Russian media on Trump’s call with Putin.

In response to this sick post from Medvedev the depraved, I revisited the poteru(dot)net data, there’s 31k entries with age data at their deaths. There’s 81 x 18 year olds, 14.5% of the russian dead are under the Ukrainian conscription age. There’s even 5 guys in their 70’s!

The TikTok battalion certainly don’t put themselves at risk. I ran a regional analysis of Russian KIA on the hard data from poteru(dot)net. Chechens are the 3rd least likely to die in Ukraine.

Breaking: Russia runs out of friends.

Running this from the bottom up, I went with a fixed WIA:KIA ratio of 3:1 & a variable Poteru capture rate. The 3:1 WIA:KIA ratio qualitatively feels about right for Russia. For example they have no discernable "golden hour" policy, or fully equipped field operating theatres.

I first ran this top-down, starting with the
Ukr MoD
numbers & at different WIA:KIA ratios. You'll see a lower Poteru data capture rate = higher Russian casualties, vice versa for the WIA:KIA ratio. The test is, are the Poteru data capture rates plausible? I'd say the range broadly is.

There's 2 variables we don't know - the Russian WIA:KIA ratio, & the Poteru data capture rate. It's extremely unlikely for example that 100% of Russian deaths in Ukraine are captured by Poteru. It's also pretty unlikely that Russia WIA:KIA ratios get close to western levels.

The other thing I took a look at was to use the Poteru data as a way of sense checking the headline Russian casualty numbers from
@DefenceU, here's today's.

There's some weird outliers; Chechens look like they're more protected than St Petersburgers for instance. Again, at a political level this could well be true. Or maybe Chechens really do only show up to make Tik-Tok videos.

We've long suspected that the burden of Russian war-criming in Ukraine falls disproportionally on Russia's ethnic minorities, & this confirms it. So for example if you're Tuvan, you have a 50 x higher (!!) chance of dying in Ukraine than someone from Moscow.

One of the things Poteru does is give you the Russian region the dead soldier came from, where possible. This data is available for almost 51K of the entries, so that's a pretty good sample to run with.

Yawn. They said the same thing over 2 years ago.

This Olaf?

Bluesky now has over 10 million users, and I was #1,147,240!

I have a nice variation on that one.