Milo McBride
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milomcbride.bsky.social
Milo McBride
@milomcbride.bsky.social
Geopolitics of Energy Technology and Minerals
Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
An incredible graphic on the scale of uncertainty in US data center forecasts and its impact on load growth.

Don Draper: "So we scare everyone into thinking exponential power demand is inevitable and the grid will break without more coal and gas-fired generation"

#AI
#Data
#EnergySky
April 17, 2025 at 4:45 PM
What other net-zero technologies is it used in? I guarantee you none.

Cobalt's other application is in high-grade steel alloys that are not required in solar panels, wind turbines, or nuclear power plants.

Source from World Bank:
February 9, 2025 at 12:34 AM
It is always relevant.

Star Trek’s egalitarian, post-scarcity vision of techno-utopia takes place after an apocalyptic era of destruction (2026-2053).
February 1, 2025 at 3:03 AM
They are only marginally behind the UK in sales and % share (UK in 2nd, FR in 3rd).

More importantly, they are far ahead in battery tech. Given the politics Brussels in right now, competiveness is more important for long-term decarbonization than early-stage sales. These industries need to thrive.
January 31, 2025 at 7:28 PM
France is an undervalued European EV leader.

They've mandated parking lots be 50% solar-covered to power EV chargers (among other innovations).

They lead the EU in solid-state battery manufacturing - the only tech that will compete with China in the long-term.

#EVs
#Europe
#EnergySky
January 31, 2025 at 5:38 PM
China's solar exports to 140 BRI countries skyrocketed to 8 GW in 2024.

Expect this trend to accelerate: by 2030, Chinese renewables will be 80% of new power installations across the top BRI countries.

Good for climate, bad for US LNG.

#China
#BRICs
#EnergySky

Data via Wood Mackenzie
January 27, 2025 at 2:36 PM
My apologies for the acronym Olympics! I tried to squeeze in the word count.

For more on these conclusions, here's a recent working paper on this subject that maps all next-gen clean tech in the U.S. and gauges their proximity to market (see right hand column). Link here: bit.ly/40C6x9J
January 19, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Europe's battery sector sees a post-Northvolt haze of cancellations + pauses.

When the US imposes higher tariffs on Chinese batteries, it will prompt a glut in the European market and further stress manufacturers. (It happened with PV ~2018)

#Europe
#Geopolitics
#EnergySky

via BNEF
December 20, 2024 at 11:23 PM
"It's an absolutely shit situation" - Norway's Energy Minister

European power prices clash with politics. Following Germany's dunkelflaute, Norway + Sweden prompt re-negotiating interconnection rules.

Reminder of how little battery storage the EU has built...

#Geopolitics
#EnergySky
December 18, 2024 at 12:02 PM
Top @rhodiumgroup.bsky.social analysis on IRA repeal.

Among many important points for the new admin to consider - rollback being inflationary to reducing US O&G exports - the most salient is the scale of investment at risk, *$435 billion*

#EnergySky

rhg.com/research/tru...
December 17, 2024 at 7:42 PM
China's auto market is now 50-50 BEV/ICE, an incredible signal for EV penetration and the domestic gasoline market -which the IEA expects to decline next year.

Driving global crude demand growth, China consumes 15% of global oil. Will Chinese petchem and/or kerosene offset this?

#EnergySky
December 8, 2024 at 9:56 PM
Why am I more coocoo for #lithium puffs than other transition metals? The scale of demand growth is unparalleled and the opportunities for unconventional production via #DLE or #flowback water are immense.

Some great data from BNEF's latest minerals report.

#EnergySky
December 6, 2024 at 4:19 PM