@nidhishks.bsky.social
completely agree but am pretty dumfounded that we are rallying on headlines of 15% tariff rates
July 23, 2025 at 4:32 PM
completely agree but am pretty dumfounded that we are rallying on headlines of 15% tariff rates
Have you had a look at the data recently? Looks like withdrawals have levelled off significantly since mid-March but want to double check
April 18, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Have you had a look at the data recently? Looks like withdrawals have levelled off significantly since mid-March but want to double check
Inflation expectations are the kicker’s ‘tell’ which will dictate which way they end up diving
April 10, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Inflation expectations are the kicker’s ‘tell’ which will dictate which way they end up diving
Do you think all three of the UK lockdowns meet this criteria? The first two do for me, the length of the third was difficult to justify at the time (even more so in hindsight)
March 12, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Do you think all three of the UK lockdowns meet this criteria? The first two do for me, the length of the third was difficult to justify at the time (even more so in hindsight)
thanks for the idea! was looking into the categories themselves, seems like DoE spending is trending lower so far this year but spending on federal salaries still outpacing 2024 - so the layoffs don't look to have taken effect as of yet
March 5, 2025 at 7:14 PM
thanks for the idea! was looking into the categories themselves, seems like DoE spending is trending lower so far this year but spending on federal salaries still outpacing 2024 - so the layoffs don't look to have taken effect as of yet
Does not get the height differential right at all
December 16, 2024 at 4:14 PM
Does not get the height differential right at all
looked a red to me, thought he was v. lucky
December 4, 2024 at 8:22 PM
looked a red to me, thought he was v. lucky
Don't know the specific paper he's referring to here but the original "expansionary austerity" paper was by Alesina if I remember correctly?
December 4, 2024 at 7:14 PM
Don't know the specific paper he's referring to here but the original "expansionary austerity" paper was by Alesina if I remember correctly?
They do keep talking about how restrictive rates are though - if they do continue to project lower inflation, 2 cuts seems a bit on the low side. But we'll see I guess!
December 3, 2024 at 12:08 AM
They do keep talking about how restrictive rates are though - if they do continue to project lower inflation, 2 cuts seems a bit on the low side. But we'll see I guess!
Just 2?! Are you pessimistic about Q1 inflation data or think they are going to move their neutral rate estimates higher? Or both haha
December 2, 2024 at 10:05 PM
Just 2?! Are you pessimistic about Q1 inflation data or think they are going to move their neutral rate estimates higher? Or both haha
I heard this as well in another interview and wanted to tag Jason Furman after their legendary exchange haha
November 27, 2024 at 7:05 PM
I heard this as well in another interview and wanted to tag Jason Furman after their legendary exchange haha
do you think this thinking applies to Real GDP as well?
November 18, 2024 at 2:31 AM
do you think this thinking applies to Real GDP as well?
enjoy the food and bar scene as much as you can
November 7, 2024 at 12:44 AM
enjoy the food and bar scene as much as you can