Monty Kelly
@montykelly.bsky.social
I rely on your podcast as the basis for my investment decisions. Investor in asymmetric stocks. Intrigued by the Kelly Criterion and the Monty Hall problem. Do your own DD!
The American car parc, already old, is going to get much older due to tariffs, as customers now have an incentive to keep existing cars on the road longer. Very bullish for #DRVN.
March 27, 2025 at 2:59 AM
The American car parc, already old, is going to get much older due to tariffs, as customers now have an incentive to keep existing cars on the road longer. Very bullish for #DRVN.
Peak to trough I was down a bit more than 15% over the last month. My portfolio is almost entirely leveraged special situations, like I've been posting about, and big software companies that I bought in late 2022. Both sides got hit by the tariff scare.
March 25, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Peak to trough I was down a bit more than 15% over the last month. My portfolio is almost entirely leveraged special situations, like I've been posting about, and big software companies that I bought in late 2022. Both sides got hit by the tariff scare.
Started a new position in #LESL this week below $0.82. New management, no debt maturities till 2028, no need for store growth. This is a simple blocking and tackling story.
March 25, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Started a new position in #LESL this week below $0.82. New management, no debt maturities till 2028, no need for store growth. This is a simple blocking and tackling story.
After three weeks of pointless government posturing, it looks like the #CLMT DOE loan has been re-confirmed by the new administration. Onwards.
#CLMT got their DOE loan approved, but then filed for an ATM offering the day after, spiking the good news. Even if they issue the full equity amount, it doesn't move the story too much. Guidance for the year is strong and this should rip this year.
Big move today in $CLMT. The widely telegraphed DOE loan has to be awarded any day now if it's going to happen before the presidential transition.
February 13, 2025 at 12:22 AM
After three weeks of pointless government posturing, it looks like the #CLMT DOE loan has been re-confirmed by the new administration. Onwards.
In other tariff related news, #RYAM disclosed their exposure to potential tariffs levied on Canada: a hit of $3.5m a month. On the other hand, adjusted EBITDA was pre-announced at $222 million in 2024, up from $139 million the year before.
February 5, 2025 at 2:17 AM
In other tariff related news, #RYAM disclosed their exposure to potential tariffs levied on Canada: a hit of $3.5m a month. On the other hand, adjusted EBITDA was pre-announced at $222 million in 2024, up from $139 million the year before.
Big dive for #SUP on the tariff mess, as they manufacture all their North America volume in Mexico. So, too, do substantially all their competitors, so it's a mess for the whole industry. But if tariffs persist, it will be harder for #SUP to wriggle free due to its leverage.
February 3, 2025 at 9:18 PM
I'm working through the #EDR.MC investor day presentation, but they are guiding to €120m in FCF in FY '26 (starting April 1 2025), or about €1 per share. It's still absurd for a company of this quality to trade at a double digit FCF yield.
January 31, 2025 at 5:06 PM
I'm working through the #EDR.MC investor day presentation, but they are guiding to €120m in FCF in FY '26 (starting April 1 2025), or about €1 per share. It's still absurd for a company of this quality to trade at a double digit FCF yield.
A big day for #CLPT, up 22% on a PT increase from $17 to $30 from a research firm called Lake Street. The sell side giveth and the sell side taketh, but today I appreciateth the gain.
Great news for fintwit's favorite $CLPT today, as their partner $QURE received approval for a Huntington's Disease treatment. This is the second win for $CLPT this year after the AADC decision with Kebilidi from $PTCT.
January 22, 2025 at 2:21 AM
A big day for #CLPT, up 22% on a PT increase from $17 to $30 from a research firm called Lake Street. The sell side giveth and the sell side taketh, but today I appreciateth the gain.
One of my largest, and longest held positions, #EDR.MC has an investor day coming soon. They're expected to issue new long term guidance, after nailing the guidance they first issued all the way back in '21.
January 15, 2025 at 7:16 PM
One of my largest, and longest held positions, #EDR.MC has an investor day coming soon. They're expected to issue new long term guidance, after nailing the guidance they first issued all the way back in '21.
I've started a small position in #DOOO. During the pandemic, anyone who ever wanted a jet ski, a side by side, or a snowmobile bought one. Unit sales are now at multi-decade lows and the channel has tons of new & used inventory that needs to be worked through.
January 15, 2025 at 7:12 PM
I've started a small position in #DOOO. During the pandemic, anyone who ever wanted a jet ski, a side by side, or a snowmobile bought one. Unit sales are now at multi-decade lows and the channel has tons of new & used inventory that needs to be worked through.
January 15, 2025 at 6:50 PM
#CLMT got their DOE loan approved, but then filed for an ATM offering the day after, spiking the good news. Even if they issue the full equity amount, it doesn't move the story too much. Guidance for the year is strong and this should rip this year.
Big move today in $CLMT. The widely telegraphed DOE loan has to be awarded any day now if it's going to happen before the presidential transition.
January 15, 2025 at 6:48 PM
#CLMT got their DOE loan approved, but then filed for an ATM offering the day after, spiking the good news. Even if they issue the full equity amount, it doesn't move the story too much. Guidance for the year is strong and this should rip this year.
At its best, portfolio management is an ongoing process of confirmation and refutation. If your investment thesis gets refuted, you should sell, as I did today in #RGS. If your thesis gets confirmed, then you should buy more.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 AM
At its best, portfolio management is an ongoing process of confirmation and refutation. If your investment thesis gets refuted, you should sell, as I did today in #RGS. If your thesis gets confirmed, then you should buy more.
Today I sold out of a long term holding, #RGS. For the last 18 months, they've been focused on franchising, cost cutting, refinancing their debt and deleveraging. All of that was on track.
January 7, 2025 at 4:10 AM
Today I sold out of a long term holding, #RGS. For the last 18 months, they've been focused on franchising, cost cutting, refinancing their debt and deleveraging. All of that was on track.
The light vehicle SAAR for December rose to a multi-year high at 16.8m units annualized. Bullish for $SUP #SUP.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/vehi...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/vehi...
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 S...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
January 4, 2025 at 1:40 AM
The light vehicle SAAR for December rose to a multi-year high at 16.8m units annualized. Bullish for $SUP #SUP.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/vehi...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/vehi...
Big move today in $CLMT. The widely telegraphed DOE loan has to be awarded any day now if it's going to happen before the presidential transition.
January 4, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Big move today in $CLMT. The widely telegraphed DOE loan has to be awarded any day now if it's going to happen before the presidential transition.
We should get a thread going with everyone's favorite stock for 2025. I've shared a few of mine already, but here's a few more:
$DRVN: the stock has been cheap for 18+ months due to problems at their car wash business, which now seems to be turning around. They may or may not sell this unit.
$DRVN: the stock has been cheap for 18+ months due to problems at their car wash business, which now seems to be turning around. They may or may not sell this unit.
December 20, 2024 at 2:48 AM
We should get a thread going with everyone's favorite stock for 2025. I've shared a few of mine already, but here's a few more:
$DRVN: the stock has been cheap for 18+ months due to problems at their car wash business, which now seems to be turning around. They may or may not sell this unit.
$DRVN: the stock has been cheap for 18+ months due to problems at their car wash business, which now seems to be turning around. They may or may not sell this unit.
I started a position this week in $VAL. The thesis has been covered widely elsewhere so there's no need to elaborate. The well choreographed air pocket in leading edge drillship deals for the next few months flushed out all the levered holders, it's been a long way down to find real money buyers.
December 11, 2024 at 2:08 AM
I started a position this week in $VAL. The thesis has been covered widely elsewhere so there's no need to elaborate. The well choreographed air pocket in leading edge drillship deals for the next few months flushed out all the levered holders, it's been a long way down to find real money buyers.
Great news for fintwit's favorite $CLPT today, as their partner $QURE received approval for a Huntington's Disease treatment. This is the second win for $CLPT this year after the AADC decision with Kebilidi from $PTCT.
December 11, 2024 at 2:02 AM
Great news for fintwit's favorite $CLPT today, as their partner $QURE received approval for a Huntington's Disease treatment. This is the second win for $CLPT this year after the AADC decision with Kebilidi from $PTCT.
Solid results from $WOOF yesterday. Vet services and consumables growing well, and at some point the discretionary categories will turn up again. There's high leveage but the term loan doesn't mature till March 2028.
December 6, 2024 at 7:56 PM
Solid results from $WOOF yesterday. Vet services and consumables growing well, and at some point the discretionary categories will turn up again. There's high leveage but the term loan doesn't mature till March 2028.
I invest in two types of companies:
- highly levered situations in OK businesses. Like $SUP
- high quality, long term compounders.
In both cases, I'm looking for an investment thesis that produces 3x in 5 years. I tend to hold the compounders longer than the mean reversion plays.
- highly levered situations in OK businesses. Like $SUP
- high quality, long term compounders.
In both cases, I'm looking for an investment thesis that produces 3x in 5 years. I tend to hold the compounders longer than the mean reversion plays.
December 5, 2024 at 9:54 PM
I invest in two types of companies:
- highly levered situations in OK businesses. Like $SUP
- high quality, long term compounders.
In both cases, I'm looking for an investment thesis that produces 3x in 5 years. I tend to hold the compounders longer than the mean reversion plays.
- highly levered situations in OK businesses. Like $SUP
- high quality, long term compounders.
In both cases, I'm looking for an investment thesis that produces 3x in 5 years. I tend to hold the compounders longer than the mean reversion plays.
My favorite asymmetric set up right now is $SUP. Stock is down, maybe due to tax loss selling and the 3x lowering of the 2024 guide. My view:
- 2024 guide is driven by SAAR. Mgmt can't control that.
- Refi done. Debt paydown is clear and will only take a few years.
- All production in low cost area
- 2024 guide is driven by SAAR. Mgmt can't control that.
- Refi done. Debt paydown is clear and will only take a few years.
- All production in low cost area
December 5, 2024 at 12:24 AM
My favorite asymmetric set up right now is $SUP. Stock is down, maybe due to tax loss selling and the 3x lowering of the 2024 guide. My view:
- 2024 guide is driven by SAAR. Mgmt can't control that.
- Refi done. Debt paydown is clear and will only take a few years.
- All production in low cost area
- 2024 guide is driven by SAAR. Mgmt can't control that.
- Refi done. Debt paydown is clear and will only take a few years.
- All production in low cost area
Setting up my BlueSky. Here to talk about stocks.
December 5, 2024 at 12:20 AM
Setting up my BlueSky. Here to talk about stocks.