Noah Goodall
@noahgoodall.bsky.social
Transportation researcher. Pre-prints on personal site. Views are my own, not Commonwealth's. https://profile.virginia.edu/njg2q
Seeing some small errors in the Tesla safety report for no-active-safety (the 2008-2013 "baseline" vehicles) minor crashes. Here's North America. It looks like similar errors in worldwide, so probably something wrong with their counts.
November 15, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Seeing some small errors in the Tesla safety report for no-active-safety (the 2008-2013 "baseline" vehicles) minor crashes. Here's North America. It looks like similar errors in worldwide, so probably something wrong with their counts.
I'm extremely disappointed that they deceptively compared today's Autopilot to 2003-2013 Teslas for the last 5 years, claiming it showed how Autopilot is so safe. That's blatantly misleading. They paid an expert to argue this in court in Huang v. Tesla, without giving them full info. Outrageous.
November 14, 2025 at 11:21 PM
I'm extremely disappointed that they deceptively compared today's Autopilot to 2003-2013 Teslas for the last 5 years, claiming it showed how Autopilot is so safe. That's blatantly misleading. They paid an expert to argue this in court in Huang v. Tesla, without giving them full info. Outrageous.
I generally ignore the comparisons to US crash data because they were extremely apples-to-oranges in the past but they are worth reexamining with these new data. These are big claims.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
I generally ignore the comparisons to US crash data because they were extremely apples-to-oranges in the past but they are worth reexamining with these new data. These are big claims.
The safety metrics are for the prior 12 months, and will be updated quarterly, rolling 12-months. Since we have raw miles and crash counts, we can finally do some significance testing, so that's cool. The internet archive will be helpful.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
The safety metrics are for the prior 12 months, and will be updated quarterly, rolling 12-months. Since we have raw miles and crash counts, we can finally do some significance testing, so that's cool. The internet archive will be helpful.
One curious thing: they report crash rates by either North America or Worldwide. (FSD is almost exclusively used in NA.) But they compare to general US crash rates. Canada's crash rate is roughly 40% lower than the U.S.'s. So we really should be looking at US FSD on its own.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
One curious thing: they report crash rates by either North America or Worldwide. (FSD is almost exclusively used in NA.) But they compare to general US crash rates. Canada's crash rate is roughly 40% lower than the U.S.'s. So we really should be looking at US FSD on its own.
And non-highway.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
And non-highway.
Just seeing that the data is also broken down by highway and non-highway. Not really clear how they define "highway" but their definition is below. Here's highway data.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Just seeing that the data is also broken down by highway and non-highway. Not really clear how they define "highway" but their definition is below. Here's highway data.
For the last 5 years, Tesla compared Autopilot to a Tesla without any active safety features, which always confused me because who turns off automatic emergency braking? But now we know it was pre-2014 Teslas. Tesla got away with this for years, and really needs to be held accountable.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
For the last 5 years, Tesla compared Autopilot to a Tesla without any active safety features, which always confused me because who turns off automatic emergency braking? But now we know it was pre-2014 Teslas. Tesla got away with this for years, and really needs to be held accountable.
For minor crashes, we finally have a clear delta-v definition of "Delta-V ≥ 8 km/h within 150 milliseconds." This differs slightly from (Delta-V ≥ 8 km/h within 150 milliseconds. Weirdly, it is NOT consistent with 49 C.F.R. § 563.5 which uses 250ms, but probably not significant.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
For minor crashes, we finally have a clear delta-v definition of "Delta-V ≥ 8 km/h within 150 milliseconds." This differs slightly from (Delta-V ≥ 8 km/h within 150 milliseconds. Weirdly, it is NOT consistent with 49 C.F.R. § 563.5 which uses 250ms, but probably not significant.
We finally have a clearer crash definition, with 2 thresholds. The "major" one is airbags (like we thought) plus pyrotechnics which is probably seat-belt pretensioners, maybe others things as well. I'll leave that to vehicle experts.
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
We finally have a clearer crash definition, with 2 thresholds. The "major" one is airbags (like we thought) plus pyrotechnics which is probably seat-belt pretensioners, maybe others things as well. I'll leave that to vehicle experts.
Tesla now publishing crash counts and mileage. Better yet, they have re-introduced "without FSD/AP, with active safety features" which has been, as far as I could tell, simply deleted entirely since Q2 2021. Mini thread on first impressions. www.tesla.com/fsd/safety
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Tesla now publishing crash counts and mileage. Better yet, they have re-introduced "without FSD/AP, with active safety features" which has been, as far as I could tell, simply deleted entirely since Q2 2021. Mini thread on first impressions. www.tesla.com/fsd/safety
Let's try again.
November 12, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Let's try again.
I gave public comment at 1:26:50. I encourage anyone to participate. You get 3 minutes, and since the Board members legally can't gamble, this is the only way their learn how predatory some of the "games" can be. Here's my one page handout.
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
I gave public comment at 1:26:50. I encourage anyone to participate. You get 3 minutes, and since the Board members legally can't gamble, this is the only way their learn how predatory some of the "games" can be. Here's my one page handout.
They also previewed a new PSA to discourage parents from giving Lotto tickets to minors for Christmas. Of course, this was necessary because they have for YEARS run ads promoting gambling as Christmas gifts. The PSAs don't even say why it's wrong (it's illegal). youtu.be/TRzDPncr0rE?...
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
They also previewed a new PSA to discourage parents from giving Lotto tickets to minors for Christmas. Of course, this was necessary because they have for YEARS run ads promoting gambling as Christmas gifts. The PSAs don't even say why it's wrong (it's illegal). youtu.be/TRzDPncr0rE?...
Market share by sportsbook. Fanduel and Draftkings dominate.
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Market share by sportsbook. Fanduel and Draftkings dominate.
The Virginia Lottery likes to use inspirational quotes in their slide decks. The first, from is from their actual presentation. The second is different, related Maya Angelou quote.
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The Virginia Lottery likes to use inspirational quotes in their slide decks. The first, from is from their actual presentation. The second is different, related Maya Angelou quote.
There was one bullet about CFTC regulation of prediction markets, but a pretty healthy discussion among board members! Lottery staff seems to be "wait and see" but with even Truth Social getting into it, and I think the time for action is now. Virginia gets $80mm in sports betting tax revenue.
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
There was one bullet about CFTC regulation of prediction markets, but a pretty healthy discussion among board members! Lottery staff seems to be "wait and see" but with even Truth Social getting into it, and I think the time for action is now. Virginia gets $80mm in sports betting tax revenue.
Impressively, they highlighted the increased use of gambling influencers, and even showed a few TikToks. They mentioned anti-gambling influencer accounts, but created kind of a false equivalency. (Pro-gambling accounts are industry-funded and far more prevelant.)
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Impressively, they highlighted the increased use of gambling influencers, and even showed a few TikToks. They mentioned anti-gambling influencer accounts, but created kind of a false equivalency. (Pro-gambling accounts are industry-funded and far more prevelant.)
For a year now, they've said that they want to use AI to identify problem gambling behavior, with no action. As I told them in the public comment section, you don't need AI to do that -- you need a spreadsheet. Industry has identified problem gambling behavior (and encouraged it) for over 50 years.
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
For a year now, they've said that they want to use AI to identify problem gambling behavior, with no action. As I told them in the public comment section, you don't need AI to do that -- you need a spreadsheet. Industry has identified problem gambling behavior (and encouraged it) for over 50 years.
The talked a lot about "Jackpot Fatigue" where big Powerball jackpots don't drive sales like it used to. As usual, they misdiagnose the problem, as it's almost certainly competition from the 8 billion other ways to gamble. (Line color is jackpot size in 100Ms, y-axis is estimated sales.)
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The talked a lot about "Jackpot Fatigue" where big Powerball jackpots don't drive sales like it used to. As usual, they misdiagnose the problem, as it's almost certainly competition from the 8 billion other ways to gamble. (Line color is jackpot size in 100Ms, y-axis is estimated sales.)
They currently have machines in 5,3000 grocery and convenience stores. They want to add 1,000 in "social establishments" in five years. The mention quick service restaurants specifically, and some tentative discussions with Chick-Fil-A and Tropical Smoothie.
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
They currently have machines in 5,3000 grocery and convenience stores. They want to add 1,000 in "social establishments" in five years. The mention quick service restaurants specifically, and some tentative discussions with Chick-Fil-A and Tropical Smoothie.
iLottery, the multi-line slot machine smartphone app, continues to grow, up 28% over Q1 last year.
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
iLottery, the multi-line slot machine smartphone app, continues to grow, up 28% over Q1 last year.
Virginia's iLottery state-run casino app sales up 28% over Q1 last year. They still have not found the top with this thing.
October 30, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Virginia's iLottery state-run casino app sales up 28% over Q1 last year. They still have not found the top with this thing.
Revealing Nunes quote about "control" of prediction markets. Clearly he thinks that Truth Social's markets will be more accurate, and therefore any Republican ahead in the markets but losing the election is a victim of voter fraud. Nice.
October 29, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Revealing Nunes quote about "control" of prediction markets. Clearly he thinks that Truth Social's markets will be more accurate, and therefore any Republican ahead in the markets but losing the election is a victim of voter fraud. Nice.
Truth Social has announced that they are entering prediction markets, powered by crypto dot com.
Prediction markets are sportsbooks in disguise, as political events are few and far between. Gee, which button is the biggest?
(h/t @matt-levine.bsky.social)
www.reuters.com/business/med...
Prediction markets are sportsbooks in disguise, as political events are few and far between. Gee, which button is the biggest?
(h/t @matt-levine.bsky.social)
www.reuters.com/business/med...
October 28, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Truth Social has announced that they are entering prediction markets, powered by crypto dot com.
Prediction markets are sportsbooks in disguise, as political events are few and far between. Gee, which button is the biggest?
(h/t @matt-levine.bsky.social)
www.reuters.com/business/med...
Prediction markets are sportsbooks in disguise, as political events are few and far between. Gee, which button is the biggest?
(h/t @matt-levine.bsky.social)
www.reuters.com/business/med...