Nate Ives
@nateives.bsky.social
(former) USAID economist/researcher now based in Bangkok
Reposted by Nate Ives
Very interesting perspective! I often have the opposite thought: "Experimenting like a modeller"
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Modelling Like an Experimentalist
Dahlin et al. (2024) apply experimental thinking to a model of mosquito-borne disease transmissions.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Very interesting perspective! I often have the opposite thought: "Experimenting like a modeller"
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Reposted by Nate Ives
The elimination of USAID is a moral atrocity and all involved made a choice to enable, and then lie about, ending the lives of some of the most vulnerable people in the world.
October 8, 2025 at 2:09 PM
The elimination of USAID is a moral atrocity and all involved made a choice to enable, and then lie about, ending the lives of some of the most vulnerable people in the world.
Reposted by Nate Ives
The IPC data on famine in Gaza is utterly horrifying. Don't look away. www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-webs...
August 26, 2025 at 5:12 PM
The IPC data on famine in Gaza is utterly horrifying. Don't look away. www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-webs...
Reposted by Nate Ives
A new paper in The Lancet, one of the world’s foremost peer reviewed medical journals, estimates that USAID prevented 91 million deaths across 133 countries over 20 years.
The paper estimates that Elon Musk’s DOGE funding cuts to USAID will lead to 14 million deaths by 2030 (4.5 million children).
The paper estimates that Elon Musk’s DOGE funding cuts to USAID will lead to 14 million deaths by 2030 (4.5 million children).
Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality
across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates
show that, unless the a...
www.thelancet.com
July 1, 2025 at 10:43 AM
A new paper in The Lancet, one of the world’s foremost peer reviewed medical journals, estimates that USAID prevented 91 million deaths across 133 countries over 20 years.
The paper estimates that Elon Musk’s DOGE funding cuts to USAID will lead to 14 million deaths by 2030 (4.5 million children).
The paper estimates that Elon Musk’s DOGE funding cuts to USAID will lead to 14 million deaths by 2030 (4.5 million children).
Simulation isn't just for academics—it's a practical tool for practitioners dealing with methodological uncertainty. When we (Jacob Patterson-Stein and myself) encountered a questionable difference-in-differences study at USAID, we didn't just critique it; we simulated the problem.
Simulation, DID, and PSM
By Jacob Patterson-Stein and Nate Ives The workhorse model of most graduate programs—difference-in-differences estimation—is not just being revisited and revised, but totally reconsidered as a way of ...
www.linkedin.com
June 16, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Simulation isn't just for academics—it's a practical tool for practitioners dealing with methodological uncertainty. When we (Jacob Patterson-Stein and myself) encountered a questionable difference-in-differences study at USAID, we didn't just critique it; we simulated the problem.
An epithet “portlandia” shouted whilst I passed /
Damn my wit sharp but much too shorne /
unlike my hair, grown past my ass /
“duck dynasty!” too late, I mourned
Damn my wit sharp but much too shorne /
unlike my hair, grown past my ass /
“duck dynasty!” too late, I mourned
May 30, 2025 at 11:47 PM
An epithet “portlandia” shouted whilst I passed /
Damn my wit sharp but much too shorne /
unlike my hair, grown past my ass /
“duck dynasty!” too late, I mourned
Damn my wit sharp but much too shorne /
unlike my hair, grown past my ass /
“duck dynasty!” too late, I mourned
Reposted by Nate Ives
The Chicago Pope implies the existence of a New Keynesian Pope and a Behavioral Pope
May 8, 2025 at 6:05 PM
The Chicago Pope implies the existence of a New Keynesian Pope and a Behavioral Pope
I’m mostly bacterium
Hint of sass
Hint of sass
May 5, 2025 at 7:51 PM
I’m mostly bacterium
Hint of sass
Hint of sass
Reposted by Nate Ives
flashback to how americans acted the last time federal agents started kidnapping their neighbors
April 18, 2025 at 1:05 AM
flashback to how americans acted the last time federal agents started kidnapping their neighbors
Reposted by Nate Ives
Rubio terminated 5800 USAID contracts – more than 90% of its foreign aid programs – in defiance of the courts.
Here’s a list of just some of the lifesaving awards that were terminated. Nearly all were Congressionally mandated. They’ve saved millions of lives. 🧵
Here’s a list of just some of the lifesaving awards that were terminated. Nearly all were Congressionally mandated. They’ve saved millions of lives. 🧵
February 27, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Rubio terminated 5800 USAID contracts – more than 90% of its foreign aid programs – in defiance of the courts.
Here’s a list of just some of the lifesaving awards that were terminated. Nearly all were Congressionally mandated. They’ve saved millions of lives. 🧵
Here’s a list of just some of the lifesaving awards that were terminated. Nearly all were Congressionally mandated. They’ve saved millions of lives. 🧵
Reposted by Nate Ives
I cannot begin to tell you what a massive loss this is if you don’t already know
Arson. These people are committing arson.
Arson. These people are committing arson.
The Demographic and Heath Survey program received their USAID termination email last night
www.linkedin.com/posts/caren-...
www.linkedin.com/posts/caren-...
February 25, 2025 at 5:51 PM
I cannot begin to tell you what a massive loss this is if you don’t already know
Arson. These people are committing arson.
Arson. These people are committing arson.
As is now happening at IES, at USAID as far as I know all data collection awards have been canceled including the DHS. It’s hard to convey just how disastrous this loss will be. Truly is like flying with no external information at all.
February 12, 2025 at 12:31 AM
As is now happening at IES, at USAID as far as I know all data collection awards have been canceled including the DHS. It’s hard to convey just how disastrous this loss will be. Truly is like flying with no external information at all.
Reposted by Nate Ives
What can you do about the assault on USAID?
Share this far and wide. Do your part! Please do retweet 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Share this far and wide. Do your part! Please do retweet 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
February 7, 2025 at 1:20 PM
What can you do about the assault on USAID?
Share this far and wide. Do your part! Please do retweet 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Share this far and wide. Do your part! Please do retweet 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Reposted by Nate Ives
Elon says 90% of US aid never reaches communities.
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
February 4, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Elon says 90% of US aid never reaches communities.
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
Reposted by Nate Ives
Trump has not just paused new foreign aid. Today Marco Rubio sent a cable to all US diplomatic missions calling for immediate “stop work” orders on *existing* projects.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
January 25, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Trump has not just paused new foreign aid. Today Marco Rubio sent a cable to all US diplomatic missions calling for immediate “stop work” orders on *existing* projects.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
Note to self—never assume you’re going to have a quick discussion on p-values with your colleagues.
January 16, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Note to self—never assume you’re going to have a quick discussion on p-values with your colleagues.