Max
@mshpil13.bsky.social
| Election Analysis |
DMV & MI State Local Politics
DMV & MI State Local Politics
The primary she’ll get past no problem. Just the general that im a bit worried about. Something to keep an eye out for if there are more high quality polls over the next 6 months. Don’t want to just rely on the belief of a nationwide blue wave will automatically shift all races to safe B forecasts.
November 14, 2025 at 7:33 PM
The primary she’ll get past no problem. Just the general that im a bit worried about. Something to keep an eye out for if there are more high quality polls over the next 6 months. Don’t want to just rely on the belief of a nationwide blue wave will automatically shift all races to safe B forecasts.
But having a well known former dem turned independent splitting the vote opens up scenarios where a REP could win even with the overall generic ballot being very high nationally for DEM. Would be interested to see if there is a concentrated campaign to get him to drop out of the race
November 14, 2025 at 6:42 PM
But having a well known former dem turned independent splitting the vote opens up scenarios where a REP could win even with the overall generic ballot being very high nationally for DEM. Would be interested to see if there is a concentrated campaign to get him to drop out of the race
Agree about the manipulation of the perception of the race from dubious polling.
November 14, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Agree about the manipulation of the perception of the race from dubious polling.
Not trying to be adversarial. I hope you’re right. Just saying that folks should not be complacent with a race that should otherwise be a slam dunk. Tariffs move the dial a little bit but there is a contingent of voters who that doesn’t make a difference for or are disconnected from reality
November 14, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Not trying to be adversarial. I hope you’re right. Just saying that folks should not be complacent with a race that should otherwise be a slam dunk. Tariffs move the dial a little bit but there is a contingent of voters who that doesn’t make a difference for or are disconnected from reality
Different dynamics and different state. Weird things could happen with a third candidate who could split the dem vote. Benson is a great candidate and she had a super strong electoral over performance in 2022. But the takeaway is that this race could get really dicey
November 14, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Different dynamics and different state. Weird things could happen with a third candidate who could split the dem vote. Benson is a great candidate and she had a super strong electoral over performance in 2022. But the takeaway is that this race could get really dicey
Idk this might be an accurate reflection of where this race is at the moment
November 14, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Idk this might be an accurate reflection of where this race is at the moment
We can’t have a single week of good vibes can we
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
We can’t have a single week of good vibes can we
how are 18-25 year old men have drastically higher favorables for teachers unions and socialism? weird poll
November 6, 2025 at 9:44 PM
how are 18-25 year old men have drastically higher favorables for teachers unions and socialism? weird poll
Anyone have any info on Hart Research? This seems like a promising poll
November 6, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Anyone have any info on Hart Research? This seems like a promising poll
Coming from a Michigander it’s for sure McMorrow or El-Sayed. I’m not sure yet for me it depends at the end of the day on electability. But outside of that I prefer El-Sayed on policy
November 6, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Coming from a Michigander it’s for sure McMorrow or El-Sayed. I’m not sure yet for me it depends at the end of the day on electability. But outside of that I prefer El-Sayed on policy
I think we might be missing someone else?
November 5, 2025 at 2:53 AM
I think we might be missing someone else?
Duggan needs to drop out this is ridiculous
October 24, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Duggan needs to drop out this is ridiculous
Are there ratings for these polls and poll groups? Any known political affiliations?
September 22, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Are there ratings for these polls and poll groups? Any known political affiliations?
This is fascinating use of polling that has no real world application
September 13, 2025 at 7:58 PM
This is fascinating use of polling that has no real world application
Does this map consider redistricting in Texas, California, Utah, Indiana, Florida and Missouri?
September 10, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Does this map consider redistricting in Texas, California, Utah, Indiana, Florida and Missouri?
?? Am I missing something? I feel like there are other things to call him out on like homelessness and California’s housing crisis. Queer rights is one of his strong suits imao
August 21, 2025 at 3:08 PM
?? Am I missing something? I feel like there are other things to call him out on like homelessness and California’s housing crisis. Queer rights is one of his strong suits imao
There is a senate race and a gubernatorial race in 2026 for TX. Both need to be competitive to have a shot in Texas. Talarico should be a shoe in for one of them. O’Rourke should be given another chance for the other. But coordination is needed
August 19, 2025 at 8:56 PM
There is a senate race and a gubernatorial race in 2026 for TX. Both need to be competitive to have a shot in Texas. Talarico should be a shoe in for one of them. O’Rourke should be given another chance for the other. But coordination is needed
Pleasantly surprised to see @aoc.bsky.social so high up.
💡it’s important to note that such early polling often just reflects name recognition and that much can change between now and 2028. Think 2026 midterm or any Trump related crises. But this does showcase AOC’s growing influence in the party
💡it’s important to note that such early polling often just reflects name recognition and that much can change between now and 2028. Think 2026 midterm or any Trump related crises. But this does showcase AOC’s growing influence in the party
April 17, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Pleasantly surprised to see @aoc.bsky.social so high up.
💡it’s important to note that such early polling often just reflects name recognition and that much can change between now and 2028. Think 2026 midterm or any Trump related crises. But this does showcase AOC’s growing influence in the party
💡it’s important to note that such early polling often just reflects name recognition and that much can change between now and 2028. Think 2026 midterm or any Trump related crises. But this does showcase AOC’s growing influence in the party