However, we assume that few metals will be critical over the very long term as techno-economic and ESG challenges can be overcome and/or metal demand will be structurally adjusted by substitution.

We outline five scenarios: (i) business as usual; (ii) clays onstream; (iii) everything plus recycling; (iv) shift away from lithium; (v) black swan event, of which only two lead to a longer-term criticality reduction