Dr Maria Shagina
@mshagina.bsky.social
Diamond-Brown Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy, IISS | Ex @FIIA_fi and UniZurich | Economic statecraft, sanctions & energy.
One rouble to leave - one billion to return. Sounds fair!
February 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
One rouble to leave - one billion to return. Sounds fair!
I didn't mean it as a bargain. Leveraging = using the powers to seize the assets
February 18, 2025 at 4:12 PM
I didn't mean it as a bargain. Leveraging = using the powers to seize the assets
3. Entourage: despite Waltz and Rubio's rhetoric to give Ukraine more leverage ahead of negotiations, it's Trump who will define the course. Bessent will support sanctions if Trump tells him so. Kellogg is a fiercely loyal guy whose peace plan will not deviate from where Trump's head is.
January 22, 2025 at 9:14 PM
3. Entourage: despite Waltz and Rubio's rhetoric to give Ukraine more leverage ahead of negotiations, it's Trump who will define the course. Bessent will support sanctions if Trump tells him so. Kellogg is a fiercely loyal guy whose peace plan will not deviate from where Trump's head is.
2. Sequencing: Trump wants to use sanctions *after* the negotiations with Putin kick off. The trouble is that without sanctions pressure *before* the negotiations Putin doesn't feel the need to negotiate in the first place, let alone to concede to its maximalist objectives on Ukraine.
January 22, 2025 at 9:14 PM
2. Sequencing: Trump wants to use sanctions *after* the negotiations with Putin kick off. The trouble is that without sanctions pressure *before* the negotiations Putin doesn't feel the need to negotiate in the first place, let alone to concede to its maximalist objectives on Ukraine.
1. Endgame: Trump isn't interested in ensuring a long-term peace. He wants to "stop the killing" - how it's done doesn't matter to him, as long as he looks strong. Putin isn't interested in a ceasefire, but in redrawing the European map based on Russia's spheres of influence.
January 22, 2025 at 9:14 PM
1. Endgame: Trump isn't interested in ensuring a long-term peace. He wants to "stop the killing" - how it's done doesn't matter to him, as long as he looks strong. Putin isn't interested in a ceasefire, but in redrawing the European map based on Russia's spheres of influence.