Shelter may keep the headline number suppressed (haven’t been as locked in on the data there recently), but consumer experience of inflation on daily goods could get bad again here soon

When you look at past crises and see private companies, engaging in the bubble of the day, doing deals with complex financing structures, it’s usually presented as ominous foreshadowing. Availability bias to that of course

Yep, these companies still see a long customer acquisition ramp ahead. But you also see Flutter (Fan Duel parent) for example, recently becoming net income profitable, and consistently growing FCF.

They’re doing better than ever, in fact. Could change in the future at some point of course.

Very interesting to see large jumps among the core betting demographics

It’s basically like buying a house. The bank will lend to you in the form of a mortgage, which is secured against the asset you are about to buy. The buyer can’t afford to put in 100% equity, much like a PE firm executing an LBO

Anything related to the Sempra infrastructure unit sale?

Isn't this just the nature of capitalism? If you have any values beyond return associated with a project, it won't be as streamlined. And the more extreme your "values" are, the slower it will go compared to the value-free (or value-lite) alternative scenario

Funny joke once, now every moment of downtime is Bargatze hammering the same joke

Wondering if this is related to the CAVA, SG, CMG doing poorly while the EAT, CAKE, DRI seem to be doing fine

10 months ago I thought there was a chance they would just keep the lights on, let “business confidence” improve, and take credit for a good economy…

Construction jobs drying up

Is the view based on some theory that tariff announcements were a one time hit to business confidence?

Really great charts today Ben

The doves would argue the Fed is closer to the inflation target than their targeted labor market health

This has been a very strong, if somewhat accidental theme of Odd Lots over the years @tracyalloway.bsky.social @weisenthal.bsky.social