Mike Konczal
@mtkonczal.bsky.social
Econ person. Director of Policy and Research, @economicsecurityproject.org. Former NEC. #Rstats, dad, Chicago Guy. mikekonczal.com
It seems that basically nobody likes this idea? It is a bad one, but usually there's some case. I wonder if they go through with it.
November 8, 2025 at 10:25 PM
It seems that basically nobody likes this idea? It is a bad one, but usually there's some case. I wonder if they go through with it.
We pull from the leading thinking across the schools of thought on affordability (e,g, social insurance, populism, antimonopoly, and abundance) and shows how they all do contribute to finding the best answers.
And none will do it alone; the answer won't just be Abundance. /5
And none will do it alone; the answer won't just be Abundance. /5
October 22, 2025 at 5:16 PM
We pull from the leading thinking across the schools of thought on affordability (e,g, social insurance, populism, antimonopoly, and abundance) and shows how they all do contribute to finding the best answers.
And none will do it alone; the answer won't just be Abundance. /5
And none will do it alone; the answer won't just be Abundance. /5
With markets, corporate concentration and restrictive zoning each cost households an estimated thousands of dollars each year.
Estimates running that high show how poorly our markets are structured. Our Framework digs into the major arguments on how this drives costs. /3
Estimates running that high show how poorly our markets are structured. Our Framework digs into the major arguments on how this drives costs. /3
October 22, 2025 at 5:15 PM
With markets, corporate concentration and restrictive zoning each cost households an estimated thousands of dollars each year.
Estimates running that high show how poorly our markets are structured. Our Framework digs into the major arguments on how this drives costs. /3
Estimates running that high show how poorly our markets are structured. Our Framework digs into the major arguments on how this drives costs. /3
There's good reason so much analysis on affordability is done sector-by-sector. But by stepping back, you can see commonalities across the biggest contributors, and that it's driven by bad market structures and mismatched spending.
Or: broken markets and broken incomes. /2
Or: broken markets and broken incomes. /2
October 22, 2025 at 5:15 PM
There's good reason so much analysis on affordability is done sector-by-sector. But by stepping back, you can see commonalities across the biggest contributors, and that it's driven by bad market structures and mismatched spending.
Or: broken markets and broken incomes. /2
Or: broken markets and broken incomes. /2
Last week California passed a big upzoning law, as well as laws pushing back on pharmacy PBMs and surveillance pricing.
The former is a YIMBY priority and the latter populist priorities. Often carried by the same legislators. The policy conflict between the two is overstated.
The former is a YIMBY priority and the latter populist priorities. Often carried by the same legislators. The policy conflict between the two is overstated.
October 12, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Last week California passed a big upzoning law, as well as laws pushing back on pharmacy PBMs and surveillance pricing.
The former is a YIMBY priority and the latter populist priorities. Often carried by the same legislators. The policy conflict between the two is overstated.
The former is a YIMBY priority and the latter populist priorities. Often carried by the same legislators. The policy conflict between the two is overstated.
I for-real love Fumio Hayashi's 1981 microfoundations of Tobin's Q. I love Q from my finance days, and do feel like I get it more now.
Plus it's an elaborate argument to do what you just wanted to do anyway (take the average), and what else is the human condition than that? /8
Plus it's an elaborate argument to do what you just wanted to do anyway (take the average), and what else is the human condition than that? /8
October 3, 2025 at 7:54 PM
I for-real love Fumio Hayashi's 1981 microfoundations of Tobin's Q. I love Q from my finance days, and do feel like I get it more now.
Plus it's an elaborate argument to do what you just wanted to do anyway (take the average), and what else is the human condition than that? /8
Plus it's an elaborate argument to do what you just wanted to do anyway (take the average), and what else is the human condition than that? /8
I didn't realize that having proper microfoundations for the Modigliani-Miller theorem was a missing part of my life, but it was?
I was fine with a vague milk and cream (or better, a bottle of ketchup) analogy from finance class and a lame arbitrage proof, but now it's on solid ground. 😎 /7
I was fine with a vague milk and cream (or better, a bottle of ketchup) analogy from finance class and a lame arbitrage proof, but now it's on solid ground. 😎 /7
October 3, 2025 at 7:43 PM
I didn't realize that having proper microfoundations for the Modigliani-Miller theorem was a missing part of my life, but it was?
I was fine with a vague milk and cream (or better, a bottle of ketchup) analogy from finance class and a lame arbitrage proof, but now it's on solid ground. 😎 /7
I was fine with a vague milk and cream (or better, a bottle of ketchup) analogy from finance class and a lame arbitrage proof, but now it's on solid ground. 😎 /7
Me: Can you believe we're going deep on CES production functions? There was this big fight 11 years ago, I wrote about it online, over whether that sigma value could be greater than 1, after this French...
Classmates: Oh really? [Gen-Z stare saying “ok boomer-millennial”] /6
Classmates: Oh really? [Gen-Z stare saying “ok boomer-millennial”] /6
October 3, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Me: Can you believe we're going deep on CES production functions? There was this big fight 11 years ago, I wrote about it online, over whether that sigma value could be greater than 1, after this French...
Classmates: Oh really? [Gen-Z stare saying “ok boomer-millennial”] /6
Classmates: Oh really? [Gen-Z stare saying “ok boomer-millennial”] /6
Brutal from Larry Summers. I got a deeper dive below.
October 1, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Brutal from Larry Summers. I got a deeper dive below.
Oh no! It's jobs day and I need all 250 subindustries that are in the Current Employment Survey Diffusion Index.
We got you.
We got you.
October 1, 2025 at 2:15 AM
Oh no! It's jobs day and I need all 250 subindustries that are in the Current Employment Survey Diffusion Index.
We got you.
We got you.
Folks we are live. Still very initial version, but the first thing I actually got around to pushing to CRAN.
pkgdown website coming eventually (I know I know).
pkgdown website coming eventually (I know I know).
October 1, 2025 at 2:15 AM
Folks we are live. Still very initial version, but the first thing I actually got around to pushing to CRAN.
pkgdown website coming eventually (I know I know).
pkgdown website coming eventually (I know I know).
Here's the genuine problem. There's a lot of bottom-up arguments Miran makes for r* = 0%, each a good deal outside of consensus but interesting.
But there's also another thing that could make someone argue r* = 0%, as show in the algebra below (all discussed in the piece).
But there's also another thing that could make someone argue r* = 0%, as show in the algebra below (all discussed in the piece).
September 29, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Here's the genuine problem. There's a lot of bottom-up arguments Miran makes for r* = 0%, each a good deal outside of consensus but interesting.
But there's also another thing that could make someone argue r* = 0%, as show in the algebra below (all discussed in the piece).
But there's also another thing that could make someone argue r* = 0%, as show in the algebra below (all discussed in the piece).
It did well. The code compiled, and it was about 80% accurate (my handwriting didn't help). It was more I wanted to avoid the boredom of getting the main thing down; I can fix errors.
It was confused a bit in earlier things I have done, likely because Quarto is still relatively new and evolving.
It was confused a bit in earlier things I have done, likely because Quarto is still relatively new and evolving.
September 25, 2025 at 3:35 AM
It did well. The code compiled, and it was about 80% accurate (my handwriting didn't help). It was more I wanted to avoid the boredom of getting the main thing down; I can fix errors.
It was confused a bit in earlier things I have done, likely because Quarto is still relatively new and evolving.
It was confused a bit in earlier things I have done, likely because Quarto is still relatively new and evolving.
Also has EconBlueSky had a Frank Ramsey phase yet? I went and read his savings paper and, besides being brilliant decades ahead,
John Maynard Keynes just shows up out of nowhere with the intuitive marginal reasoning for the Euler equation. What!?!
This concludes consumption. /5
John Maynard Keynes just shows up out of nowhere with the intuitive marginal reasoning for the Euler equation. What!?!
This concludes consumption. /5
September 25, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Also has EconBlueSky had a Frank Ramsey phase yet? I went and read his savings paper and, besides being brilliant decades ahead,
John Maynard Keynes just shows up out of nowhere with the intuitive marginal reasoning for the Euler equation. What!?!
This concludes consumption. /5
John Maynard Keynes just shows up out of nowhere with the intuitive marginal reasoning for the Euler equation. What!?!
This concludes consumption. /5
Homework 1, question 1, part 1: Put. it. straight. into. my. veins.
And cry all you want, I’m having AI turn this into LaTeX. (This falls under the sensible “use as assistant” class policy for grad students.) I don’t pulp my own paper; I'm not coding raw calculus into LaTeX either. /4
And cry all you want, I’m having AI turn this into LaTeX. (This falls under the sensible “use as assistant” class policy for grad students.) I don’t pulp my own paper; I'm not coding raw calculus into LaTeX either. /4
September 25, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Homework 1, question 1, part 1: Put. it. straight. into. my. veins.
And cry all you want, I’m having AI turn this into LaTeX. (This falls under the sensible “use as assistant” class policy for grad students.) I don’t pulp my own paper; I'm not coding raw calculus into LaTeX either. /4
And cry all you want, I’m having AI turn this into LaTeX. (This falls under the sensible “use as assistant” class policy for grad students.) I don’t pulp my own paper; I'm not coding raw calculus into LaTeX either. /4
The Trump admin/surrogate argument that the labor market is just bad for foreign-born workers is a really soft talking point, vulnerable to attack.
Labor market is slowing broadly, but to isolate the effects on native-born have to go into the microdata with a delay.
Labor market is slowing broadly, but to isolate the effects on native-born have to go into the microdata with a delay.
September 24, 2025 at 7:12 PM
The Trump admin/surrogate argument that the labor market is just bad for foreign-born workers is a really soft talking point, vulnerable to attack.
Labor market is slowing broadly, but to isolate the effects on native-born have to go into the microdata with a delay.
Labor market is slowing broadly, but to isolate the effects on native-born have to go into the microdata with a delay.
As CEA director, Miran likely signed off on Trump's recent comical budget claim that GDP will be 3%+ in 2026-2027 and longer-term 2.9%.
This is far outside the ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, the FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in the FOMC projections tomorrow?
This is far outside the ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, the FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in the FOMC projections tomorrow?
September 17, 2025 at 12:14 AM
As CEA director, Miran likely signed off on Trump's recent comical budget claim that GDP will be 3%+ in 2026-2027 and longer-term 2.9%.
This is far outside the ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, the FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in the FOMC projections tomorrow?
This is far outside the ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, the FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in the FOMC projections tomorrow?
Here's the fun, topsy-turvy, world of "it's priced in."
Can a September cut turn the August bad jobs number around? That's why Trump is rushing Miran and threatening Lisa Cook.
But all through August markets priced a Sept cut in the ~90% range. The cut was already there for this bad number!
Can a September cut turn the August bad jobs number around? That's why Trump is rushing Miran and threatening Lisa Cook.
But all through August markets priced a Sept cut in the ~90% range. The cut was already there for this bad number!
September 5, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Here's the fun, topsy-turvy, world of "it's priced in."
Can a September cut turn the August bad jobs number around? That's why Trump is rushing Miran and threatening Lisa Cook.
But all through August markets priced a Sept cut in the ~90% range. The cut was already there for this bad number!
Can a September cut turn the August bad jobs number around? That's why Trump is rushing Miran and threatening Lisa Cook.
But all through August markets priced a Sept cut in the ~90% range. The cut was already there for this bad number!
Construction just lost jobs this month, after gaining 0 the prior three months. Here's a breakdown.
September 5, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Construction just lost jobs this month, after gaining 0 the prior three months. Here's a breakdown.
Here's an interesting find. From the higher-quality CES data, men have lost 56,000 jobs over the past 4 months, with women gaining 76% of the jobs in 2025 (compared to ~50% normally).
Trump's effort to bring back men jobs with tariffs has backfired spectacularly, causing those industries to shrink.
Trump's effort to bring back men jobs with tariffs has backfired spectacularly, causing those industries to shrink.
September 5, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Here's an interesting find. From the higher-quality CES data, men have lost 56,000 jobs over the past 4 months, with women gaining 76% of the jobs in 2025 (compared to ~50% normally).
Trump's effort to bring back men jobs with tariffs has backfired spectacularly, causing those industries to shrink.
Trump's effort to bring back men jobs with tariffs has backfired spectacularly, causing those industries to shrink.
I didn't catch the unemployment rate was 4.2479% last month, which makes the firing even more erratic, as that's as generous as the rounding gods could ever be.
It's 0.0021% away from the accurate "highest unemployment since 2021" headline (as journalists just go to 1 digit).
It's 0.0021% away from the accurate "highest unemployment since 2021" headline (as journalists just go to 1 digit).
September 2, 2025 at 6:59 PM
I didn't catch the unemployment rate was 4.2479% last month, which makes the firing even more erratic, as that's as generous as the rounding gods could ever be.
It's 0.0021% away from the accurate "highest unemployment since 2021" headline (as journalists just go to 1 digit).
It's 0.0021% away from the accurate "highest unemployment since 2021" headline (as journalists just go to 1 digit).
Macro thing I learned today with new PCE. The slowdown in consumer spending (which I did know about) is being driven by (core) services. I had assumed it was a lot of goods timing, but it's the much more broad and worrying services category.
Anyone else see writing about this? Need to dig in more.
Anyone else see writing about this? Need to dig in more.
August 29, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Macro thing I learned today with new PCE. The slowdown in consumer spending (which I did know about) is being driven by (core) services. I had assumed it was a lot of goods timing, but it's the much more broad and worrying services category.
Anyone else see writing about this? Need to dig in more.
Anyone else see writing about this? Need to dig in more.
Not that it matters, but a tell that even as Lisa Cook is considered a more dovish FOMC vote (see attached from BofA in 2024), she's still targeted by Trump.
She has normal, mainstream concerns about tariffs and inflation; that independence from Trump's party line makes her a threat to him. /1
She has normal, mainstream concerns about tariffs and inflation; that independence from Trump's party line makes her a threat to him. /1
August 26, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Not that it matters, but a tell that even as Lisa Cook is considered a more dovish FOMC vote (see attached from BofA in 2024), she's still targeted by Trump.
She has normal, mainstream concerns about tariffs and inflation; that independence from Trump's party line makes her a threat to him. /1
She has normal, mainstream concerns about tariffs and inflation; that independence from Trump's party line makes her a threat to him. /1