Neil Weinberg
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neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Neil Weinberg
@neilweinberg44.bsky.social
1.3K followers 91 following 400 posts
Mostly, public policy research and analysis. Previously, semi-professional baseball stats explainer and Tigers blogger. Always, friend to dogs.
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neilweinberg44.bsky.social
At the risk of believing in anything, I blogged the six things I see in Zohran. https://open.substack.com/pub/neilweinberg44/p/what-i-see-in-zohran
Zohran is obviously altable and charming, which people like. Being handsome and charismatic is better than the alternative, but what I think Zohran has that is more of an X factor is he is somehow sort of corny while also being cool-coded. He comes across like he's trying really hard. He's not apathetic. But he's also not a buzzkill. He's somehow flashing front of class and back of class kid at the same time. It's important in politics to give everyone a way to see themselves in you. I don't know if you can replicate this, but it's more than a good digital team. He seems both cool and lame in the exact right proportions.
November 5, 2025 at 10:49 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
How can you give $325M to someone who has never thrown an MLB pitch:

Yamamoto:
Jordan: ..and I took that personally
November 2, 2025 at 4:25 AM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Me, making the most basic store-bought toast imaginable:

My wife:
Screenshot: What did you toast It smells amazing lol
October 11, 2025 at 12:29 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Mood
Phil Coke celebration image
October 2, 2025 at 10:02 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Ugly but they did it
September 27, 2025 at 10:46 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Does anyone want to see a d*ad body
Fangraphs al central odds showing tigers at 19 percent
September 25, 2025 at 2:08 AM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
They let the health desk do the story instead of the politics desk so it doesn’t fucking suck https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09/22/us/trump-news?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
LIVE 33m ago Trump Ignores Science by Linking Autism to Vaccines and a Common Painkiller President Trump gave direct and unproven medical advice contradicting decades of research about vaccines and the use of acetaminophen in pregnancy and infancy.
September 23, 2025 at 2:20 AM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Is that bad
Fangraphs al central playoff odds graphing showing tigers collapsing
September 21, 2025 at 1:40 AM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
What the Israeli government is doing purportedly in the name of Jews is deeply at odds with the teachings of Judaism and the future of our people depends on not letting Israel define Judaism. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/20/opinion/antisemitism-american-jews-israel-mamdani.html
I've watched the experience of rising antisemitism polarize young Jews into two camps. Some have moved closer to Israel, convinced that their elders were right and their standing in the West was more tenuous than they had believed. Some have moved into a deeper alienation, horrified at what is being done in their name and angry at the way their safety has felt compromised by the actions and politics of a state in which they do not live.
July 20, 2025 at 1:05 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
I am again asking what the hell is wrong with the editors at the NYT and what trans people ever did to them
OUT OF POWER Democrats Lost Voters on Transgender Rights. Winning Them Back Won't Be Easy. Although there is no evidence that transgender rights was a top issue for most voters in 2024, Democratic strategists believe that these attacks did have an impact. Blueprint, a post-election Democratic polling project, found that among swing voters who broke for Mr. Trump in the final weeks of the campaign, 67 percent believed Democrats were "too focused on identity politics."
July 13, 2025 at 6:10 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
I think we should probably at least wait until they close the concentration camps
OPINION GUEST ESSAY Is It Time to Stop Snubbing Your Right-Wing Family? July 13, 2025, 9:00 a.m. ET
July 13, 2025 at 6:06 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Things have changed a bit here since I was last here, i.e., the Matthew Boyd near no-hitter.
Picture from seats at comerica park
July 7, 2025 at 9:59 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
This is grotesque. The SSA is doing political ads with the official database emails
Social Security Applauds Passage of Legislation Providing Historic Tax Relief for Seniors Inbox Social Sec... 10:26 PM to me v SOCIAL SECURITY Unsubscribe .. Social Security Social Security Applauds Passage of Legislation Providing Historic Tax Relief for Seniors The Social Security Administration
July 4, 2025 at 2:31 AM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Losing my mind so wrote a thing explaining that the purported reasons to include spending cuts in the tax cut bill were completely abandoned during the process but they kept the cuts anyway https://open.substack.com/pub/neilweinberg44/p/republicans-cut-spending-for-no-reason
Congressional Republicans got so high on their own supply that they gutted Medicaid, SNAP, etc. for absolutely no reason. I don't mean that, on balance, those programs are more valuable than tax cuts (although they are), I mean their own actions during this process proved they didn't need to do any cuts at all, and therefore, could have removed stuff that marginal members wanted to with no problem.
July 3, 2025 at 11:54 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
This is as close as you’ll come to seeing a Fancy Lawyer admit that con law is made up. Doesn’t quite say it with his chest but it’s there. https://executivefunctions.substack.com/p/was-the-iran-strike-constitutional?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&triedRedirect=true
The reality in practice is that Congress, and politics more generally, are the only constraints on the president in this context. I am not saying that this is the constitutional rule, or that the Iran strikes are constitutional (or unconstitutional). I do not think there is a constitutional rule that would answer the question. I am not thrilled about this conclusion, because, as I have emphasized before, the implications are staggering. But I think it is the right conclusion.
June 23, 2025 at 11:20 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
The American people decide when we go to war, not the king. The opposition is righteous. Do not cower. Go win the argument. https://open.substack.com/pub/neilweinberg44/p/the-american-people-get-to-decide
The decision to go to war belongs to the American people. We make these decisions through our elected representatives in Congress. The president is not a king who makes these decisions for us. He has stolen that right from the people. He gets to choose the bombers and the targets. The choice to go to war is ours. All of Trump's arguments and defense of his actions (i.e., that Iran is bad and this outcome is good) are irrelevant. You do not have to engage with them at all. We have a constitutional process design to decide if these actions are appropriate. He did not follow that process. He has contempt for the process. He does not feel bound by it at all.
June 22, 2025 at 1:51 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
I’ve written to @slotkin.senate.gov @peters.senate.gov and Rep. Barrett urging them to stand up for the American people’s role in declaring war.
Senator, I’m writing to urge you to come out forcefully in opposition to the president’s unauthorized attack on Iran. I know you come with more hawkish sensibilities than I do, and you may generally agree with taking military action against Iran. But it is vital that you stand up for the role of the American people, through their representatives in Congress, to determine if the United States will go to war. The president had no authority to launch this attack and I urge you not to be afraid to say so out of fear of being called weak. Standing up for the constitution and the rule of law does not make you a dove. Thank you, Neil Weinberg
June 22, 2025 at 1:11 AM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Is that good?
K% 2025 | Pitching (SP) 1. MacKenzie Gore SN 2. Tarik Skubal DET 3. Zack Wheeler PHI 4. Carlos Rodón NYY 5. Garrett Crochet BOS 35.4% 33.4% 32.1% 31.6% 30.9% < BB% 2025 | Pitching (SP) 1. Tarik Skubal DET 2. Zack Littell TBR 3. Matthew Liberatore STL 4. Bryan Woo SEA 5. Nathan Eovaldi TEX 2.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8%
June 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
The “safety net” is an essential service and Democrats need to stop being afraid to say so.

https://open.substack.com/pub/neilweinberg44/p/the-safety-net-is-an-essential-service
People act like those who pay taxes and do not receive direct payments from social programs are somehow not recipients of government services. If you think about that for a second, you realize it's deeply stupid, but it is the prevailing attitude of most of the country. Just to take the right's favorite stuff: We fund cops and prosecutors and prisons (theoretically) to support a law and order based society. The presence of those institutions makes it so you can run your business without getting ransacked by gangs, but also so that you can be sure when someone enters into a contract with you that there are consequences for them if they break the contract or commit fraud. There is a whole apparatus you benefit from that only exists because we fund these things with tax dollars. We don't all benefit equally from law enforcement, or education, or roads, but the whole idea is that in order for society to operate some things need to be handled collectively.
June 7, 2025 at 12:06 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
I love how Torres told Báez the scouting report against him was to get him to swing at pitches outside the zone and that he shouldn’t do that and now he’s good again https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6276951/2025/04/14/javier-baez-roadmap-viability-tigers/?source=user_shared_article
Last year against him, when we were gonna face him, we tried to pitch outside the zone, and he was chasing,” Torres said. “I always tell him little things. Like, ‘Yo, remember before the at-bat, they’re likely going to throw you two pitches off (the plate). Let’s see if you swing. If not, the (next pitches) are gonna be in the zone. Those are gonna be the pitches you hit.’ … It’s just been a lot of conversations, and so far, so good.”
May 14, 2025 at 12:29 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
More Souters. https://open.substack.com/pub/stevevladeck/p/149-david-hackett-souter-19392025?r=141dg&utm_medium=ios
16 years after his retirement from the Court at the unusually young age of 69, the phrase best associated with the late justice is almost certainly “No more Souters.” As someone who spends a lot of time thinking about long-term (and not just short-term) Court reform, it strikes me that “more Souters” would actually be a damned good place to start.
May 12, 2025 at 12:00 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
The tariffs clearly violate the major questions doctrine. This is as clear cut as it gets. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12077
Overview Agencies often must interpret statutes that grant them regulatory authority. If challenged, courts may need to review such interpretations to determine if an agency has exceeded its authority. In doing so, courts will sometimes defer to an agency's interpretation of an ambiguous statute. The Supreme Court has explained that, in general, courts interpret statutory language "in [its] context and with a view to [its] place in the overall statutory scheme." In cases where there is something extraordinary about the "history and breadth of the authority" an agency asserts or the "economic and political significance" of that assertion, however, the Court indicated courts should "hesitate before concluding that Congress meant to confer such authority." West Virginia v. EPA, 142 S. Ct. 2587, 2607-2608 (2022). Under the major questions doctrine, the Supreme Court has rejected agency claims of regulatory authority when (1) the underlying claim of authority concerns an issue of "vast 'economic and political significance,'' and (2) Congress has not clearly empowered the agency with authority over the issue. Util. Air Regul. Grp. (UARG) v. EPA, 573 U.S. 302, 324 (2014). In requiring agencies to point to clear congressional authorization for their actions in major questions cases, the Supreme Court has further explained that Congress rarely provides an extraordinary grant of regulatory authority through language that is modest, vague, subtle, or ambiguous.
April 3, 2025 at 1:26 AM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
We don’t want agreeableness from our leaders, we want pro-social assertiveness.

My extension of @brianbeutler.bsky.social No Human Doormats: https://open.substack.com/pub/neilweinberg44/p/pro-social-assertiveness-is-the-way
People don’t want compromise seekers who bow to whatever is demanded of them in the name of agreeableness. But they also don’t want bullies who demand obedience. They want people who will stand up to bullies, particularly if the target of the bullying is someone else. The person who starts the fight? Sucks. The person who tries to appease the bully? Sucks. The person who tells the bully to fuck off? Loved. We need a class of leaders who aren’t afraid of conflict. They should be comfortable in fights. They should understand the public is fine with combativeness, even wants it, as long as that combativeness is responsive. Being assertive for the good of others is the skeleton key. It’s what Democrats need to orient themselves around.
March 30, 2025 at 2:03 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
Losing my mind at the retrospective posts arguing Covid restrictions went too far. Insane rewriting of history. We failed to respond to the crisis, it was a catastrophe. https://open.substack.com/pub/neilweinberg44/p/we-were-tested-by-covid-and-we-failed
But it slowly dawned on me what was happening. I watched most people decide they couldn’t be inconvenienced for the greater good and that they would then produce stupid rationalizations for that selfishness. I don’t mean to diminish what people went through because of the mitigation measures. I was only allowed to go to two prenatal appointments. We had a baby shower on Zoom. My daughter was born with her mother and I at the hospital and no other visitors. I missed my high school best friend’s wedding. Lots of people, especially high school kids, missed out on a lot because things were restricted. People didn’t get to see their loved ones on their death beds. But the restrictions were there to save lives. Clearly. I don’t know how to talk to people who wanted to go to bars and gyms in May so badly that they would risk killing their neighbor. This isn’t theoretical. A million people died.
March 29, 2025 at 1:49 PM
neilweinberg44.bsky.social
I wrote this to my kids the day of the election. I didn’t realize how much it was going to apply to Dems after he won Jesus Christ
So I am frustrated about the limits of my influence when thinking about world events, but I am glowing with rage at the people who have actual influence and who have, for various reasons, chosen not to act. They are some combination of immoral and cowardly, and many of them have the nerve to dress up their inaction as high-minded. These people have covered themselves in the eternal shame of their failure and I badly want them to pay an enormous price.
March 13, 2025 at 11:12 PM