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Ming the Merciless Fella
@mingthemerciless.bsky.social
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Russian media on Trump’s call with Putin.
February 13, 2025 at 1:18 PM
In response to this sick post from Medvedev the depraved, I revisited the poteru(dot)net data, there’s 31k entries with age data at their deaths. There’s 81 x 18 year olds, 14.5% of the russian dead are under the Ukrainian conscription age. There’s even 5 guys in their 70’s!
December 4, 2024 at 8:34 PM
The TikTok battalion certainly don’t put themselves at risk. I ran a regional analysis of Russian KIA on the hard data from poteru(dot)net. Chechens are the 3rd least likely to die in Ukraine.
December 4, 2024 at 7:01 PM
Breaking: Russia runs out of friends.
December 2, 2024 at 3:05 PM
Running this from the bottom up, I went with a fixed WIA:KIA ratio of 3:1 & a variable Poteru capture rate. The 3:1 WIA:KIA ratio qualitatively feels about right for Russia. For example they have no discernable "golden hour" policy, or fully equipped field operating theatres.
November 30, 2024 at 9:15 PM
I first ran this top-down, starting with the
Ukr MoD
numbers & at different WIA:KIA ratios. You'll see a lower Poteru data capture rate = higher Russian casualties, vice versa for the WIA:KIA ratio. The test is, are the Poteru data capture rates plausible? I'd say the range broadly is.
November 30, 2024 at 9:15 PM
There's 2 variables we don't know - the Russian WIA:KIA ratio, & the Poteru data capture rate. It's extremely unlikely for example that 100% of Russian deaths in Ukraine are captured by Poteru. It's also pretty unlikely that Russia WIA:KIA ratios get close to western levels.
November 30, 2024 at 9:15 PM
The other thing I took a look at was to use the Poteru data as a way of sense checking the headline Russian casualty numbers from
@DefenceU, here's today's.
November 30, 2024 at 9:15 PM
There's some weird outliers; Chechens look like they're more protected than St Petersburgers for instance. Again, at a political level this could well be true. Or maybe Chechens really do only show up to make Tik-Tok videos.
November 30, 2024 at 9:15 PM
We've long suspected that the burden of Russian war-criming in Ukraine falls disproportionally on Russia's ethnic minorities, & this confirms it. So for example if you're Tuvan, you have a 50 x higher (!!) chance of dying in Ukraine than someone from Moscow.
November 30, 2024 at 9:15 PM
One of the things Poteru does is give you the Russian region the dead soldier came from, where possible. This data is available for almost 51K of the entries, so that's a pretty good sample to run with.
November 30, 2024 at 9:15 PM
Yawn. They said the same thing over 2 years ago.
November 29, 2024 at 12:43 AM
November 28, 2024 at 10:41 PM
November 17, 2024 at 9:48 PM
This Olaf?
November 17, 2024 at 11:47 AM
Bluesky now has over 10 million users, and I was #1,147,240!
September 20, 2024 at 1:01 PM
October 3, 2023 at 12:28 PM
I have a nice variation on that one.
September 22, 2023 at 5:33 AM