The VIX is misunderstood.

It forecasts the degree of S&P 500 price changes, not directionality.

When it spiked after Trump's tariff announcement, it signaled big gains or losses are likely to follow, and big gains are what we got.

@opinion.bloomberg.com.

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The measure of a professional stock picker used to be whether they can beat the market.

Now they must also beat indexes that mimic their style of stock picking and are probably tracked by a low-cost ETF.

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The best protection in a bumpy market is to know your drawdown tolerance: How much pain can you stomach?

Diversified portfolios can dip lower than people expect before they recover.

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Markets are signaling a slowdown and possible recession, not a crisis.

If they're right, history suggests that the worst of the stock market selloff may already be behind us.

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The recent US stock market correction was more about Big Tech's future than trade policy.

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Wowsers, this US growth stock reversal is moving fast.

Here's forward P/E for Russell 1000 Growth/Value back to 1995.

Was 2 SD high less than a month ago. Now nearing average.

Spending cuts, or even the threat of them, could slow the economy and force the Fed to lower rates as Trump wants.

Fiscal stimulus has supported monetary tightening since the pandemic. Now it may be the other way around.

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

While everyone is watching the Mag 7, S&P and Moody's are building businesses that are just as sturdy and profitable as most of the tech giants.

And they're doing it with a major lift from the Mag 7.

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com: Don't look to S&P500 for the impact of tariffs.

It's dominated by companies that aren't in the path of tariffs or have the pricing power to pass on higher costs to consumers.

An unfazed S&P500 doesn't mean tariffs aren't biting.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Stock investors should pay more attention to earnings yields and less to interest rates.

My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

My ode to buybacks @opinion.bloomberg.com.

Stock investing would be poorer without them.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

If higher inflation follows deficits or tariffs, companies shouldn't assume consumers will pick up the tab, as McDonald's has discovered.

My latest @opinion.bsky.social.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Berkshire Hathaway's cash allocation is a window into what Warren Buffett thinks about future US stock returns.

And the current allocation suggests he's bracing for a slowdown.

My latest @opinion.bsky.social.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...