Nick Davies
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njdavies.bsky.social
Nick Davies
@njdavies.bsky.social
8.8K followers 810 following 620 posts
Programme Director at @instituteforgovernment.org.uk working on public services
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njdavies.bsky.social
Amazing work by Amber!

This is part of @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's Public Services Performance Tracker 2025. We've published chapters on local govt, criminal justice + schools. NHS + cross-service analysis chapters will be out in next 2 weeks
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Schools: key findings • The equivalent of 23,000 primary school classrooms are empty across England, the highest number since records began back in 2009–10 • Meanwhile, two-thirds of state special schools are now operating over capacity • The average education, health and care plan cost £1,000 more than the funding it attracted in 2023/24 • Pupils with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) now miss a full day of secondary school every week, on average. • In 2023–24, there were an average of five suspensions in every secondary school class, more than double the highest rate seen before the pandemic.
November 6, 2025 at 10:19 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Worth noting that in Nov 24 the govt wrote to South Cambridgeshire to say that voters were best placed to decide on council effectiveness and that Labour would bring an “end to micromanaging”

I’d like to see the full text of this latest letter to see what has changed
October 29, 2025 at 8:47 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
The justice minister is right to be 'absolutely terrified' of prisons running out of space. As @cassiarowland.bsky.social's report showed last week, prison capacity will be on a knife edge for the next two years unless the govt takes further action to free up space
October 27, 2025 at 9:37 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
I’m extremely taken with Jack’s suggestion of a Hamiltonian rap battle about the Public Services Performance Tracker.

There’s a worryingly high chance that I attempt to rap in the Monday morning team meeting…
October 24, 2025 at 7:07 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Labour inherited public services in crisis. How successfully have they addressed these problems since the election? Join @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social, @cassiarowland.bsky.social, @amberdellar.bsky.social & @stephenkb.bsky.social on 19/11 to find out
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...
October 22, 2025 at 11:02 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Tell me you haven’t read Performance Tracker* without telling me you haven’t read Performance Tracker

*or literally any serious writing on local government finances
October 6, 2025 at 6:57 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Money is going to be tight for the rest of this parliament. Govt should use procurement more strategically to deliver its missions. That will require:
✅Using missions to shape markets
✅Bringing innovation to public sector procurement
✅Strengthening procurement capability and data
September 25, 2025 at 8:13 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Georgia Gould to DfE and Jim McMahon out of govt. Worrying news for the place-based public services agenda
September 6, 2025 at 4:44 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
[Organisers of Labour conference events watching Starmer conduct another major reshuffle in early September]:
Sad Pablo Escobar meme
September 5, 2025 at 4:01 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
The govt's commitment to adult social care reform procrastination is truly impressive. First it commissioned Louise Casey to publish a review in 2028, then it decided she should first review grooming gangs, and now it is considering appointing her to a full time role in No.10
August 28, 2025 at 11:10 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Great new report from @transformjustice.bsky.social that digs into the problems with the Single Justice Procedure. It’s a woefully underscrutinised topic given SJP is now responsible for the majority criminal prosecutions

www.transformjustice.org.uk/publication/...
July 21, 2025 at 5:02 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
There was a 2nd really positive announcement regarding Total Place in the 10 Year Health Plan
- Increased autonomy ✅
- Pooling budgets ✅
- Shifting spending towards prevention ✅

Hopefully the 1st step of a wider public service shift to prevention:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Text from the 10 year Health Plan which reads: "Where devolution and a focus on population health outcomes are most advanced, we will work with strategic authorities as prevention demonstrators, starting with the Mayor of Greater Manchester, whose thinking in this area is most advanced. These will be a partnership between the NHS, single or upper tier authorities and strategic authorities to trial new innovative approaches to prevention – supported by mayoral ‘total place’ powers, and advances in genomics and data. We will support these areas with increased autonomy, including supporting areas through exploring opportunities to pool budgets and reprofile public service spending towards prevention."
July 3, 2025 at 3:49 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
I really like the sound of the Total Place-style pooled budget pilots that Angela Rayner announced today. Little detail provided so far but potentially huge. This is how @instituteforgovernment.org.uk think Total Place pilots should work:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Picture of Rayner's speech, which says: "And with more flexible funding, we’re giving you the opportunity to work more collaboratively including through new pilots so councils and mayors can pool budgets and do joined-up services, learning the lessons of projects like Total Place – the last Labour government’s pioneering reform programme."
July 3, 2025 at 12:10 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Fascinating report on what victims of crime actually want. It's surprising how few list having their 'day in court' as a priority. They're much more interested in making sure it doesn't happen again and ensuring the crime is resolved quickly - both areas where the CJS is currently performing badly
June 26, 2025 at 1:56 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
On 8 July I'll be chairing the latest edition of the Productivity Pitches series.

This time will be highlighting some outstanding examples of innovation in welfare policy. Sign up here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/produc...

@instituteforgovernment.org.uk @productivity.bsky.social
June 26, 2025 at 1:24 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Really enjoyed @duncanweldon.bsky.social’s new book. Even if you’re not interested in warfare or economics, it’s a fascinating (and surprisingly jaunty) analysis of how changing institutions and incentives have shaped political decisions through history and helped create the modern state
June 19, 2025 at 4:29 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
This is the first time I can remember that the tone of my quote has matched my beaming/smug photo
Quote reading: “The government’s new framework for public service reform – focussing on integration, prevention and devolution – is spot on. Combined with higher capital investment, this has the potential to be transformational over the long-term. In the short-term, promising new initiatives will need to be scaled up quickly to deliver meaningful benefits by the end of this parliament.”
June 11, 2025 at 1:56 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
On the other hand, the new community help partnerships are very promising. A small number of high intensity users account for a substantial proportion of public service spending. Providing more integrated, earlier support would lead to far better outcomes and meaningful efficiencies
June 11, 2025 at 1:42 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
SR sets out 3 principles for public service reform:
- integrate services
- focus on prevention
- devolve power to local areas

That is spot on and, added to growth in CDEL, almost identical to what @instituteforgovernment.org.uk recommended last July
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
June 11, 2025 at 12:56 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Some of the efficiency plans are quite ambitious. e.g. DHSC expects to make 1.5% effieciency savings every year, compared to 0.6% per year productivity growth 95/96 to 18/19. The plans also have a lot of gaps. e.g. how exactly will they reduce sickness absence rates and improve retention?
June 11, 2025 at 12:33 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Table showing the efficiency savings that departments are expecting to make. Helpfully, govt has also published a 2 pager on how each dept will make these savings. A positive development
June 11, 2025 at 12:25 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Nodding my head furiously to this from @stephenkb.bsky.social. I'd add that it doesn't work in delivery terms either. The state will respond to political direction but is unlikely to do so in an effective way if ministers are pointing in 20 different directions
Part of the government of the day’s job is to pick a trade-off and argue for it. The alternative that we are currently living through — where the government doesn’t really pick a position — is never going to work politically, because you can’t convince anyone of something if you won’t argue for it. It doesn’t work in policy terms because it results in a kind of half-in, half-out position, where the government is against taxes while raising them, deplores austerity while delivering it, and argues for rearmament while deferring it to an undefined date
June 3, 2025 at 12:36 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Really enjoyed speaking at my first Stronger Things conference. Great speeches and conversations (plus incredible thank you merch!)
June 3, 2025 at 11:53 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
It’s great to now have this evidence. It also shows why ministerial/HMT demands for more evidence before approving spending can be misguided. As @instituteforgovernment.org.uk previously argued it takes at least 5yrs to gather evidence for big preventive programmes. Ministers need to show leadership
May 22, 2025 at 6:55 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
This is spot on from @stephenkb.bsky.social. Since 2015 public services have been in a cycle of crisis-cash-repeat. This is bad for performance and a waste of money as services can't efficiently spend lumpy, unpredictable budgets. It'd be far better to set deliverable budgets in the first place!
May 21, 2025 at 11:02 AM