Luke Gublo
@mtutiger.bsky.social
Running, Baseball, Political Observations (views my own)
I was referring to the polling error in NJ...
I don't think we are looking at D+14, but doesn't mean there isn't a signal here either
I don't think we are looking at D+14, but doesn't mean there isn't a signal here either
November 19, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I was referring to the polling error in NJ...
I don't think we are looking at D+14, but doesn't mean there isn't a signal here either
I don't think we are looking at D+14, but doesn't mean there isn't a signal here either
Oh I know you aren't, just seems like others are
November 19, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Oh I know you aren't, just seems like others are
Don't know how you can look at what happened in NJ a couple of weeks ago and just automatically dismiss polling that doesn't confirm priors
November 19, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Don't know how you can look at what happened in NJ a couple of weeks ago and just automatically dismiss polling that doesn't confirm priors
Given what happened in New Jersey, think it's worth keeping an open mind... People are pretty angry right now
November 19, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Given what happened in New Jersey, think it's worth keeping an open mind... People are pretty angry right now
If he's really at 20%, he's probably losing a lot of ground in The Valley
November 17, 2025 at 1:42 AM
If he's really at 20%, he's probably losing a lot of ground in The Valley
I am with you... the fact that a national political leader was willing to risk or further inflame disunity over a parochial turf war in his home city/state does a disservice to the party as a whole
Especially with Jeffries as Speaker, the party desperately needs someone who isn't from NYS as well.
Especially with Jeffries as Speaker, the party desperately needs someone who isn't from NYS as well.
November 11, 2025 at 3:13 AM
I am with you... the fact that a national political leader was willing to risk or further inflame disunity over a parochial turf war in his home city/state does a disservice to the party as a whole
Especially with Jeffries as Speaker, the party desperately needs someone who isn't from NYS as well.
Especially with Jeffries as Speaker, the party desperately needs someone who isn't from NYS as well.
Granted we don't know how future elections will unfold, but this demonstrates a flaw in assuming trends will just continue on in perpetuity with demographic groups without considering actual policy outcomes
October 30, 2025 at 2:48 AM
Granted we don't know how future elections will unfold, but this demonstrates a flaw in assuming trends will just continue on in perpetuity with demographic groups without considering actual policy outcomes
Not saying there is an epochal shift happening under the hood, but anecdotes from the Times may not be the best way to conclude that nothing is changing.
October 26, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Not saying there is an epochal shift happening under the hood, but anecdotes from the Times may not be the best way to conclude that nothing is changing.
"Fuck you, make me" has a pretty decent track record with this government too
October 25, 2025 at 1:41 AM
"Fuck you, make me" has a pretty decent track record with this government too
Was always foolish to write him off after the Emerson poll a few months ago... administration isn't getting any more popular
October 19, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Was always foolish to write him off after the Emerson poll a few months ago... administration isn't getting any more popular
Call his bluff... Make him host matches in Shreveport
October 15, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Call his bluff... Make him host matches in Shreveport
A long, unpaid vacation to the Joliet Arsenal.... Incredible lol
October 11, 2025 at 7:19 PM
A long, unpaid vacation to the Joliet Arsenal.... Incredible lol
Also with some "Tyler in 'The Menu'" energy as well
October 7, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Also with some "Tyler in 'The Menu'" energy as well
The second point, incidentally, is why Kimmel ended up winning (and Sinclair/Nexstar losing) in the end IMO... Disney held way more leverage than was acknowledged at the beginning and ended up using it
October 6, 2025 at 3:31 PM
The second point, incidentally, is why Kimmel ended up winning (and Sinclair/Nexstar losing) in the end IMO... Disney held way more leverage than was acknowledged at the beginning and ended up using it
1) question how effective any of it will be given the political realities on the ground.... 2) this is a dying medium that she is doubling down on
October 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
1) question how effective any of it will be given the political realities on the ground.... 2) this is a dying medium that she is doubling down on
Sounds like Jerry Lundegaard trying to explain away the VIN numbers to the fiance guy in Fargo lol
October 6, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Sounds like Jerry Lundegaard trying to explain away the VIN numbers to the fiance guy in Fargo lol
Wild framing as well given that almost every other question asked in the poll is bad for this administration...
October 1, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Wild framing as well given that almost every other question asked in the poll is bad for this administration...
I don't know if it influences votes, but the bailouts are always a net negative... It's just a matter of how much
September 24, 2025 at 10:37 PM
I don't know if it influences votes, but the bailouts are always a net negative... It's just a matter of how much
Law of diminishing returns tho... This happened once, farmers didn't like it the first time, they probably won't like it now
September 24, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Law of diminishing returns tho... This happened once, farmers didn't like it the first time, they probably won't like it now
How this wasn't the conventional wisdom from day one I'll never understand...
September 22, 2025 at 11:50 PM
How this wasn't the conventional wisdom from day one I'll never understand...
I know he's not an actual D, but Dan Osborn in Nebraska managed to perform extremely well in 2024 with a relatively pro-choice position. I assume Klein did not consider this in his analysis
September 20, 2025 at 1:32 PM
I know he's not an actual D, but Dan Osborn in Nebraska managed to perform extremely well in 2024 with a relatively pro-choice position. I assume Klein did not consider this in his analysis
No kidding, it's not like not passing a Clean CR would be the first precedent to fall this week lol
September 19, 2025 at 9:20 PM
No kidding, it's not like not passing a Clean CR would be the first precedent to fall this week lol
Well, times have changed, Conor.... it's on the party in power to gather the votes that it needs.
September 19, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Well, times have changed, Conor.... it's on the party in power to gather the votes that it needs.
As far as I can tell, the GOP hasn't really cut the Dems into a negotiation in any serious way despite needing their votes. Which seems to matter a lot in this discussion.
September 19, 2025 at 9:15 PM
As far as I can tell, the GOP hasn't really cut the Dems into a negotiation in any serious way despite needing their votes. Which seems to matter a lot in this discussion.
1) The average voter isn't necessarily up on that nuance. 2) That would suggest that the GOP, who controls all levers of government, should probably start negotiating with those who can get it to a 60 vote threshold
September 19, 2025 at 9:13 PM
1) The average voter isn't necessarily up on that nuance. 2) That would suggest that the GOP, who controls all levers of government, should probably start negotiating with those who can get it to a 60 vote threshold