Nice day at @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social talking vaccines and spending time with great folks here.

8/N Since we are making state-level projections, accounting for state data on demography, vaccination, and import risk, we also see state-level variation in risk, such as for measles.

7/N We want these vaccine-eliminated infectious diseases to stay gone - to not become commonplace again. What is the risk for them to return to endemic levels? Check out the figure below.

4/N Key findings: At current vaccination levels or with modest vaccine declines, measles is poised to re-establish endemicity, becoming a commonplace disease again.
📈A 10% drop in MMR coverage? >11 million measles cases over 25 years, becoming endemic around 10 years

🧵1/N New study published in @jama.com on re-emergence of vaccine-eliminated infectious diseases under declining vaccination in the US. We model long-term risk and conditions for return to endemicity for measles, rubella, polio, & diphtheria. Collab w/ @Mathewkiang.com jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

2/N Our key finding is that vaccines provide the strongest indirect protection (i.e., reduced risk of infection in close contacts of the vaccinated person) for 3 months after vaccination, while infection-acquired immunity provides moderately strong indirect protection for 6 months.

🧵 1/N Our new study on the strength and durability of indirect protection from vaccines and infection-acquired immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is published this week in @naturecomms.bsky.social! We find that both vaccines and infection-acquired immunity reduce transmission to close contacts.