Niko Jaakkola
@nikoecon.bsky.social
Associate Prof, Uni Bologna, Economics of climate & natural resources. Tweeting also as citizen, 🇫🇮/🇪🇺 and as resident 🇮🇹. Views are mine, most likely borrowed from somewhere.
Suomeksi @nikoekon.bsky.social
https://sites.google.com/view/jaakkola
Suomeksi @nikoekon.bsky.social
https://sites.google.com/view/jaakkola
Sole authority to launch US nuclear weapons held by person whose policy statements on nuclear weapons are, um, very unclear to the top officials supposed to execute them.
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
November 8, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Sole authority to launch US nuclear weapons held by person whose policy statements on nuclear weapons are, um, very unclear to the top officials supposed to execute them.
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
Many things to highlight but let me go with this. Ukraine's financing needs are actually not that much as a share of EU/NATO GDP (even assuming US is not participating). And the costs of deterrence failing are potentially VERY high. It's a no-brainer.
October 31, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Many things to highlight but let me go with this. Ukraine's financing needs are actually not that much as a share of EU/NATO GDP (even assuming US is not participating). And the costs of deterrence failing are potentially VERY high. It's a no-brainer.
Ukraine: Government tries to neuter anti-corruption agency. Result: biggest protests since full-scale Russian invasion.
US: As close to an open-and-shut case of corruption by a public servant as you can get. Result: crickets.
US: As close to an open-and-shut case of corruption by a public servant as you can get. Result: crickets.
September 21, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Ukraine: Government tries to neuter anti-corruption agency. Result: biggest protests since full-scale Russian invasion.
US: As close to an open-and-shut case of corruption by a public servant as you can get. Result: crickets.
US: As close to an open-and-shut case of corruption by a public servant as you can get. Result: crickets.
Stephen Miran is now on the Fed board of governors. See if you can spot his vote on what should be done to interest rates.
Ironic, given how Trump was elected partly bc of voter dissatisfaction with inflation.
(h/t @robarmstrong.bsky.social)
Ironic, given how Trump was elected partly bc of voter dissatisfaction with inflation.
(h/t @robarmstrong.bsky.social)
September 19, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Stephen Miran is now on the Fed board of governors. See if you can spot his vote on what should be done to interest rates.
Ironic, given how Trump was elected partly bc of voter dissatisfaction with inflation.
(h/t @robarmstrong.bsky.social)
Ironic, given how Trump was elected partly bc of voter dissatisfaction with inflation.
(h/t @robarmstrong.bsky.social)
🇪🇺 Trying to instill a bit of euro-patriotism in my students. Happy Europe Day! 🇪🇺
May 9, 2025 at 9:58 AM
🇪🇺 Trying to instill a bit of euro-patriotism in my students. Happy Europe Day! 🇪🇺
Nice by the FT to group these headlines together. We are living in a pretty remarkable moment.
April 11, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Nice by the FT to group these headlines together. We are living in a pretty remarkable moment.
I could see the ships full of sneakers coming from Vietnam making a strategic stop in the Philippines...
April 8, 2025 at 7:49 PM
I could see the ships full of sneakers coming from Vietnam making a strategic stop in the Philippines...
And of course Northern countries know full well how to free-ride. See below for an example of Poland insisting no sharing of the refugee burden in 2015.
We need to stop this right now, the situation is too critical for it.
We need to stop this right now, the situation is too critical for it.
April 7, 2025 at 8:08 AM
And of course Northern countries know full well how to free-ride. See below for an example of Poland insisting no sharing of the refugee burden in 2015.
We need to stop this right now, the situation is too critical for it.
We need to stop this right now, the situation is too critical for it.
Strong words from @mijrahman.bsky.social. Europe is facing an existential moment and decisionmaking, already difficult because of the EU lacking an obvious leader with authority, must not be compromised further by Orban. Hungary must choose. www.ft.com/content/136b...
March 30, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Strong words from @mijrahman.bsky.social. Europe is facing an existential moment and decisionmaking, already difficult because of the EU lacking an obvious leader with authority, must not be compromised further by Orban. Hungary must choose. www.ft.com/content/136b...
But with Europe aging very rapidly, I find it hard to see how we can pull this off without e.g. increasing the pension age. We are living longer, have been having fewer kids and are averse to immigration; will be difficult to shoulder the burden of an additional 2+% of GDP in public spending.
March 21, 2025 at 9:14 AM
But with Europe aging very rapidly, I find it hard to see how we can pull this off without e.g. increasing the pension age. We are living longer, have been having fewer kids and are averse to immigration; will be difficult to shoulder the burden of an additional 2+% of GDP in public spending.
This is simply unsustainable. I'm willing to let France off the hook, as they at least provide a nuclear deterrent. But Italy and Spain need to step up & chip in on common military security for all Europeans.
March 18, 2025 at 6:18 AM
This is simply unsustainable. I'm willing to let France off the hook, as they at least provide a nuclear deterrent. But Italy and Spain need to step up & chip in on common military security for all Europeans.
Or look at Russia and Ukraine. @sarotte.bsky.social reports in her wonderful book 'Not One Inch' on James Baker's prescient response to a Gorbachev advisor regarding the prospect of a war between Russia and independent Ukraine in 1991. The seemingly unthinkable can be quite normal indeed. 12/n
March 13, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Or look at Russia and Ukraine. @sarotte.bsky.social reports in her wonderful book 'Not One Inch' on James Baker's prescient response to a Gorbachev advisor regarding the prospect of a war between Russia and independent Ukraine in 1991. The seemingly unthinkable can be quite normal indeed. 12/n
Yes, during the Cold War, Europeans spent a substantial amount of their GDP on defence. But the US spent even more, and as the 'big brother' was able to keep the European states in line. After Trump 2, the US clearly will no longer play that role. Now it will be competition among equals. 10/n
March 13, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Yes, during the Cold War, Europeans spent a substantial amount of their GDP on defence. But the US spent even more, and as the 'big brother' was able to keep the European states in line. After Trump 2, the US clearly will no longer play that role. Now it will be competition among equals. 10/n
A thread on Europe and on defence of the EU, in which I will drop the F-bomb.
TL;DR: European defence implies the need for more federalisation, because without deeper political union a militarised Europe is a great threat to itself (and maybe to the world). 1/15
(Pic: Håkan Dahlström/Wikipedia)
TL;DR: European defence implies the need for more federalisation, because without deeper political union a militarised Europe is a great threat to itself (and maybe to the world). 1/15
(Pic: Håkan Dahlström/Wikipedia)
March 13, 2025 at 8:40 PM
A thread on Europe and on defence of the EU, in which I will drop the F-bomb.
TL;DR: European defence implies the need for more federalisation, because without deeper political union a militarised Europe is a great threat to itself (and maybe to the world). 1/15
(Pic: Håkan Dahlström/Wikipedia)
TL;DR: European defence implies the need for more federalisation, because without deeper political union a militarised Europe is a great threat to itself (and maybe to the world). 1/15
(Pic: Håkan Dahlström/Wikipedia)
I guess it's easy to balk at eurobonds on the balmy Atlantic coast. But if European deterrence fails, life will become less comfortable in the Netherlands also. This kind of behaviour -- unwillingness to fund a public good, even jointly -- is beyond irresponsible.
March 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
I guess it's easy to balk at eurobonds on the balmy Atlantic coast. But if European deterrence fails, life will become less comfortable in the Netherlands also. This kind of behaviour -- unwillingness to fund a public good, even jointly -- is beyond irresponsible.
Excellent by @nktpnd.bsky.social, Vipin Narang & @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social. Indeed, destabilising non-proliferation norms will hurt the US (and the world) massively. But credibility is difficult to restore once lost & w/ Trump being elected not once but twice, who would dare rely on US guarantees?
March 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Excellent by @nktpnd.bsky.social, Vipin Narang & @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social. Indeed, destabilising non-proliferation norms will hurt the US (and the world) massively. But credibility is difficult to restore once lost & w/ Trump being elected not once but twice, who would dare rely on US guarantees?
Trump's abrupt abrogation of NATO treaty gives Putin a window of time (before European defence is scaled up) in which to force European NATO allies to decide on Article 5 (& fail, he hopes). Below quote from @dmitri.silverado.org is apt if you read Putin, Europe and Baltics for Xi, US and Taiwan.
March 8, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Trump's abrupt abrogation of NATO treaty gives Putin a window of time (before European defence is scaled up) in which to force European NATO allies to decide on Article 5 (& fail, he hopes). Below quote from @dmitri.silverado.org is apt if you read Putin, Europe and Baltics for Xi, US and Taiwan.
Second, government spending is required. Financial magic won't do it -- and will be counterproductive, as it sends a signal of weakness. For if we are not willing to raise taxes to defend the Baltics, would the Kremlin think we would send our young men to do so?
March 7, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Second, government spending is required. Financial magic won't do it -- and will be counterproductive, as it sends a signal of weakness. For if we are not willing to raise taxes to defend the Baltics, would the Kremlin think we would send our young men to do so?
First, joint funding can force better coordination of procurement planning, and I would guess also military planning (not my wheelhouse, but e.g. @maxbergmann.bsky.social has argued Europe needs to step up fast on that front also).
March 7, 2025 at 7:35 AM
First, joint funding can force better coordination of procurement planning, and I would guess also military planning (not my wheelhouse, but e.g. @maxbergmann.bsky.social has argued Europe needs to step up fast on that front also).
This is good. But the standout para is here. Trump and Vance are all about performative masculinity. They are nothing next to Zelensky, by the measure they profess.
March 3, 2025 at 2:22 PM
This is good. But the standout para is here. Trump and Vance are all about performative masculinity. They are nothing next to Zelensky, by the measure they profess.
Many dumb views in this piece. But we need joint debt to fund European security -- a European public good! That money would go to joint projects (missile defence, intelligence capabilities, Ukraine) OR to countries bordering Russia. Italy, Spain would get money for contributing to common security.
March 3, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Many dumb views in this piece. But we need joint debt to fund European security -- a European public good! That money would go to joint projects (missile defence, intelligence capabilities, Ukraine) OR to countries bordering Russia. Italy, Spain would get money for contributing to common security.
...and this is why we need joint European funding for supporting Ukraine and building up European defence: to prevent free-riding by Germany, Spain, Italy and other neighbours not at the Russian border.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
March 3, 2025 at 7:30 AM
...and this is why we need joint European funding for supporting Ukraine and building up European defence: to prevent free-riding by Germany, Spain, Italy and other neighbours not at the Russian border.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...