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Stumptown - A more arbitrary omission, but 20 career starts over fences and a 4th season chaser indicate the handicapper has already found him out. Otherwise ticks all the boxes!

Notable exceptions include:

I Am Maximus - Returning National winners normally do pretty well but can’t see him winning carrying top weight with no form this season.

Iroko - highly fancied but no proven form in a key trial race of 3m or further (although this didn’t stop Noble Yeats in 2022).

Out the above together and only three horses strictly ticking all the boxes, they are…

Nick Rockett
Intense Raffles
Perceval Legallois

If you extend a bit of flex to include GB trained horses then Monbeg Genius and The Kandoo Kid also tick all the remaining boxes.

Preparation: Finally, no horse has placed since 2015 off a longer break than 2017 winner One For Arthur’s 84 days rest.

Weight: Last nine renewals produced winners off 11-9 (Many Clouds) and 11-5 (Tiger Roll). Statistically horses carrying over a 12lbs over bottom weight have a 20% each-way payout rate. So Weight is probably not a factor UNLESS the ground is soft, which isn’t happening today!!

Experience: The last nine winners were all aged 7-9, had less than 20 career starts and were 2nd or 3rd season chasers, except Noble Yeats who was still a novice!

Form: 8/9 winners since 2015 had won a chase in the same season before their Aintree triumph. 8/9 also placed in at least one of their last two runs. All 9 did one or the other.

Stamina: 32/36 horses finishing in the money since 2015 have a career top five finish in the Cross Country Chase, Paddy Power Chase, Bobbyjo Chase, Becher Chase, Theystes Chase, Coral Gold Cup, Irish National, Ultima Handicap, Cheltenham Gold Cup or the Grand National itself.

Irish🇮🇪: 17/18 horses finishing 1-2-3 since 2018 were trained in Ireland. The notable exception being 2023 winner Corach Rambler.