Hey, I actually finished these before 2026! I still want to make posts for all the team and individual champions, so look forward to that next year. Surprise Teams Virtually all the D1 teams hit on their expected finishing range, with only one stepping to the better side - the White Lake Lakeland Girls. A very typical pattern for the school, as they're a bit more judicious in the amount of their races, saving their legs for their fastest efforts to close the season.

Am I the only one to have noticed these? I haven’t seen anything on the coaches’ forums, internet, social media, newsletters, or even an announcement from the MHSAA. The Early Qualifying Standards for the 2026 T&F season have been posted. Yes, you can check with your own eyes: Scroll about halfway down the page and look within the navy-blue box.

Surprise Teams The one team in all of Division 2 to place above the range I had projected, the one squad to greatly exceed expectations, those were the girls of New Boston Huron. Five of the Chiefs placed significantly better than projected: Zoey Cheney – projected 164th, placed 78th, and ran a personal best, dropping under 20-flat for the second time ever.

Surprise Teams Between the boys and girls, ONE team greatly exceeded expectations – the Traverse City St. Francis boys. Normally, I’d refer to the Glads’ championship experience, TCSF capturing the past two titles. But of their squad that competed in early November, only one boy could point back to a MIS performance, William Ready. Although Ready couldn’t quite capture his 2024 magic (11th place), he was able to summon his best effort of a shortened season.

Ahh, feels good to be back. This is the time of the year where I feel like an athlete, needing my down time after an arduous season. I've already put out some much too early 2026 rankings, now time to delve a little deeper into the stats of the State Finals. There will be more to come from the other divisions and more writings dedicated to the team and individual champions.

There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how Kamari, Katie, Emma, Romeo, and Pioneer will fare at NXN. That's not even to mention Brooks! A look back at the speed and adjustments of courses. Finding who improved most in 2025. But first, I can’t help but look to 2026.

There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how teams and individuals could fare at NXN or Brooks. A look back at the speed and adjustments of courses. Finding who improved most in 2025. But first, I can’t help but look to 2026. The foundation of the following fall will be built now, the winter miles key toward a strong track season that could lead to a stronger cross season.

There’s so much to report on – STATE RECORDS, unexpected winners, unexpected All-Staters, clutch performers in the final mile. But an easy one to start things off – PROJECTIONS vs. the cold-hearted truth of REALITY. I didn’t have time (frankly, no clue how I managed time the past two weeks) to write up an expected outcomes post as I did…

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners…

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners…

GIRLS TEAM The east side of Lansing is teeming with talent. Purely distance girls, mid-distance girls, hurdlers, a combination of which that is speedy on the track and title-worthy on the grass. That combination of ability led to a Lansing Catholic championship in 2024 and has positioned the Cougars as the favorite in 2025. Last year, the Cougars won on their strength from their 5th girl (

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners…

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 32 +17 +25 MIXC vs. REALITY Have you made it this far? Have you read ALL of the regional ratings? Are you worried that I won’t have time to delve into the State Final Projections? If you’ve read all of these, you’ll have noticed that the projections identified 193 of the top-3 teams. That’s not the best total of all time (197 or 198 last year, I can’t remember), but it is in line with what I expected.

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 33 +29 +27 MIXC vs. REALITY Both the boys’ and girls’ races featured heavy favorites for the top-two, then a slight favorite and slight underdog for the third spot. The boys’ race kept the same qualifiers, although Webberville moved up a spot. The 17 point difference between their projected figure and actual total was generated mainly via senior…

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 24 +10 +7 MIXC vs. REALITY Yet another region where the projections matched the output. All of those who were thought to be qualifiers had a 95%+ chance of advancing. As someone who always love seeing new faces, I’m enthused for the Montrose Boys, who haven’t had a single runner race at MIS since 2021 and are sending a team for the first time in six years.

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 12 +4 -2 MIXC vs. REALITY Poor damn Forest Hills Eastern. Come in as the #12 team, leave without a state qualifying team in this monster of a region. Thankfully, with three powerhouses up front, additional qualifying spots went far back, all the way to 19th, and three of the Hawk girls were able to advance.

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 16 -9 -11 The only region where, in both races, I had to subtract seconds from an athletes' time! MIXC vs. REALITY The teams projected to advance were the teams that actually advanced. In the same order as well. Judging by the scoring, a few squads out-performed expectation – both of the winners, the…

The gloves are great, competing at MIS is even better Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 8 +26 +23 MIXC vs. REALITY On the quick Clintonwood course, the girls’ qualifiers went as expected, at least in terms of the teams. What was unexpected were the Rochester Adams Highlanders pulling off a victory, clinching the regional title on the sixth runner. That sixth girl was…

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 9 +23 +26 MIXC vs. REALITY Another region where the projected qualifiers matched the output heading to MIS. Still, there were doubts heading into the weekend. The Macomb Dakota Girls needed a quality effort and a few boys teams were in the advancement conversation. The Utica Eisenhower Boys came through in a major way.

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 2 +19 +23 MIXC vs. REALITY Team-wise, the qualifiers went as projected. The boys’ race was so open, that I expected one would be incorrect. Midland, the most consistent team in the state, held serve close to home. Milford handled the trek north and continued their late-season run of county and league titles with a state qualifier.

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 19 +22 +29 Region 28 +27 +32 Average +25 +31 MIXC vs. REALITY All the team qualifier projections were correct, save for one: the Rogers City Girls. Commonly, it’s Avery Langlois defying the numbers, this time her teammates joined her. Don’t get it twisted – Langlois still performed well, earning her third straight All-Region honor.

The first qualifier since 2020 for the SMCC boys 5 in a row for the SMCC girls Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 27 +15 +18 Region 6 +15 +16 Average +15 +17 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections were fairly accurate, correct on all of the qualifying teams (and pretty much correct on all of the D3 boys’ qualifiers). But that of course doesn’t tell the whole tale of the day, as there are those that had a memorable performance, such as:

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 15 +18 +20 Region 30 +17 +21 Average +18 +21 MIXC vs. REALITY The Region 15 Girls race was wild. The projections thought Shepherd would be slotted in fourth, but the Bluejays would have such a great chance of placing four in the top-20, that they’d end up being favorites to advance. The home team did do that, but found their way into 3rd place.

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 25 +23 +23 Region 35 +22 +24 Average +23 +24 MIXC vs. REALITY Region 25’s Girls race was another one of those chaotic ones and it lived up to the billing. Six girls teams were thought to have a chance, and three from that six advanced (just not the ones projected 😉). Saginaw Valley Lutheran…

A beautiful fall day in Royal Oak. Thank you to the Egli family for the pic! Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 36 +11 +11 Region 7 +9 +14 Average +10 +13 MIXC vs. REALITY It was an even split with regard to the projections vs. reality. Projecting the team qualifiers was entirely accurate for one race of each gender and one race of each division.