In addition to the common economic mistakes we see people make, there are some "non-trivial" economic fallacies I often see out in the wild. One I've noticed is comparing policies based on benefits but not costs (or vice versa).

Another is not reading my posts:

neocentrist.org/p/non-trivia...

Trump believes in an age-old fallacy which conflates nation-states with companies. He thinks that the US should strive to *make money* from geopolitics.

This is idiotic. It is even more idiotic when applied to countries such as Ukraine, which have 5%> of US income.

neocentrist.org/p/a-state-is...

ok so my question is how FRED will add Gaza's economic statistics to its database

what the hell is total factor productivity?

Gerontocracy has its upsides. Old leaders are less likely to attempt coups because they have less to gain. Older dictators also have the upside of *dying*. That often helps with ending the authoritarian regime.

More on this below:

neocentrist.org/p/in-praise-...

If anyone is curious in a more comprehensive overview of what's going on in Georgia and how we got to where we are, you can read the below post. Just wrote it up because there's not much else I am capable of thinking about:

neocentrist.org/p/where-geor...

the police is using water cannons and Georgians are answering it with firework machine guns

christmas came early this year 🎆

Georgia is in the middle of one of its largest protests ever since the Gov decided to put EU accession on hold.

Somewhat ashamed that I'm not there with my friends right now.

Apparently Thanksgiving break meant that I had way too much time on my hands, so I decided to write up a post explaining the macro model I use in my head.

Highlights:

(1) What is the "neutral" rate?
(2) How do you set rates to achieve your goals?
(3) What about fiscal policy?

Read below:

Adam Smith created economics.

Marshall gave us mathematical economics.

Keynes gave us macroeconomics.

Friedman gave us a version of macroeconomics that didn't suck.

But they are all eclipsed by GW Smith, who showed that Japan's Phillips Curve looks like Japan.

There are two people in this picture. One of them understands economics, the other is Paul Krugman.

democratic peace theory is to international relations what the phillips curve is to macroeconomics

In addition to finally writing my first Bsky post, I've decided to resurrect my Substack.

The below details how I think the War in Ukraine could finally end. My argument is that ending the war is *hard* and that there is currently no realistic deal to be made.

neocentrist.org/p/how-the-wa...