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Takeaway. Intra-household distribution of resources is pivotal for fertility outcomes. Policies that ignore payee identity risk missing the key margin.
Takeaway. Intra-household distribution of resources is pivotal for fertility outcomes. Policies that ignore payee identity risk missing the key margin.
Policy. Eligibility and payments were individual (not hh-level), akin to UBI debates. Results indicate that who receives the transfer matters for fertility, highlighting a potential tension between UBI-style transfers and pronatalist policy if the goal is to increase births.
Policy. Eligibility and payments were individual (not hh-level), akin to UBI debates. Results indicate that who receives the transfer matters for fertility, highlighting a potential tension between UBI-style transfers and pronatalist policy if the goal is to increase births.
Why ‘young’? Wartime and immediate postwar displacement often delayed marriage into the late 1940s. Women already of childbearing age during the war faced atypical constraints; younger cohorts were less directly affected—making the early–late contrast more informative for them
Why ‘young’? Wartime and immediate postwar displacement often delayed marriage into the late 1940s. Women already of childbearing age during the war faced atypical constraints; younger cohorts were less directly affected—making the early–late contrast more informative for them
Main result. When the recipient is a young woman—first eligible in the 1950s while still in childbearing years—completed fertility is lower by ~0.25–0.40 children relative to the corresponding gender-by-timing comparisons.
Main result. When the recipient is a young woman—first eligible in the 1950s while still in childbearing years—completed fertility is lower by ~0.25–0.40 children relative to the corresponding gender-by-timing comparisons.
Design. Triple-difference across: (1) women vs. men; (2) early-eligible (1950s) vs. late-eligible (1990s); (3) pre vs. post first eligibility. We allow heterogeneity by age at eligibility. Outcome: cumulative number of children (completed fertility).
Design. Triple-difference across: (1) women vs. men; (2) early-eligible (1950s) vs. late-eligible (1990s); (3) pre vs. post first eligibility. We allow heterogeneity by age at eligibility. Outcome: cumulative number of children (completed fertility).
Context. Some survivors qualified for large, lifelong reparations in the 1950s; others only in the 1990s, after fertility choices were largely complete. The groups had similar WWII experience. This yields an early–late contrast relative to the reproductive window.
Context. Some survivors qualified for large, lifelong reparations in the 1950s; others only in the 1990s, after fertility choices were largely complete. The groups had similar WWII experience. This yields an early–late contrast relative to the reproductive window.