I suppose it was you who taught me to be skeptical of uncertainty (though it confirmed my pre-existing bias)! Been a pretty good guide to economic affairs so far it seems.

I agree. I'm concerned about the recession predictions that lower the bar and make just the lack of a recession (even if the economy is sluggish) seem good. I'm also concerned about predictions of inflation (rather than a price level effect) for the same reason.

I have trouble understanding what is supposed to be driving a recession right now. I get the depressing effect of tariff "uncertainty," but is that enough to produce a freeze in money markets or a significant crash in investment spending if other major categories of expenditure aren't declining?