No worries! Probably because I’m not great at promoting myself 😁

Lastly, I think it has a pretty good summary of the competing arguments and findings, including both the public opinion/experimental approaches and the cross-national time-series analyses

I find that conscription is not associated with restraint, and that cross nationally it is more likely to increase the probability of conflict initiation. Unlike previous studies, I also account for the size of the military relative to the population

Oh yeah, I think especially some of the earlier books. For some reason abaddon’s gate is jumping out at me (dynamics on the OPA ship) but there’s also good links with Duarte’s whole régime toward the end

Thanks, Chris. It’s hard to cover all your bases here and be adequately nuanced. I may have misinterpreted your engagement as trying to poke holes rather than building or clarifying.

My comment was meant to protect me against the accusation that I think its okay to target civilians. Instead it sounds like you think I dont think these questions matter, even though I clearly said otherwise. Here I thought I was ready to be more active here…there really is no winning on SM…

Of course. When I said moot, I meant from a perspective of US policy. Clearly I still think the questions have value

Still I think raises some questions: is civilian morale what influences leaders? How long does it take to significantly affect civilian morale? And can we distinguish between the effect of instilling terror on the population from the effect of destroying war making capacity and economic opportunity

Im no historian, but ive always been pretty persuaded by the argument that the soviet invasion was the decisive factor (though surely the bombings were ssignificant).

Im hard pressed to think of an example where it hasn’t unified or hardened resolve, at least in the short term! Even if it eventually undermines morale enough to end war, there’s still the question of whether the population is more likely to blame their own government

Me too, kid. Me too