*edit: the government's own estimate is 7,000 fewer visas granted (for care worker & senior care workers) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6821b4...

See our deputy director @natashacurry.bsky.social's @nuffieldtrust.bsky.social response here: www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/nu...

Over the coming months, will we see the taps turned on again for social care, with new visa routes created as in the past? Much depends on whether the government will adopt the sector-led workforce strategy, invest in it, & whether the Home Office & DHSC can work effectively together

But – as the MAC have said - there will need to be investment to enable improved pay, increased training and skills development, & better terms and conditions. The Employment Rights Bill is a key milestone but employers are facing a void between now and the sector Fair Pay Agreement materialising ⌛

It's also good to see the govt’s requirement for a workforce strategy. Fortunately in social care, the @skillsforcare.bsky.social -led workforce strategy and ongoing work to implement this, means social care has already hit the ground running www.skillsforcare.org.uk/Workforce-St...

The government is right to crack down on noncompliant social care employers, prioritise efforts on domestic workers, and rectify the situation for thousands of care workers stranded without work – allowing them to extend or switch visas until the new ‘transition period’ ends in 2028

Recent measures (increased oversight & a ban on care worker dependents) have caused the number of Health & Care Visa applicants to drop significantly, from 18,300 in Aug 2023 to 1,700 in March 2025 (the lowest number of monthly applicants to the scheme since the data started being published) 📉

If one of the government’s core aims is to bring down net migration, it's difficult to estimate how this reform will impact overall immigration figures due to changes in the way the Home Office report social care job occupation data, and given recent restrictions already applied to social care:

In the following years, the vacancy rate fell to 8.3% in 2022/23, from 11% in 2021/22, with international recruitment being the main driver behind the fall in vacancies

The sector was in the same spot 5 years ago (pre-points based system). With no route to bring in overseas care staff, & no increase to pay, roles were subsequently added into the SOL & Health & Care visa, giving the sector an escape valve

The decision today to close off international recruitment for social care is risky: there are 131,000 vacancies and the well-known challenges to recruiting at home haven’t yet been fully addressed. But similar decisions were made before…

Government's decision to close the visa route for overseas care staff is a continuation of the tap-on, tap-off approach used for years. Nobody – people, carers, workers, employers - is well served when social care is caught in the political crossfire of the immigration debate