Mark Blumenthal
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mysterypollster.bsky.social
Mark Blumenthal
@mysterypollster.bsky.social
3.5K followers 330 following 120 posts
Pollster. Husband. Father. Cyclist. Currently: YouGov (contractor). Formerly: SurveyMonkey, HuffPost, Pollster.com Contact me: https://linktr.ee/markblumenthal
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mysterypollster.bsky.social
5:00 am. Final pre-ride check list item: Poppa on board. Now we ride!!

#PMC2025 gives 100% of your donations to the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. pmc.org/MB0437
A photo of my late father-in-law Frank Burstin, Velcro strapped to my handlebars. Pops survived Auschwitz, but succumbed to cancer in 2008
August 2, 2025 at 9:19 AM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
I'm riding 186 miles across Massachusetts this weekend to raise $$ for the Dana Farber Cancer Institute, and I hope there's one thing my 6800 rider comrades and the 3500 volunteers should agree on: Let’s all support the National institutes of Health! #PMC2025
Me, standing in front of hundreds of bikes ready to ride the PanMass Challenge, holding a sign over my head that reads, “I support NIH”
August 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Oops
June 10, 2025 at 1:42 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
It’s more than ironic we learn of the coming demise of Fivethirtyeight on the day their Trump approval tracker turns net negative. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
/1
Chart of tend in approval rating of Donald Trump, currently showing 47.9% disapproval, 47.6% approval
March 5, 2025 at 12:55 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Here is the text of all the questions
Text: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: **I feel that this story perpetuates stereotypes and biases.** **I feel that this story is biased toward a particular political or ideological viewpoint.** **I feel that this story is trying to influence or manipulate my opinion.** **I can trust that any mistakes published in the story would be quickly acknowledged and corrected.** **I can trust that the information in this story is accurate and well-researched.** **I feel that The New York Times is dedicated to fair reporting.**
January 28, 2025 at 2:37 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
WTF @nytimes.com? On a @jamellebouie.net *op-ed* column?!?

This “survey” is what surrender looks like:
New York Times pops up a survey over a Jamelle Bouie column headlined “Now Is Not The Time For Surrender.” The question text: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I feel that this story is trying to influence or manipulate my opinion.”
January 28, 2025 at 2:37 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Los Angeles friends: Visiting your fair city and watching these planes in formation spelling out what looks like “…weeknights on ABC 7.” LA thing? Never seen before
January 1, 2025 at 10:25 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Ever wondered what you would have done at some prior moment in history? You’re doing it now. #StandWithAnnSelzer
Text from NYTimes article: “It is out of fear of crossing Mr. Trump that few Republican pollsters have publicly come to Ms. Selzer’s defense. A half dozen prominent Republican pollsters declined to comment for this article. ‘Know you gotta do the story, but count me as a pass,’ said one in a typical response to an email inquiry.”
December 20, 2024 at 12:10 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
So, survey research friends, is it just me or…. ?
November 27, 2024 at 10:17 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Taking my own advice, here's a toast to the only "exit" I'm watching right now
Holding a frozen margarita to toast an “exit” sign
November 5, 2024 at 11:05 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
A reporter called yesterday to ask about what I look for in "early exit polls." Here's my answer (emphasis added). A🧵of explanation follows... https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=referral&utm_content
November 5, 2024 at 4:02 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Why? Some polling error is normal — polls showed errors of 2+ points in 7 of the last 13 pres. elections, per Nate Silver — so either candidate could still easily sweep the battleground states this year

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/ (3/11)
November 1, 2024 at 7:38 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
5:00 am. One last #PMC2024 checklist item: Poppa on board! Now we ride.
#PMC2024 gives 100% of your donations to the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. Donation link via linktree in my bio.
August 3, 2024 at 9:08 AM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
@kwcollins.bsky.social Yesterday. The victim died.
June 6, 2024 at 1:43 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Feeling very proud and appreciative that @gelliottmorris.bsky.social incorporated a Transparency Score, based on my research presented at AAPOR 2023, into FiveThirtyEight's newly updated Pollster Ratings (abcnews.go.com/538/best-pol...), out today:
Quote from FiveThirtyEight article: "Our new ratings go a step further by incorporating a direct measurement of pollster transparency: Transparency Score. We developed this metric in collaboration with Mark Blumenthal, a pollster, past 538 contributor and co-founder of the (now sadly defunct) poll-aggregation website Pollster.com. Blumenthal has found that pollsters that released more information about their work tended to be more accurate during the 2022 election cycle. Therefore, having a specific score for each pollster's transparency should give us even more information with which to predict how well it will perform in the future. It also brings our definition of "trust" in a pollster closer to how scientists peer-review each other or how journalists vet other types of sources (data-driven journalism is, after all, journalism)."
January 25, 2024 at 4:07 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
The new @yahoonews.bsky.social / YouGov poll finds Ron DeSantis' support among potential GOP primary voters falling from his previous low of 23% in mid-July to just 12% today news.yahoo.com/poll-desanti...
August 23, 2023 at 10:03 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
My #PMC2013 is now complete! I rode the usual 186 miles over two days of near perfect weather and exceeded my fundraising goal, with $20,104 donated as of this writing. THANK YOU!
August 6, 2023 at 11:58 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
5:10 am. One last #PMC2023 checklist item: Poppa on board! Now we ride.

I'm just $486 from my $20k goal. Honored to have help blast past it https://pmc.org/MB0437

#PMC2023 gives 100% of your donations to the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.
August 5, 2023 at 9:17 AM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Yahoo News / YouGov poll also finds low support for reparations (“not necessarily direct cash payments — as a result of inequities caused by racism and slavery”) whether for "Black Americans" (24%) or “descendants of enslaved Black Americans” rather than all "Black Americans" (29%)
Chart showing low support for reparations (“restitution or reparations from the government — not necessarily direct cash payments — as a result of inequities caused by racism and slavery”) whether for "Black Americans" (24% yes, 56% no, 19% unsure) or “descendants of enslaved Black Americans” rather than all "Black Americans" (29% yes, 51% no, 20%)
July 21, 2023 at 12:52 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
"[A] sizable — and growing — majority of Americans now see the kind of Jan. 6 charges that could be brought against Trump as 'serious crimes':"

Yahoo News/YouGov poll
https://news.yahoo.com/poll-most-americans-say-biden-and-trump-are-not-fit-to-serve-as-president-133443536.html
Chart showing how many Americans consider various crimes as serious, with results from May 25-30, 2023 and July 13-17, 2023, including * 70% now consider 'inciting or aiding an insurrection against the federal government' to be serious crime, up 6 points from 64% in late May. * 70% now consider 'conspiring to overturn the results of a presidential election' to be a serious crime, up 4 points from 66% in late May. * 67% now consider 'attempting to obstruct the certification of a presidential election' to be a serious crime, up 4 points from 63% in late May."
July 20, 2023 at 2:06 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
The now typical partisan pattern: “A near-unanimous 94% of Trump’s 2020 voters say Biden is not fit to serve as president again; 91% of Biden’s 2020 voters say the same about Trump.”
Yahoo News/ @YouGovAmerica poll:
July 20, 2023 at 2:03 PM
mysterypollster.bsky.social
“Much of the shift in perceptions of how climate change has ‘made things worse’ in ‘your life so far’ has been concentrated among younger adults, who have gone from being the least likely age group to cite a negative effect in 2021 to the most likely group today”
Chart showing "made things worse" in "your life so far" has has increased more among younger adults: - Age 18-29: up 17 points, from 20% to 37% - Age 30-34: up 9 points, from 24% to 33% - Age 45-64: up 4 points, from 27% to 31% - Age 65+: down 1 point, from 35% to 34%
July 19, 2023 at 11:00 AM