with thanks to Lee Jones Shahar Hameiri whose BRI work has been vital to this paper. Insights also from work of @dnsltr.bsky.social, @tompepinsky.com and many others.

This study challenges oversimplified claims that China’s investments universally drives authoritarianism. Instead, it shows how external investments interact with domestic political settlements to produce varied outcomes. #BRI #ComparativePolitics #Authoritarianism

13/ BRI investments don’t inherently drive authoritarianism—they amplify existing political dynamics.

12/ This divergence reflects differences in elite coalitions and levels of electoral contestation:
- Cambodia’s cohesive elite coalition used BRI funds to strengthen its authoritarian grip.
- Malaysia’s fragmented coalition saw BRI investments expose and amplify divisions.

11/ Disquiet over the BRI further contributed to fracturing elite cohesion + popular discontent with UMNO-BN, contributing to opposition’s win in 2018. Competitive elections provided a pathway for regime turnover, albeit in a system still marked by patronage and clientelism.

10/ BRI investment fed into long-term political fractures in the UMNO-BN coalition. BRI investments, including the East Coast Rail Link, became tied to corruption scandals like 1MDB and popular disquiet over UMNO-BN, as well as a factor in Malaysia's racialised politics.

9/ Until 2018, Malaysia was dominated by the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional coalition. Unlike Cambodia, Malaysia’s competitive electoral authoritarianism allowed for real opposition mobilization.

8/ At the same time, Cambodia's coercive and more closed variant of electoral authoritarianism offered no meaningful electoral accountability, with the CPP doing away with competitive elections altogether in 2018.

7/ BRI projects (e.g., Lower Sesan II dam, Sihanoukville SEZ) reinforced CPP’s elite networks, was used to legitimize repression, as well as support CPP claims of "developmental success."

6/ The CPP has ruled Cambodia since 1979. It operates through a tightly knit elite coalition of political leaders and business tycoons, sustained by patronage and crony capitalism, underwritten by coercion.

5/ Why such different outcomes? The key lies in their respective political settlements/underlying political economy dynamics + variants of electoral authoritarianism present in each country. These domestic factors shaped how Chinese investments shaped their political systems.

4/ In #Malaysia, BRI investments became tied to corruption scandals, notably the 1MDB affair and broader public discontent and contributed to the fall of the long-ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in 2018, leading to greater political competition.

3/ In #Cambodia, BRI investments deepened authoritarianism. The ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) eliminated political opposition and entrenched its power, aided by infrastructure projects and economic resources from China.

2/ My article focuses on #Cambodia 🇰🇭 and #Malaysia 🇲🇾—two major BRI recipients. Both countries were classified as electoral authoritarian regimes in 2013, yet their political trajectories diverged over the last decade.

1/ The #BeltandRoad #BRI represents, by some estimates, over $1 trillion in global infrastructure+ other investments, fuelling debates about its political consequences.