On top of this, what if you cannot even identify where this tipping point is?

Planning to stop only when it becomes visible may fail. The temperature path is nearly identical with (black line) and without (grey line) a tipping point until it’s too late. 😬

(10/14)

In this climate, choosing to stop emitting at τ gives you a benefit J(τ), which depends on whether you are in the low T (grey) or the high T (black) equilibrium.

If you naively trade-off (marginal) benefits and harms, as J keeps increasing, you will keep postponing…

(8/14)

Consider the change in temperature over time dT/dt as a function of temperature T: as we add CO₂ M to the atmosphere, we move from the left panel to the right panel.

(5/14)

Copilot taking the piss.