In this piece, we’ll build a framework for evaluating preferreds in the Bitcoin Age. We’ll cover the capital stack, spreads, and comparables. If the foundation has shifted, investors need new tools. Consider this letter an exploration of how these credit instruments are evolving.

Asset prices continue to charge ahead with momentum. Conditions for this rally are apparent to many, citing “the debasement trade” as a catch-all for what is unfolding. And while debasement is an excellent conclusion, another cohort of investors remains worried about an AI bubble.

This letter is about putting bitcoin in perspective compared to what’s been happening with gold lately, and trying to figure out what that signal could mean.

Think about bitcoins path to getting marked on the global balance sheet

Depending on who you ask today, bitcoin is either in the early stages of a new bull market, or already on its way into a bear market. Both sides are looking at the same asset, the same chart, the same macro landscape yet arriving at very different conclusions.

Starting 2026 with Bitcoin monthly candles

Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since October 10, 2025. This downtrend moved the price of bitcoin from the Bullish zone into the Bearish zone. The big question is whether this downtrend continues, or if price is forming a bottom and the trend pivots back up.

Dear Readers,
One of our New Year’s resolutions is to hit your inboxes with more research on our Liquidity models. To inaugurate such a resolution

The cracks in the foundations of money are becoming harder to ignore. Persistent deficits, rising debt, and central bank behavior are quietly reshaping how investors think about preservation and risk.

One has to wonder if Trump and Bessent are actively trying to box out the Supreme Court from ruling against tariffs by demonstrating that the core of the issue is the multi-decade US-China Cold War rather than an isolated economic move or loophole around the legislative branch