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Etsy: t.co/Ld0GLlZ8Xu

Their thinking might be that they want to give tons of games away in order to help erase the library lock in impact that Steam has. I agree it isn't working, but EPIC also isn't selling hw to make up for lost revs on their platform cut.

This is the argument for it but while Ball's analysis is great generally, I don't think this is at all viable:

Let's recall what Jim Ryan said back in 2022:

If you think this reflects good management and organically successful management at PSX idk what to say:

So are they *actually* reaching new consumers this gen? All indicators seem to be very clearly saying no. And in that case the market share metric is useless. PS5 will sell a good bit less than PS4 did too (not just me saying ~100mil is their ceiling now, here's Ampere's analysis):

Similarly for PS+ subs, which also slammed into a ceiling in late 2020. And as I noted, actual sw sales are way down too (-12% in rev, ~25-30%-ish in units).

Here is the analysis in question btw, for reference:

Here is the PSX platform MAU (PS4+PS5 once it launched) going back a ways. Note that this past quarter it stayed at 116mil. So in 4 yrs, their MAU grew by +2mil ppl, despite shipping 65mil PS5's.

The traditional model (subsidization of hw, make it up on backend sw/sub rev) no longer functions. More console sales doesn't directly equate to more active users. Hasn't for a while now. You can't sell sw/subs to a console, you need an active user.

Here's PSX's active users across PS4/PS5.

The model you are citing no longer functions. More console sales no longer leads to more users (PSX MAU is just +2mil above where it was in October 2020 despite 65mil PS5's shipped since then). Nor does it lead to more subs (no improvements there either for PSX since the cycle started either).