Morgan Michaels
@morganmichaels.bsky.social
The regime carried on with its brutal air campaign while opposition forces continued assaults on their distracted enemy, leading to several strategic gains.
New report details patterns of violence in the immediate aftermath of the 28 March earthquake in Myanmar.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
New report details patterns of violence in the immediate aftermath of the 28 March earthquake in Myanmar.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
Assessing post-earthquake patterns of violence in Myanmar - IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
In the immediate aftermath of the 28 March earthquake, the regime continued its brutal air campaign and other violence against civilians while some opposition forces made significant strategic advances.
myanmar.iiss.org
June 1, 2025 at 12:13 AM
The regime carried on with its brutal air campaign while opposition forces continued assaults on their distracted enemy, leading to several strategic gains.
New report details patterns of violence in the immediate aftermath of the 28 March earthquake in Myanmar.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
New report details patterns of violence in the immediate aftermath of the 28 March earthquake in Myanmar.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
Multi-faceted test for the TNLA taking shape:
-Regime beginning to reverse TNLA gains
-Tensions flaring with the KIA and SSPP
-TNLA's main partner, the MNDAA, has dropped out of the fight (for now)
-Growing public outcry over TNLA policies and behavior
Critical days ahead.
-Regime beginning to reverse TNLA gains
-Tensions flaring with the KIA and SSPP
-TNLA's main partner, the MNDAA, has dropped out of the fight (for now)
-Growing public outcry over TNLA policies and behavior
Critical days ahead.
March 26, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Multi-faceted test for the TNLA taking shape:
-Regime beginning to reverse TNLA gains
-Tensions flaring with the KIA and SSPP
-TNLA's main partner, the MNDAA, has dropped out of the fight (for now)
-Growing public outcry over TNLA policies and behavior
Critical days ahead.
-Regime beginning to reverse TNLA gains
-Tensions flaring with the KIA and SSPP
-TNLA's main partner, the MNDAA, has dropped out of the fight (for now)
-Growing public outcry over TNLA policies and behavior
Critical days ahead.
Accurate appraisal of the grim situation in Myanmar.
More violence will exacerbate these problems, not solve them.
www.aspistrategist.org.au/myanmars-des...
More violence will exacerbate these problems, not solve them.
www.aspistrategist.org.au/myanmars-des...
Myanmar’s desperate condition: fragmentation, drugs, money-laundering and more | The Strategist
Myanmar was a key global site for criminal activity well before the 2021 military coup. Today, illicit industry, especially heroin and methamphetamine production, still defines much of the economy. No...
www.aspistrategist.org.au
March 19, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Accurate appraisal of the grim situation in Myanmar.
More violence will exacerbate these problems, not solve them.
www.aspistrategist.org.au/myanmars-des...
More violence will exacerbate these problems, not solve them.
www.aspistrategist.org.au/myanmars-des...
The Tatmadaw launched limited counter assaults in Mandalay, Shan, and Kachin with units from the LIDs and MOCs. It appears these divisions have been rebuilt using conscripts. The operations have achieved some success so far, especially against the TNLA at Taung Hkam in Shan State.
March 12, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The Tatmadaw launched limited counter assaults in Mandalay, Shan, and Kachin with units from the LIDs and MOCs. It appears these divisions have been rebuilt using conscripts. The operations have achieved some success so far, especially against the TNLA at Taung Hkam in Shan State.
There is a line of thinking that mounting opposition gains will eventually force the Myanmar military to negotiate for its own survival. But as I argue here, the regime is just as likely to go down with the ship, taking the state with it.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
Crossing the Rubicon: Are Myanmar’s ethnic armies prepared to go all in? - IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
Under relentless blockade and attack from the air, Myanmar’s opposition forces have no way to stabilise or develop their newly captured territories unless they either make peace with the regime or overthrow it.
myanmar.iiss.org
March 3, 2025 at 3:44 AM
There is a line of thinking that mounting opposition gains will eventually force the Myanmar military to negotiate for its own survival. But as I argue here, the regime is just as likely to go down with the ship, taking the state with it.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
New report asks what's next for Myanmar's ethnic armies now that they control the borderlands. Military victories haven't brought greater stability and there's no clear way to remedy this. More pressure on the centre won't necessarily push the regime to the table.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
Crossing the Rubicon: Are Myanmar’s ethnic armies prepared to go all in? - IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
Under relentless blockade and attack from the air, Myanmar’s opposition forces have no way to stabilise or develop their newly captured territories unless they either make peace with the regime or overthrow it.
myanmar.iiss.org
February 25, 2025 at 3:13 AM
New report asks what's next for Myanmar's ethnic armies now that they control the borderlands. Military victories haven't brought greater stability and there's no clear way to remedy this. More pressure on the centre won't necessarily push the regime to the table.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...
Reposted by Morgan Michaels
The Arakan Army (AA) is undoubtedly one of the most successful rebel forces fighting the junta in Myanmar. Unsurprisingly, the group has countless admirers amongst the country’s revolutionaries and some outside observers. 1/3
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature... (@newhumanitarian.bsky.social)
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature... (@newhumanitarian.bsky.social)
Rohingya civilians recall alleged Arakan Army abuses
The most well-known armed group taking on Myanmar’s ruling junta faces renewed accusations of rape, night raids, and murder.
www.thenewhumanitarian.org
January 31, 2025 at 10:23 AM
The Arakan Army (AA) is undoubtedly one of the most successful rebel forces fighting the junta in Myanmar. Unsurprisingly, the group has countless admirers amongst the country’s revolutionaries and some outside observers. 1/3
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature... (@newhumanitarian.bsky.social)
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature... (@newhumanitarian.bsky.social)
Eight months for the AA to capture the final lone outpost in northern Rakhine State. The snowball theory of Tatmadaw collapse is demonstrably false. Instead we see a reverse snowball effect, with remaining regime bases/assets significantly harder to overcome.
December 9, 2024 at 9:49 AM
Eight months for the AA to capture the final lone outpost in northern Rakhine State. The snowball theory of Tatmadaw collapse is demonstrably false. Instead we see a reverse snowball effect, with remaining regime bases/assets significantly harder to overcome.
Reposted by Morgan Michaels
The news that the MNDAA has carrier out 6 executions is deeply troubling. It is proven that the death penalty does not improve justice but its inhuman and cruel. myanmar-now.org/en/news/koka...
Kokang army executes six alleged criminals in town under its control
One of the condemned was a woman found guilty of killing her husband by MNDAA authorities in Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang Special Region in northern Shan State
myanmar-now.org
December 7, 2024 at 4:00 AM
The news that the MNDAA has carrier out 6 executions is deeply troubling. It is proven that the death penalty does not improve justice but its inhuman and cruel. myanmar-now.org/en/news/koka...
Myanmar's conflict may become 'ripe' for dialogue if the regime wins back territory and the EAOs realize they've hit a limit.
A lot could happen to prevent this scenario, but the point is that, for the first time since 2021, dialogue is no longer inconceivable.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...
A lot could happen to prevent this scenario, but the point is that, for the first time since 2021, dialogue is no longer inconceivable.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...
Regime election plans and prospects for dialogue in Myanmar - IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
Following major opposition victories, neither side appears willing to talk. But pressure from Beijing, including for ceasefires and a regime-organised election, could shake up the conflict outlook.
myanmar.iiss.org
December 6, 2024 at 6:55 AM
Myanmar's conflict may become 'ripe' for dialogue if the regime wins back territory and the EAOs realize they've hit a limit.
A lot could happen to prevent this scenario, but the point is that, for the first time since 2021, dialogue is no longer inconceivable.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...
A lot could happen to prevent this scenario, but the point is that, for the first time since 2021, dialogue is no longer inconceivable.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...
Analyses that paint China only as a villain in Myanmar ignore basic reality. The stunning advances of Operation 1027 were won with Chinese weapons. China has and will still lobby the regime to recognize the authority of the Brotherhood groups over their vastly expanded territories.
December 6, 2024 at 5:58 AM
Analyses that paint China only as a villain in Myanmar ignore basic reality. The stunning advances of Operation 1027 were won with Chinese weapons. China has and will still lobby the regime to recognize the authority of the Brotherhood groups over their vastly expanded territories.
Reposted by Morgan Michaels
Kicking things off on Bluesky with some photos from my recent trip to Karen State in Myanmar.
In April, the Karen National Liberation Army overran a major Myanmar military base, seizing control of Thin Gan Nyi Naung town and a stretch of the Asian Highway, a vital trade artery with Thailand.
In April, the Karen National Liberation Army overran a major Myanmar military base, seizing control of Thin Gan Nyi Naung town and a stretch of the Asian Highway, a vital trade artery with Thailand.
December 4, 2024 at 3:43 AM
Kicking things off on Bluesky with some photos from my recent trip to Karen State in Myanmar.
In April, the Karen National Liberation Army overran a major Myanmar military base, seizing control of Thin Gan Nyi Naung town and a stretch of the Asian Highway, a vital trade artery with Thailand.
In April, the Karen National Liberation Army overran a major Myanmar military base, seizing control of Thin Gan Nyi Naung town and a stretch of the Asian Highway, a vital trade artery with Thailand.
Reposted by Morgan Michaels
A very digestable analysis of the complex current situation in Myanmar by IISS's @morganmichaels.bsky.social
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...
Regime election plans and prospects for dialogue in Myanmar - IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
Following major opposition victories, neither side appears willing to talk. But pressure from Beijing, including for ceasefires and a regime-organised election, could shake up the conflict outlook.
myanmar.iiss.org
December 5, 2024 at 5:39 AM
A very digestable analysis of the complex current situation in Myanmar by IISS's @morganmichaels.bsky.social
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...