For those very reasons it shouldn't just be released at the AGM. Generally Netcall has the feel of a dishonest and greedy management. I'm out based on that alone.

Doesn't help when you have a greedy management team trousering a large part of the returns

mrmisanthropeblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/21/m...

I don't think low single digit growth is the new normal either, but nor do I think 27% growth is (something around 10% seems a fair assumption to me). If the update in November is 25% growth, it tells me that expecting consistent growth of 27% is far too optimistic.

I'd also add the broker forecasts tend to be optimistic, as you have alluded too, so being significantly more optimistic than brokers is a risky place to be.

So what is your assessment of long term growth based on beyond the historical growth rate? Recent updates may well be a blip, but if forecasts are even remotely realistic, you'll need much higher growth than 27% to get back to your valuation.

Recent results & updates also seem to support this. The question anyone buying based on a 27% growth rate has to ask themselves is what do you supports a thesis that the growth can be much better than recent results & management forecasts? What is your informational edge? Those are the key questions

Go back to when Kainos first started implementing Workday & Workday products many years ago now. A lot of Workday uptake has taken place in the areas that Kainos operates in. The opportunity for further growth is therefore reduced. Management appear to agree hence the broker forecasts.

I don't take the broker forecasts as gospel. However, you've projected historic growth for something that has grown rapidly & is now established. Brokers have access to management to inform their forecasts. So why would you completely ignore them, particularly when they have a much lower growth rate

Your call ultimately.The question that I'd be asking myself is what do I know that justifies me using a higher growth rate than other forecasts. What is the growth rate at which your MOS is no longer there? If that's below broker forecasts, fine. If not, you likely don't have as big a MOS as thought

I don't like the Workday valuation either but ultimately Kinos is only ever going to be as strong as the underlying Workday business. 27% growth, 3% terminal after 10 years is too optimistic IMO. Interesting that forecasts on SharePad for next 3 years are nowhere near 27% so can't see how 27% is met

Interesting write up, one that popped up on my screen but I didn't invest in. Essentially I think if you like this, Workday is what you should own. Nothing to stop Workday taking the bolt on services in house. Can't see a case for 27% growth over next 10 years given software is well established

Whilst the Oasis members were once working class, they certainly aren't now. The Guardian has some good journalism but I find pieces like that to be self indulgent & pretentious. The reality is that 'band that a lot of people like reunite & this is good' but that won't garner many clicks!

Last but not least, if you're interested in discussing all things investing, personal finance & financial independence with other regular people who are on the same journey, join a #SIGnet group. Find out more via @ShareSocUK

Any thoughts and/or sensible discussion welcome.

#investing #FIRE #StockMarket

Resources mentioned include:

- The excellent analysis software @ShareScope
- Some of the best UK analysis by @MaynardPaton
- Incredible study by @AltaFoxCapital on the Makings of a Multibagger

I also recommend that anyone interested in FI(RE) check out the @Monevator blog

- Why asset managers could have a tailwind (I hold #IPX #LIO #LTI )
- Why building wealth in ISAs helps to support smaller British companies & build financial resiliance, & shouldn't be penalised by double taxation by uninformed envying politicians (take note @therestismoney )

We also talk about my winners & losers including:
- Why I think #DNLM is a quality retailer
- Does #YOU have a moat
- Why I still hold #SYS1
- Disaster at #MIND
- Why #SDI reaction may be overdone
- Can #SUP shrug off the disposable vape ban
- Is #FAN a slow, steady compounder

I have my own spreadsheet set up but quite a few available online for free. The article below is a good introduction.

einvestingforbeginners.com/reverse-dcf-...

Good post, very easy to follow. I follow a very similar approach but I have come to favour a reverse DCF, which looks at average FCF but then works back from that to tell you what growth rate is implied by the current share price. Just removes one more metric that can be manipulated.