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Brexit has cut UK GDP by 6 percent to 8 percent by 2025. These negative impacts come from higher uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time and trade costs, from @nickbloom.bsky.social, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites www.nber.org/papers/w34459
November 14, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Brexit has cut UK GDP by 6 percent to 8 percent by 2025. These negative impacts come from higher uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time and trade costs, from @nickbloom.bsky.social, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites www.nber.org/papers/w34459
When South Korea required language tests for marriage visas, cross-border marriages briefly fell—but divorce rates dropped 37 percent, from So Yoon Ahn and Darren Lubotsky www.nber.org/papers/w34458
November 14, 2025 at 8:02 PM
When South Korea required language tests for marriage visas, cross-border marriages briefly fell—but divorce rates dropped 37 percent, from So Yoon Ahn and Darren Lubotsky www.nber.org/papers/w34458
1930s US bank branching reforms improved credit allocation and raised productivity as internal capital markets directed funds to financially constrained regions, from Sarah Quincy and Chenzi Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34457
November 14, 2025 at 6:03 PM
1930s US bank branching reforms improved credit allocation and raised productivity as internal capital markets directed funds to financially constrained regions, from Sarah Quincy and Chenzi Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34457
Exposure to a field-specific faculty sexual misconduct incident decreases degree completion in that field by 3.4 percent four years after the incident, from Sarah R. Cohodes and Katherine B. Leu www.nber.org/papers/w34456
November 14, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Exposure to a field-specific faculty sexual misconduct incident decreases degree completion in that field by 3.4 percent four years after the incident, from Sarah R. Cohodes and Katherine B. Leu www.nber.org/papers/w34456
Reviewing historical budget trends and basic fiscal processes, from Alan J. Auerbach and William Gale www.nber.org/papers/w34455
November 14, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Reviewing historical budget trends and basic fiscal processes, from Alan J. Auerbach and William Gale www.nber.org/papers/w34455
November 14, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Regulated coal and gas units in the US have been 45 percent less likely to exit since 2010, from Lucas W. Davis and Paige E. Weber www.nber.org/papers/w34454
November 13, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Regulated coal and gas units in the US have been 45 percent less likely to exit since 2010, from Lucas W. Davis and Paige E. Weber www.nber.org/papers/w34454
Using survey data to show that agents' individual consumption expectations are consistent with time-varying present bias and find large asset pricing effects, from Lars A. Lochstoer, Stig R. H. Lundeby, and Zhaneta K. Tancheva www.nber.org/papers/w34453
November 13, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Using survey data to show that agents' individual consumption expectations are consistent with time-varying present bias and find large asset pricing effects, from Lars A. Lochstoer, Stig R. H. Lundeby, and Zhaneta K. Tancheva www.nber.org/papers/w34453
The effects of the surge in interior immigration apprehensions in 2025 in the US on student academic performance using detailed student-level administrative records from Florida, from David N. Figlio and Umut Özek www.nber.org/papers/w34452
November 13, 2025 at 4:06 PM
The effects of the surge in interior immigration apprehensions in 2025 in the US on student academic performance using detailed student-level administrative records from Florida, from David N. Figlio and Umut Özek www.nber.org/papers/w34452
Adaptive persistence of elite families despite regime change, alongside lasting regional scarring, highlighting the role of cultural transmission for social mobility, from Carol H. Shiue and Wolfgang Keller www.nber.org/papers/w34451
November 13, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Adaptive persistence of elite families despite regime change, alongside lasting regional scarring, highlighting the role of cultural transmission for social mobility, from Carol H. Shiue and Wolfgang Keller www.nber.org/papers/w34451
Featured in the latest Bulletin on Health: Pain Management and the Opioid Epidemic
www.nber.org/bh/20253/pai...
www.nber.org/bh/20253/pai...
November 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Featured in the latest Bulletin on Health: Pain Management and the Opioid Epidemic
www.nber.org/bh/20253/pai...
www.nber.org/bh/20253/pai...
Standard demand elasticity estimates assume stable investor demand curves identified by exogenous supply shifts. Showing this fails in dynamic settings, where supply shocks tilt and shift demand through general equilibrium effects., from He, Kondor, and Li www.nber.org/papers/w34450
November 12, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Standard demand elasticity estimates assume stable investor demand curves identified by exogenous supply shifts. Showing this fails in dynamic settings, where supply shocks tilt and shift demand through general equilibrium effects., from He, Kondor, and Li www.nber.org/papers/w34450
Open call for papers, AI and Economic Measurement. Conference to be held in Stanford, CA on May 7, 2026. Submit applications by 11:59pm EDT on February 2, 2025. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...
November 12, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Open call for papers, AI and Economic Measurement. Conference to be held in Stanford, CA on May 7, 2026. Submit applications by 11:59pm EDT on February 2, 2025. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...
Over the past 3 decades, high-skill migrants from Asia—especially India and China—have transformed the US economy, fueling innovation, tech, higher ed, and healthcare growth, from Gaurav Khanna www.nber.org/papers/w34449
November 12, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Over the past 3 decades, high-skill migrants from Asia—especially India and China—have transformed the US economy, fueling innovation, tech, higher ed, and healthcare growth, from Gaurav Khanna www.nber.org/papers/w34449
Shifts in probabilities can be priced like cash flows, offering new tools to analyze valuation, welfare, and information, from Eduardo Dávila, Cecilia Parlatore, and Ansgar Walther www.nber.org/papers/w34448
November 12, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Shifts in probabilities can be priced like cash flows, offering new tools to analyze valuation, welfare, and information, from Eduardo Dávila, Cecilia Parlatore, and Ansgar Walther www.nber.org/papers/w34448
Exploring the early history of in-person political campaigning and documenting an evolving norm of campaigning, from Francisco Pino and Laura Salisbury www.nber.org/papers/w34447
November 12, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Exploring the early history of in-person political campaigning and documenting an evolving norm of campaigning, from Francisco Pino and Laura Salisbury www.nber.org/papers/w34447
Reviewing the literature that uses survey data to study expectation formation among investors, from Stefano Giglio, @mmaggiori.bsky.social, Joachim Rillo, Johannes Stroebel, Stephen P. Utkus, and Xiao Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34446
November 11, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Reviewing the literature that uses survey data to study expectation formation among investors, from Stefano Giglio, @mmaggiori.bsky.social, Joachim Rillo, Johannes Stroebel, Stephen P. Utkus, and Xiao Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34446
Minimum wages in Brazil substantially raised wages for informal workers, and effects of the policy on reallocation out of formal employment were limited, from Ellora Derenoncourt, François Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos, and Claire Montialoux www.nber.org/papers/w34445
November 11, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Minimum wages in Brazil substantially raised wages for informal workers, and effects of the policy on reallocation out of formal employment were limited, from Ellora Derenoncourt, François Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos, and Claire Montialoux www.nber.org/papers/w34445
The impact of AI on workers depends critically on whether the AI-seller has market power. A monopoly seller of AI services causes significant harm to an economy, from Susan Athey and Fiona Scott Morton www.nber.org/papers/w34444
November 11, 2025 at 4:02 PM
The impact of AI on workers depends critically on whether the AI-seller has market power. A monopoly seller of AI services causes significant harm to an economy, from Susan Athey and Fiona Scott Morton www.nber.org/papers/w34444
A unifying empirical framework for covered and uncovered currency premia, interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates, both in the cross section and time series of currencies, from Mai C. Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and Oleg Itskhoki www.nber.org/papers/w34443
November 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
A unifying empirical framework for covered and uncovered currency premia, interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates, both in the cross section and time series of currencies, from Mai C. Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and Oleg Itskhoki www.nber.org/papers/w34443
Examining the motives, constraints, and sequencing behind Argentina’s 2017 tax reform, from Santiago Afonso and Sebastian Galiani www.nber.org/papers/w34442
November 10, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Examining the motives, constraints, and sequencing behind Argentina’s 2017 tax reform, from Santiago Afonso and Sebastian Galiani www.nber.org/papers/w34442
New research finds most riders do not compare prices on Uber and Lyft—yet an audit of NYC rides shows identical trips differ in price by about 14 percent, from Jeffrey Fossett, Michael Luca, and Yejia Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34441
November 10, 2025 at 7:02 PM
New research finds most riders do not compare prices on Uber and Lyft—yet an audit of NYC rides shows identical trips differ in price by about 14 percent, from Jeffrey Fossett, Michael Luca, and Yejia Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34441
Immigrant students who attend US colleges take jobs in the largest and smallest firms and show strong future earnings, from Francis M. Dillon, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Andrew J. Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34440
November 10, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Immigrant students who attend US colleges take jobs in the largest and smallest firms and show strong future earnings, from Francis M. Dillon, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Andrew J. Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34440
Arguing that complexity methods can augment the study of inequality, with particular value in understanding the meaning of systemic determinants of disparities, from @durlauf.bsky.social, David McMillon, and Scott Page www.nber.org/papers/w34381
November 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Arguing that complexity methods can augment the study of inequality, with particular value in understanding the meaning of systemic determinants of disparities, from @durlauf.bsky.social, David McMillon, and Scott Page www.nber.org/papers/w34381
To what extent does the quantification of labor market power depend on the modeling of the long-term worker-firm employment relationship, from Francesco Agostinelli, Domenico Ferraro, Giuseppe Sorrenti, and Leonard Treuren www.nber.org/papers/w34439
November 9, 2025 at 9:15 PM
To what extent does the quantification of labor market power depend on the modeling of the long-term worker-firm employment relationship, from Francesco Agostinelli, Domenico Ferraro, Giuseppe Sorrenti, and Leonard Treuren www.nber.org/papers/w34439