Michael Tippett 🎃
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mktippett.bsky.social
Michael Tippett 🎃
@mktippett.bsky.social
1.8K followers 300 following 190 posts
Minor bug fixes and performance improvements
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mktippett.bsky.social
Announcement- The Data Library will soon shut down. Click here to learn more. IRI/LDEO Climate Data Library The IRI Data Library is a powerful and freely accessible online data repository and analysis tool that allows a user to view, analyze, and download hundreds of terabytes of climate-related data through a standard web browser. It is a powerful tool that offers the following capabilities at no cost to the user: • access any number of datasets; • create analyses of data ranging from simple averaging to more advanced EOF analyses using the Ingrid Data Analysis Language; • monitor present climate conditions with maps and analyses in the Maproom; • create visual representations of data, including animations; • download data in a variety of commonly-used formats, including GIS-compatible formats.
November 12, 2025 at 7:08 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
Statistical methods matter: The 5-kt increments in best-track intensity data have a substantial negative impact on quantile estimates and quantile regression. Using the right jitter (adding small random numbers, not drinking too much coffee) can help
Quantile regression coefficient estimates (blue lines) from synthetic data (a) without jitter, (b) with jitter uniformly distributed on the interval ±1.94 kt, and (c) with jitter uniformly distributed on the interval ±2.5 kt. The true quantile regression coefficient value is −1 (red dashed line). Dashed gray lines are 95% confidence intervals. Solid blue circles indicate statistical significance at the 5% level.
November 5, 2025 at 7:01 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
We found upward trends in the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of the most intense tropical storms (not new) and broad decreases in LMI during El Niño conditions (new?)
Atlantic LMI quantile regression (QR) coefficients for the (e) trend and (f) Niño-3.4. Colors indicate start year shown in legend. 95% confidence intervals are shown (red dashed lines) for the 1982–2024 coefficients. Filled circles indicate statistically significant (5% level) coefficients. Quantile values are shown for reference in (e) and (f) for the full 1982–2024 data.
November 5, 2025 at 7:01 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
calvin and hobbs playing calvinball whose only permanent rule is you cannot play it the same way twice
September 8, 2025 at 12:27 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
and the bibtex entry is handy too
bibtex entry provided by google scholar
August 26, 2025 at 12:33 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
I go straight to google scholar these days
screenshot of what you see when you click cite in google scholar entry
August 26, 2025 at 12:32 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
did they really spend 7 million from arpa on sheriff radios?
Hill Country COMMUNITY JOURNAL County provides ARPA Fund update Rosa Lavender Jul 14, 2024 Veteran's Pathway and the new first responder emergency radio system for Kerr County were the major projects funded by the $10.2 million in funds received by Kerr County in 2021 from the American Rescue Plan Act. Three years ago, many in the local conservative community warned against keeping the ARPA funding because of possible "strings attached" and repeatedly urged county leaders to return the money to the federal government. Almost $7 million of the $10.2 million has been spent on the county's new radio system which, as of last week, is about 50 percent complete, according to Sheriff Larry Leitha.
July 11, 2025 at 6:36 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
also
Hill Country COMMUNITY JOURNAL County provides ARPA Fund update Rosa Lavender Jul 14, 2024 E3 Veteran's Pathway and the new first responder emergency radio system for Kerr County were the major projects funded by the $10.2 million in funds received by Kerr County in 2021 from the American Rescue Plan Act. Three years ago, many in the local conservative community warned against keeping the ARPA funding because of possible "strings attached" and repeatedly urged county leaders to return the money to the federal government. Almost $7 million of the $10.2 million has been spent on the county's new radio system which, as of last week, is about 50 percent complete, according to Sheriff Larry Leitha. edited
July 8, 2025 at 4:58 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
CFSv2 here www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFS...
CFSv2 forecasts of 3-month average of Nino 3.4 showing mostly cool conditions for the upcoming winter
July 6, 2025 at 4:07 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
And in chiclet form
NMME Nino 3.4 forecasts from June 2023 t present in chiclet form. Verification time is x-axis and lead time is y-axis. Some hints of cooling for the coming winter
July 6, 2025 at 4:07 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
Latest NMME ENSO forecasts are cooler (0.25–0.5 °C) than last the ones from last month. (I don't have CFSv2)
NMME Nino 3.4 forecasts made at beginning of July (solid lines) and June (dashed lines) for the following 12 months. The latest forecasts are cooler, and one model is doing its own thing
July 6, 2025 at 4:07 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
New York State Police officers carry Emily Feiner of Nyack out of a town hall event held by Rep. Mike Lawler at John F. Kennedy Catholic High School in Somers, N.Y. May 4, 2025. Several people were removed from the town hall after members of Lawler's staff accused them of being disruptive. Seth Harrison/The Journal News
May 5, 2025 at 12:06 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
english.elpais.com/spain/2025-0...
April 28, 2025 at 11:20 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
HARRIS CLAIM: Trump wants a "20% tax on everyday goods" that would cost families "about $4,000 more a year." FACT-CHECK: True, but needs context Trump has proposed a universal "10-20%" tariff on all U.S. imports, from cars and electronics to wine, food products and many other goods. He has also proposed a 60% tariff on imports from China. Vice President Harris called the plan "Trump's sales tax," though the former president has not explicitly proposed such a tax. Independent economists, however, say the proposed import tariffs would unquestionably result in higher prices for American consumers across the board. The precise financial impact on families is hard to predict and estimates vary widely -- from additional annual costs per household of $1,700 to nearly $4,000, depending on the study. Trump has not called for any tax hikes for American families. He has proposed exempting Social Security benefits and tips from taxation, as well as extending individual tax cuts enacted in 2017. -ABC News' Devin Dwyer
April 10, 2025 at 3:13 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
or choke them?
March 24, 2025 at 7:57 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
A humorous cartoon illustrating the transformation of a research manuscript through peer review. The top panel shows a simple drawing of a basic car labeled “Your manuscript as submitted.” The bottom panel, labeled “… and after peer review and revision,” shows an absurdly modified and over-complicated vehicle with multiple added features like extra wheels, a claw, circular and triangular windows, a top-mounted laser cannon, and a horse hitch. Various notes around the car mock common peer review suggestions such as “more replicates needed,” “please add necessary circular and triangular windows,” and “introduction and discussion should be significantly expanded.” The image is by REDPEN/BLACKPEN (http://redpenblackpen.jasonya.com).
March 23, 2025 at 10:38 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
My fourth point is that all of us, but universities in particular, must stand firm in insisting that, when there are lines to be drawn, we must and will be the ones to do it. Not outside actors. Not politicians, not pressure groups, not the media. Ours is and must remain a system of self-government.
March 23, 2025 at 9:09 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
OTD 2005 Lee C. Bollinger gave the annual Benjamin N. Cardozo Lecture before the Association of the Bar of the City of New York on academic freedom president.columbia.edu/content/card...
We gather at a time of enormous stress for colleges and universities across the country. It is a time of contentious debate on campuses -- among students, among faculty, and within administrations. Some of these debates concern matters of national or global importance. Many are joined -- even incited -- by outside forces, from political pressure groups to the mainstream media to increasingly strident voices on the Web.
March 23, 2025 at 8:58 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
marie tharp smoking a cigarette and giving no f’s with a map in background
March 9, 2025 at 8:29 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
I was looking for a way to visualize 2x2 contingency tables recently and discovered mosaic plots (I have no training in stats)
four mosaic plots corresponding to 2x2 contingency tables for RI storm counts conditional on ENSO state and early/late periods
February 24, 2025 at 10:21 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
February 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
February 9, 2025 at 5:46 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
Is now the time to be looking at ENSO forecasts? Not really but why not
A plume of Nino 3.4 forecasts from the NMME (North American Multimodel Ensemble) showing monthly values and going through next winter. Some very modest leaning toward cool conditions (La Niña) next winter but SPRING PREDICTABILITY barrier
February 6, 2025 at 5:29 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
The Boulder labs seem to be down
map with inset showing list of NOAA labs in Boulder CO
February 5, 2025 at 11:13 AM
mktippett.bsky.social
exactly what I don’t want popping up every five minutes 🤓
December 13, 2024 at 9:56 PM