I guess, although I would bet a more inclined route to be flown by an Artemis mission anyways so you would expect a slightly lower altitude.
November 14, 2024 at 8:12 PM
Ok, fair criticism I guess, although I would bet a more inclined route to be flown by an Artemis mission anyways so you would expect a slightly lower altitude.
Ozan actually did the math on this one
November 14, 2024 at 7:48 PM
Ozan actually did the math on this one
With a FH launch for Orion and a payload-less Centaur V there's enough dV to get Orion around the moon.
November 14, 2024 at 7:21 PM
With a FH launch for Orion and a payload-less Centaur V there's enough dV to get Orion around the moon.
So the main concern is actually likely “can Orion handle Falcon Heavy?” And “can Orion handle New Glenn?” And “can these rockets get crew rated in time?”
November 14, 2024 at 2:54 PM
So the main concern is actually likely “can Orion handle Falcon Heavy?” And “can Orion handle New Glenn?” And “can these rockets get crew rated in time?”
I should add my main concern, with the lunar kick stage, likely doesn’t exist, since in the currently being investigated proposal they’d use a Centaur V to get from Earth orbit to the moon, which would subject Orion to less Gs than I’m experiencing now typing this and can deep throttle.
November 14, 2024 at 2:54 PM
I should add my main concern, with the lunar kick stage, likely doesn’t exist, since in the currently being investigated proposal they’d use a Centaur V to get from Earth orbit to the moon, which would subject Orion to less Gs than I’m experiencing now typing this and can deep throttle.
I mean it’s expensive, delayed, and has 1 use case.
I guess a lot of that cost is already spent, but still.
I guess a lot of that cost is already spent, but still.
November 14, 2024 at 2:51 PM
I mean it’s expensive, delayed, and has 1 use case.
I guess a lot of that cost is already spent, but still.
I guess a lot of that cost is already spent, but still.
Vulcan's assessed payload is for satellites to orbit. This is a different scenario.
It'll go from having a payload too heavy on liftoff to one that's within capability midway into flight.
With no fairing weight...
Again, it's close. Probably not, but close. Someone needs to do math.
It'll go from having a payload too heavy on liftoff to one that's within capability midway into flight.
With no fairing weight...
Again, it's close. Probably not, but close. Someone needs to do math.
November 14, 2024 at 2:37 PM
Vulcan's assessed payload is for satellites to orbit. This is a different scenario.
It'll go from having a payload too heavy on liftoff to one that's within capability midway into flight.
With no fairing weight...
Again, it's close. Probably not, but close. Someone needs to do math.
It'll go from having a payload too heavy on liftoff to one that's within capability midway into flight.
With no fairing weight...
Again, it's close. Probably not, but close. Someone needs to do math.
do so is too heavy to have the dV to actually get Orion to lunar orbit from LEO.
November 14, 2024 at 2:32 PM
do so is too heavy to have the dV to actually get Orion to lunar orbit from LEO.
I had an idea, but it got shot down on the other website because Blue Origin is too shit at designing upper stages. I think my idea's dead.
It was mostly for trying to get around issues with too much structural load forced through a docking port. Doesn't matter if the only wide enough stage to
It was mostly for trying to get around issues with too much structural load forced through a docking port. Doesn't matter if the only wide enough stage to
November 14, 2024 at 2:32 PM
I had an idea, but it got shot down on the other website because Blue Origin is too shit at designing upper stages. I think my idea's dead.
It was mostly for trying to get around issues with too much structural load forced through a docking port. Doesn't matter if the only wide enough stage to
It was mostly for trying to get around issues with too much structural load forced through a docking port. Doesn't matter if the only wide enough stage to
It's close. It's really close. With the LAS Orion is too heavy for Vulcan. Without it it's doable. With no fairings and the LAS jettisoned partway into flight... it's close. I'm unsure if it could mathematically do it or not.
November 14, 2024 at 2:24 PM
It's close. It's really close. With the LAS Orion is too heavy for Vulcan. Without it it's doable. With no fairings and the LAS jettisoned partway into flight... it's close. I'm unsure if it could mathematically do it or not.