Nick Geiser
@nageiser.bsky.social
(ex?) political philosopher. Data scientist. Jaynes-pilled.
Iran signaled their missile attack on Qatar strikes in advance, which suggests they are face-saving and Iran wants deescalation. Markets seem to interpret it this way as well:
June 23, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Iran signaled their missile attack on Qatar strikes in advance, which suggests they are face-saving and Iran wants deescalation. Markets seem to interpret it this way as well:
Wild how little has changed from antiliberalism in the 80s (Unger, MacIntyre, Lasch) to the 2010s (Deneen)
June 3, 2025 at 4:27 AM
Wild how little has changed from antiliberalism in the 80s (Unger, MacIntyre, Lasch) to the 2010s (Deneen)
“Martha Stewart still looks amazing”
May 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
“Martha Stewart still looks amazing”
And it still couldn’t create an image where the clock hands indicate 6:40!
January 5, 2025 at 9:49 PM
And it still couldn’t create an image where the clock hands indicate 6:40!
I asked it to list the numbers that are in the top and bottom half of a standard analog clock, and it did realize that it had made a mistake. However, it still couldn’t actually analyze the position of the hands in the image:
January 5, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I asked it to list the numbers that are in the top and bottom half of a standard analog clock, and it did realize that it had made a mistake. However, it still couldn’t actually analyze the position of the hands in the image:
Next, it made a really interesting mistake—it claimed that the hands couldn’t both be in the bottom half of the clock face:
January 5, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Next, it made a really interesting mistake—it claimed that the hands couldn’t both be in the bottom half of the clock face:
I next tried to get ChatGPT to tell me what the position of the hands on each of the three clocks are (it couldn’t):
January 5, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I next tried to get ChatGPT to tell me what the position of the hands on each of the three clocks are (it couldn’t):
I tried clarifying the question, to no avail:
January 5, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I tried clarifying the question, to no avail:
Apparently if you ask ChatGPT to create an image of an analog clock showing a time (e.g. 6:40) it is incapable of presenting the hands in the correct position:
January 5, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Apparently if you ask ChatGPT to create an image of an analog clock showing a time (e.g. 6:40) it is incapable of presenting the hands in the correct position:
Even Rousseau (no fan of medicine and a “wellness” booster) admits this:
December 31, 2024 at 12:05 AM
Even Rousseau (no fan of medicine and a “wellness” booster) admits this:
Beautiful morning in Palm Springs:
December 14, 2024 at 5:42 PM
Beautiful morning in Palm Springs:
The Brouwer fixed-point theorem implies that for any polling forecast, there is some forecasted outcome that will be confirmed by actual voters--even if voters take the forecast into account:
November 18, 2024 at 7:10 PM
The Brouwer fixed-point theorem implies that for any polling forecast, there is some forecasted outcome that will be confirmed by actual voters--even if voters take the forecast into account:
Imagine a disclaimer like this for any other Nobel prize announcement:
"We're not totally sure if this thing is the Higgs boson, but the LHC is cool and the result is strongly suggestive."
"We're not totally sure if this thing is the Higgs boson, but the LHC is cool and the result is strongly suggestive."
October 15, 2024 at 4:59 PM
Imagine a disclaimer like this for any other Nobel prize announcement:
"We're not totally sure if this thing is the Higgs boson, but the LHC is cool and the result is strongly suggestive."
"We're not totally sure if this thing is the Higgs boson, but the LHC is cool and the result is strongly suggestive."
Apropos of the Grant's Pass decision, here's Jeremy Waldron on turning basic human necessities like sleeping into crimes:
June 28, 2024 at 11:21 PM
Apropos of the Grant's Pass decision, here's Jeremy Waldron on turning basic human necessities like sleeping into crimes:
He... he literally said the Anatole France line.
"The law in its majestic equality prohibits the backpacking influencer and the homeless alike from sleeping in the park."
"The law in its majestic equality prohibits the backpacking influencer and the homeless alike from sleeping in the park."
June 28, 2024 at 10:44 PM
He... he literally said the Anatole France line.
"The law in its majestic equality prohibits the backpacking influencer and the homeless alike from sleeping in the park."
"The law in its majestic equality prohibits the backpacking influencer and the homeless alike from sleeping in the park."
A very simple Intro IR argument: countries negotiate when the costs of fighting are greater than the alternatives. If a cease-fire raises the costs of fighting, a negotiated settlement is more likely. So the US should push for a cease-fire.
October 25, 2023 at 4:51 PM
A very simple Intro IR argument: countries negotiate when the costs of fighting are greater than the alternatives. If a cease-fire raises the costs of fighting, a negotiated settlement is more likely. So the US should push for a cease-fire.
October 12, 2023 at 1:07 AM
One idea from IPE that ordinary ppl should appreciate more is that issuing a reserve currency has large costs since you have to absorb capital inflows/protect int'l owners of capital at the expense of the domestic economy:
September 12, 2023 at 3:31 PM
One idea from IPE that ordinary ppl should appreciate more is that issuing a reserve currency has large costs since you have to absorb capital inflows/protect int'l owners of capital at the expense of the domestic economy: