Mott Smith
@mottsmith.bsky.social
Co-Founder of Amped Kitchens (http://ampedkitchens.com). Board Chair, Council of Infill Builders. Vice Chair, LA City Small Business Comm. Adjunct prof of Real Estate Dev, USC's Price School. Personal account. Posts are solely mine. Follow ≠ endorsement.
1) If you include ED1, you credit ULA for the ED1 boost & make ULA’s harms look smaller. Ward & Phillips flagged this, explained why the bias is ambiguous, and excluded ED1 to avoid mixing policy shocks. A good-faith rebuttal would have engaged that choice, not pretended they didn’t address it.
September 8, 2025 at 4:31 AM
1) If you include ED1, you credit ULA for the ED1 boost & make ULA’s harms look smaller. Ward & Phillips flagged this, explained why the bias is ambiguous, and excluded ED1 to avoid mixing policy shocks. A good-faith rebuttal would have engaged that choice, not pretended they didn’t address it.
Or the false claim that development activity in L.A. has increased since ULA. It hasn’t. They point to entitlements, but most entitlements never become buildings. Permits--the true measure of progress--have nosedived.
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Or the false claim that development activity in L.A. has increased since ULA. It hasn’t. They point to entitlements, but most entitlements never become buildings. Permits--the true measure of progress--have nosedived.
Case in point: Ward & Phillips’ Taxing Tomorrow found that flaws in ULA (e.g. no exemption for new development) discourage mixed-income projects that produce affordable units. The result: a net loss of affordable housing production post-ULA.
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Case in point: Ward & Phillips’ Taxing Tomorrow found that flaws in ULA (e.g. no exemption for new development) discourage mixed-income projects that produce affordable units. The result: a net loss of affordable housing production post-ULA.
My colleague Mike Manville and I, in "Unintended Consequences," estimated this slowdown would significantly erode property tax growth.
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
My colleague Mike Manville and I, in "Unintended Consequences," estimated this slowdown would significantly erode property tax growth.
Second, property transactions in L.A. City fell sharply vs. the rest of the County -- a collapse not explained by interest rates or national trends.
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Second, property transactions in L.A. City fell sharply vs. the rest of the County -- a collapse not explained by interest rates or national trends.
By 2025, three new studies had arrived with real data: two from UCLA’s Lewis Center and one from UCI/UCSD/Harvard. Independent, rigorous, transparent.
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
By 2025, three new studies had arrived with real data: two from UCLA’s Lewis Center and one from UCI/UCSD/Harvard. Independent, rigorous, transparent.
Even though revenues were falling far short and no housing had yet been funded, they were quick to conclude “Los Angeles voters made the right decision” in approving a very complicated law few fully understood.
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Even though revenues were falling far short and no housing had yet been funded, they were quick to conclude “Los Angeles voters made the right decision” in approving a very complicated law few fully understood.
But even a year ago, ULA's early lack of performance didn't seem to mute the Oxy advocate/authors' enthusiasm. In 2024, after just one year under ULA, several of them published another paper (also through Oxy) declaring that ULA was “already a success.”
t.co/12l09DdRnL
t.co/12l09DdRnL
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
But even a year ago, ULA's early lack of performance didn't seem to mute the Oxy advocate/authors' enthusiasm. In 2024, after just one year under ULA, several of them published another paper (also through Oxy) declaring that ULA was “already a success.”
t.co/12l09DdRnL
t.co/12l09DdRnL
That paper said ULA would:
– raise nearly $1B a year,
– barely affect commercial real estate because developers would “adjust,” and
– produce a “much larger number” of affordable homes than those lost to the tax’s impact.
– raise nearly $1B a year,
– barely affect commercial real estate because developers would “adjust,” and
– produce a “much larger number” of affordable homes than those lost to the tax’s impact.
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
That paper said ULA would:
– raise nearly $1B a year,
– barely affect commercial real estate because developers would “adjust,” and
– produce a “much larger number” of affordable homes than those lost to the tax’s impact.
– raise nearly $1B a year,
– barely affect commercial real estate because developers would “adjust,” and
– produce a “much larger number” of affordable homes than those lost to the tax’s impact.
To understand why, let’s rewind. In 2022, just before voters passed ULA, some of the same advocate/authors -- incl. UCLA Lewis Center’s @shanedphillips.bsky.social -- published an analysis through the @uclalewiscenter.bsky.social .
t.co/fhbo3UOv4H
t.co/fhbo3UOv4H
September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
To understand why, let’s rewind. In 2022, just before voters passed ULA, some of the same advocate/authors -- incl. UCLA Lewis Center’s @shanedphillips.bsky.social -- published an analysis through the @uclalewiscenter.bsky.social .
t.co/fhbo3UOv4H
t.co/fhbo3UOv4H
The coalition behind Measure ULA just released a report attacking UCLA research on the tax. They’re claiming it “debunks” the research. It doesn’t even come close.
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September 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
The coalition behind Measure ULA just released a report attacking UCLA research on the tax. They’re claiming it “debunks” the research. It doesn’t even come close.
🧵
🧵
For those curious how steep transfer taxes like L.A.'s Measure ULA and Santa Monica's Measure GS impact permitting, look at what happened in Santa Monica after Measure GS was enacted in 2023.
2023: 593 units permitted
2024: 30 units permitted
Poorly designed transfer taxes kill housing.
2023: 593 units permitted
2024: 30 units permitted
Poorly designed transfer taxes kill housing.
April 23, 2025 at 8:50 PM
For those curious how steep transfer taxes like L.A.'s Measure ULA and Santa Monica's Measure GS impact permitting, look at what happened in Santa Monica after Measure GS was enacted in 2023.
2023: 593 units permitted
2024: 30 units permitted
Poorly designed transfer taxes kill housing.
2023: 593 units permitted
2024: 30 units permitted
Poorly designed transfer taxes kill housing.
On the implication that the ULA sales dip is temporary: This is unlikely. In our paper, we surveyed 10 transfer tax studies from other jurisdictions. Nearly all showed reduced sales volumes after the tax was implemented. ULA is a high tax and we would expect large effects.
April 5, 2025 at 2:22 PM
On the implication that the ULA sales dip is temporary: This is unlikely. In our paper, we surveyed 10 transfer tax studies from other jurisdictions. Nearly all showed reduced sales volumes after the tax was implemented. ULA is a high tax and we would expect large effects.
Projects with ULA funding commitments:
- 9 projects
- 795 units
- Only 4 are under construction (started before ULA)
- Others have not pulled permits
- Avg cost $716K/unit
- Avg ULA subsidy $69K/unit
- 6 are Prop. HHH
- ULA is helping provide relief for increased costs
- 9 projects
- 795 units
- Only 4 are under construction (started before ULA)
- Others have not pulled permits
- Avg cost $716K/unit
- Avg ULA subsidy $69K/unit
- 6 are Prop. HHH
- ULA is helping provide relief for increased costs
April 5, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Projects with ULA funding commitments:
- 9 projects
- 795 units
- Only 4 are under construction (started before ULA)
- Others have not pulled permits
- Avg cost $716K/unit
- Avg ULA subsidy $69K/unit
- 6 are Prop. HHH
- ULA is helping provide relief for increased costs
- 9 projects
- 795 units
- Only 4 are under construction (started before ULA)
- Others have not pulled permits
- Avg cost $716K/unit
- Avg ULA subsidy $69K/unit
- 6 are Prop. HHH
- ULA is helping provide relief for increased costs
Some context on the claims in this quote aboute Measure ULA:
- 9 projects have received ULA funds. Only 4 are under construction -- all started a year before ULA was in effect.
- The dip in sales has been persistent, even after the court challenges to ULA were lost
- 9 projects have received ULA funds. Only 4 are under construction -- all started a year before ULA was in effect.
- The dip in sales has been persistent, even after the court challenges to ULA were lost
April 5, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Some context on the claims in this quote aboute Measure ULA:
- 9 projects have received ULA funds. Only 4 are under construction -- all started a year before ULA was in effect.
- The dip in sales has been persistent, even after the court challenges to ULA were lost
- 9 projects have received ULA funds. Only 4 are under construction -- all started a year before ULA was in effect.
- The dip in sales has been persistent, even after the court challenges to ULA were lost
Also, remember: developers aren't the only ones buying real estate. In fact, most buyers aren't builders.
So, yes, ULA lowers what builders can pay for land. But that won't lower prices, it will just help non-builders outbid them.
That’s not how you grow housing supply.
So, yes, ULA lowers what builders can pay for land. But that won't lower prices, it will just help non-builders outbid them.
That’s not how you grow housing supply.
April 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Also, remember: developers aren't the only ones buying real estate. In fact, most buyers aren't builders.
So, yes, ULA lowers what builders can pay for land. But that won't lower prices, it will just help non-builders outbid them.
That’s not how you grow housing supply.
So, yes, ULA lowers what builders can pay for land. But that won't lower prices, it will just help non-builders outbid them.
That’s not how you grow housing supply.
ULA also slows property tax growth, creating impacts beyond the City's boundaries.
We estimate that sales >$5M drive approx. 40% of LA prop tax growth. Cutting those sales in half cuts growth proportionally.
That means less funding for schools and county safety-net services.
We estimate that sales >$5M drive approx. 40% of LA prop tax growth. Cutting those sales in half cuts growth proportionally.
That means less funding for schools and county safety-net services.
April 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
ULA also slows property tax growth, creating impacts beyond the City's boundaries.
We estimate that sales >$5M drive approx. 40% of LA prop tax growth. Cutting those sales in half cuts growth proportionally.
That means less funding for schools and county safety-net services.
We estimate that sales >$5M drive approx. 40% of LA prop tax growth. Cutting those sales in half cuts growth proportionally.
That means less funding for schools and county safety-net services.
The same dynamic applies to commercial, like office reuse & retail repositioning. These were already hard to make work in LA. ULA has made them even harder.
We estimate ULA has reduced commercial/industrial sales by over 50%.
LA needs adaptive reuse. ULA is discouraging it.
We estimate ULA has reduced commercial/industrial sales by over 50%.
LA needs adaptive reuse. ULA is discouraging it.
April 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
The same dynamic applies to commercial, like office reuse & retail repositioning. These were already hard to make work in LA. ULA has made them even harder.
We estimate ULA has reduced commercial/industrial sales by over 50%.
LA needs adaptive reuse. ULA is discouraging it.
We estimate ULA has reduced commercial/industrial sales by over 50%.
LA needs adaptive reuse. ULA is discouraging it.
Many housing projects begin w/a major land purchase & end w/sale to a long-term owner. ULA taxes both ends, making it harder to buy sites & harder to exit successfully. We estimate ULA reduced multifamily sales by >60%. That makes housing production riskier & less attractive.
April 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Many housing projects begin w/a major land purchase & end w/sale to a long-term owner. ULA taxes both ends, making it harder to buy sites & harder to exit successfully. We estimate ULA reduced multifamily sales by >60%. That makes housing production riskier & less attractive.
Yes, interest rates and construction costs slowed deals everywhere. But we controlled for that in our analysis, and we found that high-value transactions in the City of LA dropped 30–50 percentage points more than in the rest of the County. That's the effect of ULA specifically.
April 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Yes, interest rates and construction costs slowed deals everywhere. But we controlled for that in our analysis, and we found that high-value transactions in the City of LA dropped 30–50 percentage points more than in the rest of the County. That's the effect of ULA specifically.
Historically, real estate sales in LA City have closely tracked those in the rest of the County.
(Spolier Alert: That's no longer true for sales over the ULA threshold, though it's still true for sales below.)
Here's what that looks like for sales below the ULA threshold 👇
(Spolier Alert: That's no longer true for sales over the ULA threshold, though it's still true for sales below.)
Here's what that looks like for sales below the ULA threshold 👇
April 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Historically, real estate sales in LA City have closely tracked those in the rest of the County.
(Spolier Alert: That's no longer true for sales over the ULA threshold, though it's still true for sales below.)
Here's what that looks like for sales below the ULA threshold 👇
(Spolier Alert: That's no longer true for sales over the ULA threshold, though it's still true for sales below.)
Here's what that looks like for sales below the ULA threshold 👇
LA’s Measure ULA passed with good intentions: tax high-value property sales to help low-income renters.
But the early evidence is sobering: transactions have collapsed, revenues have fallen far short, and housing projects are harder to build.
But the early evidence is sobering: transactions have collapsed, revenues have fallen far short, and housing projects are harder to build.
April 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
LA’s Measure ULA passed with good intentions: tax high-value property sales to help low-income renters.
But the early evidence is sobering: transactions have collapsed, revenues have fallen far short, and housing projects are harder to build.
But the early evidence is sobering: transactions have collapsed, revenues have fallen far short, and housing projects are harder to build.
Today, 59% of all plan checks at City of L.A. are for Single Famliy Home additions and new builds. Another 27% are for commercial, a significant portion of which is TI. A large portion of single family and commercial plan checks are excellent candidates for self-cert.
January 13, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Today, 59% of all plan checks at City of L.A. are for Single Famliy Home additions and new builds. Another 27% are for commercial, a significant portion of which is TI. A large portion of single family and commercial plan checks are excellent candidates for self-cert.
Someone on Bluesky is impersonating me. Please report this to the moderators if you have a moment.
December 22, 2024 at 4:26 AM
Someone on Bluesky is impersonating me. Please report this to the moderators if you have a moment.
Is Google trying to tell me something?
December 6, 2024 at 10:07 PM
Is Google trying to tell me something?